THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS, & THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS Amy E. Smithson, PhD Senior Fellow

OVERVIEW THE BASICs CHEMICAL TERRORISM PROLIFERATION CONCERNS WEAPONS HISTORICAL ROLE CHEMICAL TERRORISM CASE STUDIES PROLIFERATION CONCERNS THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS AUSTRALIA GROUP CWC

CHEMICAL WARFARE IN A NUTSHELL SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND, TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION MOST WIDELY PROLIFERATED TACTICAL WEAPON ROLE IN CONFLICTS: WWI = SIGNIFICANT WWII = MARGINAL IRAN-IRAQ WAR = SPORADIC, BUT IMPORTANT

THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS TWO APPROACHES: UNITARY BINARY KEY PROPERTIES: MODE OF ACTION: (e.g., INHALATION) LETHALITY/TOXICITY CAVEAT: THEORETICAL v. ACTUAL STATE: (e.g., AEROSOL, LIQUID) PERSISTENCE

ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS TYPES OF AGENTS: CHOKING BLISTER BLOOD NERVE INCAPACITANTS TWO TYPES OF DELIVERY: POINT SOURCE LINE SOURCE

DELIVERY SYSTEMS

TIME TO INITIAL SYMPTOMS CHEMICAL AGENTS TYPE/ AGENT EXPOSURE ROUTE TIME TO INITIAL SYMPTOMS PERSISTENT? BLOOD/ CYANIDE INHALATION 15 SECONDS NO CHOKING/ PHOSGENE SKIN/ INSTANT BLISTER/ MUSTARD 1-10 MINUTES YES NERVE/ SARIN VX INCAPACITATING/ CN RAPID

STEPS TO ACQUISITION RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PRECURSOR PROCUREMENT PRODUCTION: PILOT LARGE SCALE (BULK AGENT) TESTING WEAPONIZATION STORAGE INCORPORATION INTO DOCTRINE & EXERCISES Alcohol, promoter DF

CHEMICAL DEFENSE DETECTION INDIVIDUAL PROTECTION MEDICAL THERAPY: EARLY = KEY MODEL HAZARD => AVOID CONTAMINATION INDIVIDUAL PROTECTION CUMBERSOME EFFECTS FIGHTING CAPABILITY MEDICAL THERAPY: AUTOINJECTORS DECONTAMINATION

STATUS AT THE STATE LEVEL CWC MEMBERS ALBANIA CHINA IRAN INDIA LIBYA PAKISTAN RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES CWC = 188 MEMBERS CWC HOLDOUTS EGYPT ISRAEL NORTH KOREA SYRIA

ACTIVE CHEMICAL PROGRAM WITH STOCKS SYRIA ACTIVE CHEMICAL PROGRAM WITH STOCKS CHEMICAL PROGRAM DATING TO 1970s RELIANT ON FOREIGN ASSISTANCE RECEIVED CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PRECURSORS FROM RUSSIA, EGYPT 1980s: POSSIBLY DEVELOPED DOMESTIC NERVE AGENT CAPACITY MULTIPLE PRODUCTION SITES SUSPECTED STOCKPILE OF MUSTARD, SARIN, VX, POSSIBLY WEAPONIZED DEGRADED SCUD, AERIAL DELIVERY CAPACITY Al-Safir

APPEAL TO TERRORISTS KNOW-HOW SUPPLIES ON THE OPEN MARKET COOKBOOKS PATENT LITERATURE MA LEVEL EDUCATION SUPPLIES ON THE OPEN MARKET CHEMICALS PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT DISPERSAL SYSTEMS AS “EASY” AS RADIOLOGICAL DEVICES MASS CASUALTY OR MASS TERROR WASHINGTON, DC: 1,000 KG OF SARIN, LINE SOURCE ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHT 3,000 TO 8,000 DEAD (OTA, 1993) QUICK IMPACT

AUM SHINRIKYO’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM 1985-1995: $30 MILLION 100 INVOLVED AGENTS SYNTHESIZED VX ─ SOMAN TABUN ─ MUSTARD SARIN ─ HYDROGEN CYANIDE SARIN PRODUCTION GOALS 70 TONS IN 40 DAYS 2 TONS DAILY, 17.6 PINTS/BATCH 2 SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS

AUM’S INEPTNESS PROBLEMS AT SATYAN 7 BACKWARDS SPRAYER NOVICE MASKS WORKER EXPOSURES 3 OFF-PREMISES LEAKS NOVEMBER 1994 SAMPLES BACKWARDS SPRAYER NOVICE MASKS SUBWAY ATTACK 30% STRENGTH DISPERSAL METHOD NOT THE WESTERN SAFETY MODEL

AL QAEDA & CO. BIN LADEN’S HOLY DUTY MANDATE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF JIHAD PLOTS: ROME, LONDON, AMMAN AFGHANISTAN CHEMICAL COOKBOOKS + LABS CNN DOG TAPE TAKIFIRI CHLORINE ATTACKS (2007) OTHER ATTEMPTS TO ACQUIRE OTHER MATERIALS CROPDUSTER INQUIRIES

TERRORIST EVENTS WORLDWIDE: 1997-2006 TOTAL EVENTS: 23,135 BOMBS: 12,806 ARMED ATTACKS: 5,798 ASSASSINATIONS: 1,689 KIDNAPPINGS: 1,393 ARSON: 786 HOSTAGE 58 HIJACKING 32 OTHER/UNKNOWN: 524 BIOLOGICAL: 19 CHEMICAL: 27 FOOD/WATER SUPPLY: 6 RADIOLOGICAL: 0 Source: RAND/MIPT Terrorism Incident Database

TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: I AID VIA FORMER WEAPONEERS ABOUT 6,500 EXPERTS OVER 12 FACILITIES NEXT GENERATION AGENTS: R&D BEGAN IN 1970s NOVICHOK #5: 5-8 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS VX RED ARMY APPROVED TONS PRODUCED NOVICHOK #7: 10 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS SOMAN 10s OF TONS PRODUCED CONCEPT: BURY IN AGROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY CZECH AGENTS APPEALS TO “LONE WOLF” ACTOR(S)

TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: II NEW DISCIPLINES, TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION, SPEED OF ADVANCES CROSSING OF CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS NOVEL NONLETHALS PATHOGEN DATE SYNTHESIZED # OF BASE PAIRS POLIO 2003 7.741 1918 INFLUENZA 2005 13,500 MYCOPLASMA GENITALIUM GENOME 2010 1,080,000 SMALLPOX ?????? 186,102 Polio virus took 2 years 1918 influenza took a few weeks

TECHNICAL PLUS UPS: III MICRO-REACTORS HIGH SURFACE AREA TO REACTANT RATIO ENERGY, COST EFFICIENT MORE PRECISE CONTROL = SAFER FASTER GREENER PROBLEM-SOLVING TECHNOLOGY: ON DEMAND PRODUCTION REDUCE DEVELOPMENT TIME HIGHLY, EXOTHERMIC REACTIONS MAKE UNSTABLE PRODUCTS DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE PRODUCTS NUMBERING UP = MULTI-TON PRODUCTION

                                     POISONOUS SHORT CUTS                       

INDUSTRIAL + TRANSPORT SECURITY COMMERCIAL PLANTS GATES + FENCES + GUARD(S)  NO GUN(S) EMPLOYEE SCREENING? SAFETY LABELS; OTHERWISE, VARIABLE PORTS: ADVANCE NOTIFICATION RAILWAYS: TANKERS = SAFETY LABELS TARGETS: EASILY SCOUTED GO TO LOCAL BAR TACTICS: EXPLOSIVES, REACTANTS (H20)

INDUSTRIAL SABOTAGE CONSEQUENCES 855 3,973 1,430 4,713 2,306 586 123

THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS 1899 HAGUE CONVENTION 1925 GENEVA PROTOCOL AUSTRALIA GROUP 1997 CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM SOUND DEFENSES INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION

AUSTRALIA GROUP ORIGINS: HINDER USE IN 198Os IRAN-IRAQ WAR HARMONIZATION OF EXPORT CONTROLS: 63 CHEMICALS DUAL-USE EQUIPMENT ACTIVITIES: END-USER CERTIFICATES NOTIFICATION OF REFUSALS NO UNDERCUT POLICY INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE 40 COUNTRIES + EC

CWC PROVISIONS BANS DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTION, STOCKPILING & USE ALLOWS DEFENSE ALL MEMBERS DESTROY: NONDISCRIMINATORY DECLARATIONS INSPECTIONS: ROUTINE MILITARY INDUSTRY CHALLENGE AUTOMATIC EXPORT CONTROLS SCHEDULE II CHEMICALS RIOT CONTROL AGENTS: NOT IN WARFARE YES FOR DOMESTIC RIOT CONTROL

CWC BENCHMARKS 188 MEMBERS INSPECTIONS: 4,167 IN OVER 81 STATES AGENT DESTROYED: 62% WEAPONS/CONTAINERS DESTROYED: 45% 70 PRODUCTION FACILITIES: CLOSED 43 DESTROYED 21 CONVERTED

CWC DIFFICULTIES 10-YEAR DESTRUCTION DEADLINE MISSED: U.S. & RUSSIA WILL NOT MEET 2012 (OR 2021) DISTRIBUTION OF INSPECTIONS DECLARATIONS & DOMESTIC IMPLEMENTATION PROMPT FROM UN RES. 1540

CWC SHORTCOMINGS U.S. EXEMPTIONS: NO CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS NATIONAL SECURITY LABORATORY ANALYSIS NO CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS EXPANSION OF EXPORT CONTROLS TO SCHEDULE III CHEMICALS RIOT CONTROL LOOPHOLE? NOT KEEPING UP WITH TECHNICAL ADVANCES: NOVICHOKS MICROREACTORS APPLICABILITY TO SUB-NATIONAL ACTORS ENFORCEMENT