Yoshihiro Ito Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Public partnership between Japan and Mexico on disaster mitigation of large earthquake and tsunami hazards: the SATREPS project Yoshihiro Ito Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University

Earthquake & Tsunami Disaster Sendai Airport The most tragically damage was owing to the tremendous tsunami radiated from the source region. Tsunami attacking near the Sendai Airport

Run-up height of the tsunami along the Sanriku coast The tsunami wave climbing over the tsunami embankment with a height of 10 m in Taro-cho, Iwate. The shape of the coast line is effectively prone to amplify a amplitude of tsunami. Maximum run-up height reached to 35 or almost 40 meters.

Which knowledge did we lack ? When will the earthquake occur ? What will happen during the earthquake ? What will happen after the earthquake ? How can we evacuate from Tsunami ?

Our forecast of focal areas before the 2011 EQ. based on past events Estimation before the 2011 EQ. Japan Trench Japan Trench Yamanaka and Kikuchi (2011)

? Megathrust earthquake in Mexico ?? –New science project toward disaster mitigation for Future Megathrust Earthquake and Tsunami– 2009 ? ???? 2013

Japan International Cooperation Agency SATREPS : Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development Japan Science and Technology Agency Japan International Cooperation Agency Total Budget: $478M JPY (~$86M MXN)

Observations and Monitoring The Project for Hazard Assessment of Large Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Mexican Pacific Coast for Disaster Mitigation Group A: Investigation into the seismic coupling in the plate interface based on seismic monitoring and geodetic observation data A-1: offshore observation Deployment of ocean bottom seismometer and pressure recorder; Investigation of tsunami deposit near the trench A-2:onshore observation Stability of more onshore seismic and geodetic statinos Acquisition of seismic and geodetic data for slow earthquakes using new monitoring system; Evaluation of seismic coupling model Group A: Observations and Monitoring Project Purpose Group B: Modeling of Earthquakes and Tsunami Group B: The construction of earthquake/tsunami scenarios based on the earthquake/tsunami modeling B-1:Earthquake modeling Modeling of earthquake cycle, strong motion, slow earthquakes, and thermal structure B−２：Tsunami modeling Modeling of tsunami’s source, height, inundation; Study of Tsunami monitering system by using onshore sites. Construction of Earthquake/Tsunami scenarios and hazard maps. Group C: Outreaches & Educations to Stakeholders Group C: The development of disaster mitigation education program meeting the local needs C-1: Vulnerability and risk assessment Assessment of structural and socio-economical vulnerability; Development and operation of tsunami evacuation, risk maps and evacuation guide signs C-2: Development and deploy of education programs Development and deployment of disaster mitigation education program; Archive and outreach of past disastrous earthquakes and tsunami 　　Spread and stability of education program and activities to raise awareness of earthquake/tsunami disaster mitigation

Offshore observation to know future focal areas of earthquakes Ocean Bottom Seismic and Geodetic network above the source area Ocean bottom seismometer ( To measure earthquakes) Ocean bottom Pressure Recorder ( To measure uplift or subsidence) OBPR w/ GPS-A ( To measure horizontal displacement)

Tsunami Disaster Mitigation : Educational Programs Awareness and preparedness of the population through different educational activities Educational materials for disaster mitigation developed from hazard maps and local needs

Dvelopment of Earthquake Science and Policy toward Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Comparative study of Japan and Mexico : Essentially understanding of earthquake in subduction zones Making reliable earthquake and tsunami models Rupture area for the future Nanaki EQ. We need to accumulate knowledge toward the future Nankai Megathrust Earthquake and Tsunami as well as Guerrero Gap Nam et ipsa scientia potestas est !! (Sir Francis Bacon, 1597)