The global relevance of Australia’s water policy innovations Jason Alexandra – Alexandra and Associates ACIAR 2015

Summary of the challenge! Sustain 9 billion plus within planetary boundaries constraints of: reducing carbon emission, no new vast continents, a changing climate, intense competition for water, meeting the needs of nature, end of abundant fossil energy.

Millions of pumps and cascades of dams remodel the world’s rivers, catchments and aquifers - mostly for irrigation

Critical climate impacts - Climate chaos? Mostly through water

International partnerships Australian national water reforms have focused on the MDB and its problems! Or Northern Australia and its potential? This talk focuses on – The MDB Tasmania International partnerships

Difficult transitions - Australia’s MDB reforms – adaptive watershed and water governance?

MDB – reflects a nation’s changing relationships with nature Dreamtime and the next 60000 years Occupation and colonisation Navigation - shipping Federation – a fair deal for SA? Irrigation and economic development Integrated water resources policy Ecological restoration and care of nature International Obligations Next?

A brief history of Australian water policy 1890’s – 1980’s Water resource development 1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows, water markets, corporatisation and cost recovery National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms commitment to reform, e-flows and markets 2008 to present – Water Act Reforms – Murray Darling Basin Authority – Basin Planning Water development frontiers in the north and south 2007/08 water market trends Both 2006/07 and 2007/08 water seasons have proven that the theory of markets works when applied to water As water has become scarce during drought, water has moved from low value agriculture to higher value agriculture Water market has assisted irrigators with permanent plantings to manage their businesses through the drought

Water reforms after two decades? Great, good or average? Or just keep on “muddling through”… “best in the world” “Australian Triumphalism” or “MDB in crisis” humility…too early to tell – Plans are not achievements – can the lessons be transferred Commencement is dependent on the content of states WRPs: Where interim and transitional WRPs are silent on water trading provisions the water trading rules will be in force in these areas from the commencement of the Basin Plan Where Interim and transitional WRP’s have water trading rules that are inconsistent with the Basin Plan, these WRPs will override trading provisions within the Basin Plan The MDBA does not know the magnitude of the consistency issue

Reforms follow droughts Variability of inflows: 1895-2011 As measured at Bourke on the Darling and Euston on the Murray below the Murrumbidgee Figure from MDBA poster 2010

Use of long term averages...“all averages are lies” Cullen Yet SDL and diversion limits based on “long term averages” as the unit of measure Figure from MDBA poster 2010

Water policy contested – constructive conflict

Irrigation – 70% of water use - most in MDB Powerful vested interests and political lobby - half the profit in Australian agriculture & horticulture, from 0.2% of land (NLWRA 2002) 14

Turning the ideologies and trajectory of the water agencies around after a hundred years of “development” and progress 1890 1912 1934 1956 1978 2000 6,000 12,000 18,000 Capacity (GL) Murray Darling

Water resources development trajectory Grand plans to develop Australia’s northern rivers from the Cape to the Kimberley – the 1000 dams agenda Australian Government intention to ‘bridge the gap’ and investments under Water for the Future are expected to reduce the economic and social impacts

Future scenarios for Tasmanian irrigation Future scenarios for Tasmanian irrigation... Moderate scale innovation with global relevance? SMALL SCALE distributed

BASIN-PLAN-IN-CONFIDENCE 22/09/2010 Tasmania – wild, natural, historic and wet! %50 land in protected areas Irrigation development under COAG reforms Economically accountable Be ecologically sustainable? Avoid ecological degradation – e.g. water quality, species loss, salinity etc Be integrated into catchment management

Water - reshaping the landscape!

New irrigation developments in Tassie – a $billion in infrastructure… What about knowledge and innovation?????

Build on natural advantages – capable people, established growers and industries, communities, infrastructure, experience: Focus on innovation, value add and markets

Value of agricultural production Source: ABS 4610

Value of production from water use ?

The innovation challenge Assumptions Total water use is 500GL by 2020 Maximum estimate of current productivity (10% per year) The innovation challenge

Planning R&D in Tasmania – 3 scenarios – growth, muddling through decline Commencement is dependent on the content of states WRPs: Where interim and transitional WRPs are silent on water trading provisions the water trading rules will be in force in these areas from the commencement of the Basin Plan Where Interim and transitional WRP’s have water trading rules that are inconsistent with the Basin Plan, these WRPs will override trading provisions within the Basin Plan The MDBA does not know the magnitude of the consistency issue

Foresighting Workshop 3-4 April 2014 Need innovation

Foresighting workshop RD&E priorities On farm productivity New enterprises and business models Natural resource management Innovation, extension and entrepreneurs On farm systems (productivity, farming systems, precision tech, new crops) On-Farm productivity Farm economics and optimisation of options Precision irrigation and irrigation systems Water use efficiency   Business models, investment, processing and exporting Business models Attracting capital investment Branding and marketing Tasmanian products Natural resource management Landscape health and ecosystem protection Maintaining soil productivity Drainage and waterlogging, salinity and other environmental risks Interaction between on-farm and landscape scales RD&E arrangements Arrangements and institutions for RD&E Effective innovation Education and adoption Full report http://www.tia.tas.edu.au/irrigation

Water and lack of it is a competitive advantage for Australia Water and lack of it is a competitive advantage for Australia. As a “first world country in a third world continent” our knowledge of developing water policy, governance and management regimes suitable for working in a highly variable climate within a largely arid and semi arid continent should be recognised as an important asset. In a world preparing for increasing water scarcity (at least in the mid latitudes) and increased competition for available water, Australia’s history and geography give us valuable experience.

Map of estimated agricultural vulnerability to climate change – note impacts are based on poverty, population and climate impacts

Climate is hotter and drier How to deal with risk Global average temperature Satellite estimate of soil moisture Australian average temperature

Challenges Water planning under uncertainty – stationarity is dead. Past not useful for predicting the future Climate impact and risk management

Surge in cereal and oil prices Commodity prices (US$/ton) Global nexus of demand for food, energy, and water Surge in cereal and oil prices Commodity prices (US$/ton) Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007.

Challenges Contested views and values Systematic conservation planning Climate change and conservation paradigms? End of stationarity Water planning under uncertainty Climate drives catchment changes Climate impact and risk management

Develop capacity for robust water governance under uncertainty Use scenarios to plan for different futures – transitions, new economies, climate change, etc

Directions Innovations, (technical, institutional and policy) Partnerships Knowledge coalition Industry, civil society and community involvement

Water (IWRM) and river basin governance involves culture, practice, policy and politics. People and power dimensions

Globally water is a strategic resource. Australian water policy evolved in response to a harsh, variable climate Opportunities for shared learning but critical evaluations required – but needs people, commitment, knowledge