The heat goes on – Prospects for the warmer world 5 th CarboEurope-IP Meeting Poznań, Poland 7-12 October, 2007 The heat goes on – Prospects for the warmer world ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Ouverture Does the heat go on? Will the heat go on? Prospects for the future – Another day in paradise? 5. If there’s anything I can do…

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM (2007)

Ouverture Does the heat go on? Will the heat go on? Prospects for the future – Another day in paradise? 5. If there’s anything I can do…

Eleven of the last twelve years belonged to the top twelve globally warmest years in the 165-year observation period. Source: Jones (2007) Source: IPCC AR4 WG2 SPM (2007)

Thermal classification for months and years Normal range for 1971 – 2000 /Warsaw Okecie/ Years Year Source: Lorenc, IMGW web page

Warmest consecutive 12-month periods at the Potsdam secular meteorological station since the beginning of observations in 1893. Source: Kundzewicz, Józefczyk & Österle; Warmest 12 consecutive months on record at the Potsdam meteorological station, Germany. Weather, Oct. 2007 -5 5 10 15 20 25 T [°C] Jul 2006 Dec 2006 Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Months Tmean for 1961-1990 [°C] Tmean [°C] 2006 - 2007

Warmest consecutive 12-month periods for 24 German stations since 1951. Source: Kundzewicz, Gerstengarbe, Werner & Fricke, The heat goes on – extraordinary warming in Germany (submitted to Tellus) Mean air temperature of consecutive 12-month periods for Northern Hemisphere, land only, January 1850 – May 2007. Source: Kundzewicz, Gerstengarbe, Werner & Fricke, The heat goes on – extraordinary warming in Germany (submitted to Tellus)

Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM (2007)

IPCC SAR (1995) „discernible” human influence IPCC FAR (1990) little evidence of detectable anthropogenic influence on climate IPCC SAR (1995) „discernible” human influence IPCC TAR (2001) „Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations” IPPC AR4 (2007) „Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”

Ouverture Does the heat go on? Will the heat go on? Prospects for the future – Another day in paradise? 5. If there’s anything I can do…

Projected global average temperature changes relative to 1980–1999 Projected global average temperature changes relative to 1980–1999. Multi-model projections for the B1 (top), A1B (middle) and A2 (bottom) averaged over decades 2020–2029 (center) and 2090–2099 (right). Left - uncertainties (relative probabilities of warming from different studies). Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM (2007)

Klima-Horror (BILD, 5 Feb.) Noch nie hat es jemand so deutlich gesagt: Unser Planet stirbt – wir Menschen sind schuld daran! Klima-Apokalypse (tz, 23 Feb.) Uns bleiben nur noch 13 Jahre …

Ouverture Does the heat go on? Will the heat go on? Prospects for the future – Another day in paradise? 5. If there’s anything I can do…

Arctic satellite images, (a) September 1979, (b) September 2005, (c) September 2025? Source: NASA, 2005 Source: Imagination, 2006

Retreating mountain glaciers: Chacaltaya (Andes) and Gangotri (Himalaya) (IPCC AR4 WG2 TS)

Pasterze 9/15/2018

9/15/2018

Three categories of water problems: Too little Too much Too dirty 2002 floods in Europe Damage - 20 billion Euro Three categories of water problems: Too little Too much Too dirty can be exacerbated by climate change Summer drought of 2003 in Europe

Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations (IPCC AR4 WG2 TS)

Wine and global warming In all wine regions of France, during the last 15 years wine quantity and quality indices have increased (IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch.1) Alcohol concentration of wine in Alsace (Duchéne and Schneider, 2004)

Ouverture Does the heat go on? Will the heat go on? Prospects for the future – Another day in paradise? 5. If there’s anything I can do…

[The long and winding road…] The EU’s objective: - keep global average temperature increase below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels (in case of a global and comprehensive agreement - by 30% by 2020); reduce globally by up to 50 % by 2050 [The long and winding road…]

9/15/2018

ADAPT ! In many places, winter precipitation increasingly falls as rain rather than snow. It may jeopardize winter sports, especially in lower skiing domains.

Living with floods (Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia)

Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood risk maps & damage maps DIRECTIVE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL on the assessment and management of floods {SEC(2006) 66} Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood risk maps & damage maps Flood risk management plans

John Schellnhuber (personal communication): We have to avoid the unmanageable and to manage the unavoidable

POL-WET CARBOEUROPE SITE Thank you