AMPO Conference | October 19, 2017 Using a MPO Travel Demand Model to Inform and Change Zoning & Funding Decisions AMPO Conference | October 19, 2017

Context and Introduction Nuts and Bolts of Analysis Project Outcomes Agenda Context and Introduction Nuts and Bolts of Analysis Project Outcomes

Setting the Stage

Introduction into Williamson County, TN Show map of TN and highlight Williamson County Explain that our study was primarily concerned with unincorporated portion of the county

Introduction to Williamson County, TN Educational Attainment Unemployment Rate Average ACT Score Median Home Value Williamson 55% 3.2% 24.6 $419,000 Davidson 36% 3.1% 18.7 $248,000 Maury 18% 3.7% 19.6 $190,000 Robertson 16% 3.9% 19.3 $184,000 Rutherford 28% 3.4% 20.8 $199,000 Sumner 25% 21.3 $232,000 Wilson 27% 3.3% $255,000 Tennessee 23% 3.6% 19.9 $185,000 “Williamson County surpasses the rest of the Nashville MSA with educational attainment, average earnings, population growth, and job growth.” Educational attainment – percent of adults with BS or higher (National Average 33%) Unemployment Rate (Nationally 4.3%) ACT Score (National Average 21) Median Home Value (Nationally $202,000)

Population Growth Over the next 25 years, Williamson County is expected to see an additional 353,000 residents, 35% of which will come to the rural areas of the county.

Economic Climate From 2010-2015, Williamson County employment grew by approximately 25,000 jobs, leading the Nashville region. Over the next 25 years, the total county employment is expected to grow by an additional 161,000 jobs. All of middle TN is growing, not just Williamson County – maybe show graphic with commute flows between counties in MPO area According to recent American Community Survey data, one out of every three Middle Tennessee commuters works outside of their home county. The number grows to nearly 1 in 2 when looking at residents outside of Nashville/Davidson County. Traffic everywhere is getting worse, people looking for other ways to get around besides interstates Byproduct of success

Byproducts of Success As attractiveness and growth continue to bring more residents and more employers, the burden falls on the infrastructure that supports them. Highlight the fact that traffic is getting worse everywhere. People bypassing interstates and using county roads for inter-county commutes Nearly 35K commute out of Williamson County for employment Nearly 50K commute in to Williamson County for employment

The Growing Traffic Problem While all of the major corridors see high daily traffic volumes, the rural roads have also continued to see increases, specifically in the eastern portions of the county. Traffic patterns show disparate growth across the county, with more traffic trending towards the eastern side of the county.

Financial Need $736 million $514 million Capital Improvements $291 million State Routes $223 million County Roads $222 million Operational Improvements $67 million State Routes $155 million County Roads Recent planning efforts undertaken identify nearly $400 million in needed transportation improvements. Talk about recent planning efforts and needs identified in the MTP (2011) and MCS (2016) Ultimately tasked with figuring out funding and regulatory mechanisms for making needed improvements and controlling growth, respectively $378 million for County-owned facilities alone

Financial Needs 64% ($357 million) of the county budget goes towards the school system. Total budget for County Highway Department is $11.5 million with $5.7 going towards highway and bridge maintenance alone. Major funding sources include: Wheel Tax (34%) Gas and Motor Fuel Tax (30%) Business Tax (28%) Property Tax (4%)

Analysis

Travel Demand Model Analysis Urban Growth Boundary The Nashville Area MPO maintains an activity-based model for the 7-county area, which includes Williamson County. Travel demand within the model was first aggregated by vehicle class and then segmented for passenger vehicles based on 4 types of residential locations. City County Outside

Model Analysis Results Approximately 52% of the people traveling on the major county roads are not county residents. 2010 base model

Zoning Review and Model Results Review of allowable zoning in the rural areas showed that over the next 25 years, the unincorporated portions of the county have the capacity to develop at nearly 4x the rate seen in the past. County residents are expected to be predominant user of major county roadways by 2040 even though regional traffic continues to remain a sizable share of the overall traffic. Historic rate = 400 units/year Future rate = 1500 units/year 2040 model run scenario

Nuts and Bolts of Our Analysis – Funding Options   Revenue Potential Technical Ease Proportionate to Demand Legal Burden Property Tax Positive Negative Residents Transportation Utility - Countywide Neutral Residents/ Non-Resident Transportation Utility - Unincorporated Wheel Tax Gas Tax Sales Tax Impact Fees New Residents/ Evaluating different funding mechanisms to pursue Evaluating need for a comprehensive zoning update

Funding Options and Impacts Additional Analysis Traffic Volumes and Congestion Growth in the County Land Use and Zoning Tools Funding Options and Impacts

Project Outcomes

Proposed Strategies Land Use and Regulatory Tools Land Use. Revisit land use policies through a comprehensive plan update. Prioritization. Target strategic investment priorities to support land use policies. Mitigation.  Short-term and long-term traffic mitigation tools. Transportation Implementation Strategies Funding. Pursue funding tools to achieve the strategic investment priorities. Capital Improvement Plan. Strategic investment priorities tied to CIP and budget process. Coordination and Education Strategies Cooperation.  Explore interlocal approaches and positioning for funding. Lobbying and education.

Project Outcomes In the short-term, the County is opting to use property tax given it’s ease of implementation and relatively low tax rate. Long-term, the County wants to pursue lobbying for legislative authority for transportation utility fees. The County is also initiating a comprehensive look at their zoning and underlying growth policies. The County is establishing a Capital Improvement Program, which will tie into their annual budgeting process.

Project Outcomes Able to make unique use of the travel demand model to build a case for funding needs Lots of engagement of steering committee, planning commission, highway commission, and public Created buy in from stakeholders and county executives for changing the mechanisms in place and overall increasing the funding Options for further research: With land use component model – you could change zoning to see changes in user types on roadways Major highway improvements versus county improvements (does making improvements to major roadways free up capacity on local roads) Quantifying funding demand for all municipalities to come up with real estimate of cost/hh

Special Thank You