Decision Support Summary 27 June 2003

Agenda List of Papers Key Results- Presentations and Discussion Issues and Future Actions 27 June 2003

Papers Trajectory Prediction ATM Capabilities Common Trajectory Prediction Capability for Decision Support Tools (Swierstra, Green) Aircraft Performance Modeling for Air Traffic Management Applications (Suchkov, Swierstra, Nuic) Improving Trajectory Forecasting Through Adaptive Filtering Techniques (Mondoloni, Liang) ATM Capabilities Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Multi-Strategy Traffic Management Decision Support Capability (Wanke, Taber, Miller, Ball, Fellman) Free-Flight Program Update (Post, Knorr) 27 June 2003

Papers ATM Capabilities (Continued) Initial Evaluation of URET Enhancements to Support TFM Flow Initiatives, Severe Weather Avoidance, and CPDLC (Kirk, Bolczak) Route Selection Decision Support in Convective Weather: A Case Study of the Effects of Weather and Operational Assumptions on Departure Throughput (DeLaura, Allan) Presenting Uncertainty to Controllers and Pilots (Nicholls, Battino, Marti, Pozzi) 27 June 2003

Papers Conflict Detection/Resolution ATM Infrastructure Lateral Conflict Resolution in the Medium-Term- Achieving a Required Probability of Conflict (Irvine) Investigating Fundamental Issues in Lateral Conformance Monitoring Using a Fault Detection Approach ( Reynolds, Hansman, Hong Li) ATM Infrastructure The Big Iron (Williams, Mondoloni, Liang, Bradford, Jehlen) Air Traffic Control Command Monitoring System Based on Information Integration (Zhengping Ma, Deguang Cui, Peng Cheng) 27 June 2003

Session Chairs; Thank You! Hartmut Fricke Kevin Corker Steve Green Colin Meckiff Andy Price 27 June 2003

Observation Decision support track generally: Did not emphasize long-term, future concepts in decision support tools Did emphasize near to mid-term (needed) evolutionary concepts and capabilities 27 June 2003

Results Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty: What is it? How to reduce? How to live with it in decision support tools? Quality and standardization of input data remains a key issue in improving accuracy of predictions for decision support tools (DSTs) and simulations , e.g.: Controller intent Pilot intent Take-off weight Aircraft performance data (intellectual property and liability issues are significant vis-a vis access) 27 June 2003

Results Trajectory Prediction: some solutions proposed to address uncertainty “Closed loop solutions” implemented as active advisories to reduce intent errors “Common trajectory prediction services” for multiple DSTs and domains Application of Kalman Filter approach to dealing with wind error in cruise phase of flight Need for coordinated research to set future direction reinforced 27 June 2003

Results Automation Capability/Weather Information Integration to help human decision makers deal with weather situations Concepts presented for utilization of current and forecast weather information in decision support tools: Better enable controllers to assist pilots with weather avoidance Deal with weather-related traffic flow situations Enhance departure management Initial steps in getting away from “fair weather tools” More generally, integration of individually-developed decision support capabilities to realize “end-to-end” solutions, e.g Automated dissemination of TFM initiatives, conflict detection/resolution consideration those initiatives and other conflicts, data link delivery of resultant clearances) 27 June 2003

Results Decision making under uncertainty is a reality and will continue to be so; must develop ways to deal with it Focus of most ATM research has been on reducing uncertainty at the data input level Communication and expression of uncertainty (how, why and to whom) likely to be an increasingly important issue for all categories of service providers, users and pilots Automation capabilities that support decision makers must also account for uncertainty (e.g. in weather forecasts, demand, capacity) 27 June 2003

Results Better Traffic Flow Management decision making likely will require simultaneous application of multiple strategies Research has generally focused on single answer solutions (rerouting, ground delay, miles-in-trail) Increased attention to looking at the cumulative impact of multiple, possible strategies Need to ensure that individual domain-level solutions/capabilities (e.g. departure management, arrival management, en route integrated impact assessment) will integrate together in coherent concept 27 June 2003

Results Conflict Detection/Resolution Framework proposed for quantifying conflict resolution operational acceptance based on intended use Key conclusion: if trying to resolve conflicts out to 20 minutes, need to use a separation criteria (in excess of 5 miles) based on level of resolution performance is needed operationally Framework proposed for investigating conformance monitoring by posing it as a Fault Detection problem; possible use in assessing alternative conformance monitoring approaches 27 June 2003

Results (concluded) ATM Infrastructure: what might the future look like? Architecture concept postulated for implementing advanced autonomous aircraft concept of operations Centralized data repository and security (SWIM) Centralized decision support on ground Cost-effective aircraft decision support capabilities Strong dependence on data link 27 June 2003

Issues/Future Steps Scope and content of future research direction on trajectory prediction A trajectory prediction action plan as been proposed to the Eurocontrol/FAA R&D committee Recommend that this initiative be used to agree upon and chart future, joint research Recommended research areas for additional emphasis: Decision making under uncertainty Automation/weather integration Farther-term ATM concepts for DSTs: do we have a research-gap issue? 27 June 2003

Issues/Future Steps Concern: data link communications development status Key element of virtually all, proposed future concepts ATM researchers have key role to play in defining future services roadmap and in quantifying benefits to strengthen Business Case As more information and capabilities become available to support user decision making, we need to be better able to : Evaluate the effectiveness of solutions (are they really better?) Define criteria by which to make decisions based on new info Ensure we consider all players e.g. need to define roles of AOC and pilots in TFM decisions explicitly discussed during our sessions 27 June 2003