The Aftermath of the Syrian Civil War: Perspectives from Lebanon By Ibrahim Jouhari

Is it over? civil wars have a ways of lingering The Lebanese 75-90 civil war took years and countless conferences to really end! Personally, I don’t see a full political settlement and the return of refugees before 2019

Outline: three different subjects 1- the refugees crisis 2- the economic impact 3- the political angle

1- the refugees!

1- The refugees crisis in Lebanon The Impact on Lebanon: 18 billion cost from 2011 to 2015 GDP fall from 8-10 to 1-2% poverty rate has reached 30% overall unemployment rate doubled to 20% unemployment among Lebanese youth is at 30% added pressure on an already straining infrastructure

1- refugees:

2- Post war economic impact: Syrian and Lebanese economies have been closely linked Syria is the transit portal of Lebanon to the Arab world: 1- more than 20% of total Lebanese exports 2- about 6% of total imports transit by land through Syria, mainly to and from the Arab markets

Land trade from Lebanon to arab countries

2- the economic impact: The effect on tourism, of the war tourism significantly dropped in Lebanon.

2- the economic impact: An end of the civil war in Syria will reinvigorate a suffocating Lebanese economy Exportation and importation by land will increase, lowering cost Tourism will increase, especially via land routes. Rebuilding war torn Syria could cost 200$ billions! At least part of these contracts will benefit Lebanon Lebanese government CIP working to prepare Lebanon to paly a key logistic role in reconstruction

3- the political angle ‘nice’ neighbors! Lebanon a battleground Syrian hegemony after The 75-90 civil war

Bashar’s Assad iron grip 2000-2005 After the death of Hafez Assad in 2000, Bashar took over More direct and forceful meddling in Lebanon Growing Lebanese and international discontent Culminating with the assassination of PM Rafik Hariri 14 march and the cedar revolution And the withdrawal of Syrian forces

14 March 2005

3- Political developments The Syrian regime’s relation with Lebanon is linked to the final peace settlement. Who will rule, and how? Will it be a more open power sharing system, or more of the same, with some cosmetic changes? Currently, it seems an Assad regime might survive in some form or another

3- politics in a post war in Syria era How will the two ‘allies’, Syria and Iran interact? Three possible scenarios: they will complement each other’s role to carve an even bigger share of power in Lebanon they might counter balance each other’s power, leaving room for the more liberal and west leaning parties Or they might clash. Indeed, there have been a few reports of sporadic clashes between the two in Syria?

Conclusion an end of the Syrian civil war would surely benefit Lebanon economically on the short and medium terms. The political effects are more complex and depend on many different factors, especially on the final settlement, agreement entails and who will rule. Nevertheless, the current humanitarian, political, and economic situation are unsustainable THE FASTER THE WAR END THE BETTER IT IS FOR EVERYONE!