The Dutch Touch: How Holland Managed to Cut Crime Presentation for the Safer Sweden Foundation, Amsterdam,19 December 2017 Jaap de Waard The Hague: Ministry of Justice & Security j.de.waard@minvenj.nl 19 December 2017

What are we going to do during this presentation? Personal introduction and backgound The Netherlands in a nutshell Crime trends in The Netherlands Crime trends in a number of other industrialised countries How can we explain the crime drop? Effective policing: what works in NL? Effective rehabilitative interventions: what works in NL? Effective situational crime prevention: what works in NL? Conclusions

Personal introduction and background Information analyst at the Research and Documentation Center, Dutch Ministry of Justice Policy advisor at the Strategy Unit, Dutch Ministry of Justice Head of the Secretariat of the European Crime Prevention Network (EUCPN), European Commission, Brussels Senior policy advisor at the Unit for General Crime Policy, Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice Research fellow at the International Victimology Institute (INTERVICT), Tilburg University, the Netherlands. Personal ambition to stimulate the utilisation of evidence based scientific insights into the policy making process

The Netherlands in a nutshell 41,543 sq km Coastline: 415 km Population: 17,002,093 Capital: Amsterdam, 1.044 million Urban population: 83% Independence: 23 January 1579 Legal system: based on civil law system incorporating French penal theory GDP: € 678.5 billion GDP per capita: € 37,900 Unemployment rate: 6.5% Internet users: 16.490 million Illicit drugs: major European producer of synthetic drugs, including ecstasy, and cannabis cultivator, important gateway for cocaine, heroin and hashish entering Europe.

Some recent crime trends in The Netherlands I In 2016 the Dutch police registered nearly 930 thousand crimes In 2016 the police registered 29 percent fewer crimes as compared with the year 2007 This decrease is seen in virtually all types of crime The sharpest decrease (by half) relative to 2007 in vandalism and public order offenses Property offenses saw a 21 percent decline

Some recent crime trends in The Netherlands II Registered crime and victimization trends in The Netherlands, 1980 – 2014, index 1990=100

Some recent crime trends in The Netherlands III Total number of victims of homicide, 1997 – 2016

Crime trends in a number of other industrialised countries There has been a significant and prolonged ‘’crime drop’’ in The Netherlands and many other industrialised countries This crime drop has been observed in property crime (vehicle theft, domestic burglary, theft from cars, shoplifting, street robbery, and pickpocketing) and violent crime (assault, sexual assault, rape, homicide and manslaughter) The extent and nature of the crime drop appear to be more similar between similar countries (for example The Netherlands and England and Wales) The extent of the evidence is such that the similarities are unlikely to be the result of coincidence. Explanations must therefore be sought mainly in causes shared by all industrialised countries Striking is the strong decline in the number of juvenile suspects in The Netherlands and a number of other countries. So, how can we explain this? And what can Sweden ’learn’ from this?

Why has the crime drop occured in The Netherlands and other industrialised countries? What explanations can be given? Only recently evidence based (inter)national criminological research has come available to explain the crime drop; There are many possible explanations available, from a strong economy, policing strategies, gun control laws, imprisonment to improved security; There is no magic bullit explanation for the Dutch and international drop in crime; Many explanations are country specific and do not apply to a number of other different countries; For the Netherlands four major related explanations can be given: (1) improved security; (2) restoring the capacity and authority of the criminal law; (3) demography and a declining heroin market (4) a strong active and stimulating role from central gouvernment; Since the crime drop has occured at different times in different countries in relation to different crime types we will look for explanations that we can apply in many countries.

The Security Hypothesis explained On the basis of our current knowledge and evidence the security hypothesis is the most important and solid explanation for the drop in crime; There is a general (international) increase in improvement of preventive behaviour, the quality of and financial investment in crime prevention by individuals, gouvernmental organisations, the business world and producers. The private security industry has been an outstanding growth market; The security hypothesis especially applies when to explaining the drop in property crime (especially vehicle theft, shoplifting and domestic burglary). It is less clear how it applies to violent crime, such as certain types of (sexual) violence and assault.

Policy based evidence

Evidence based policy

What works?: evidence from research outcomes An efective crime (prevention) policy is based upon reliable and validated knowledge It can only be drawn up using ’lessons from empirical knowledge’ from high-quality and edited research Presentation of a systematic inventory and key outcomes of 260 recently published meta-evaluations Three knowledge domains: (1) situational crime prevention (2) policing (3) offender oriented (criminal) justice interventions

Effective situational crime prevention: what works? It is easier to change places than people Opportunity makes the thief The raising of lighting levels in (semi) public spaces The use of CCTV in certain locations, aimed at specific crime categories The us of the Secured by Design instrument The raising of the general security level and the restructuring of residential areas The obligatory inbuilt of standard security measures during the production phase of consumer goods (cars, cameras, bicycles, mobile telephones) Limitation of the availability of alcohol / requirements to the set-up of catering industry / responsible serving The deployment of supervisors / informal-social control in housing complexes, public transport and public space

Proven effective in The Netherlands: Decline in the risk of household burglaries by taking simple crime prevention measures Crime prevention measures can be relative simply and very effective E.g. the combination of the following five preventive measures: (1) leave a light on when going out (2) fitted extra locks on doors and windows (3) extra outside lighting (4) dog (5) burglar alarm Effect: the risk of becoming a victim of a successful household burglary is decreased by factor 16

Effective policing: what works? Focused and selective strategy Problem oriented policing Focus on repeat victimization Hotspots policing Third party policing Focused deterrence strategies Hot offender / prolific offender strategy

Proven effective in The Netherlands: The prevention of repeat victimization Over all crimes decreased by 16% in the prevention condition compared with control condition The decrease were greatest, 20%, for programmes that were designed to prevent repeat burgalaries (residential and commercial) The overwhelming conclusion is that further efforts to preven repeat victimization would be fruitful for policy and would greatly benefit crime victims

Interpersonal skills training / self control mechanism Effective offender oriented (criminal) justice interventions: what works? Community sanctions Interpersonal skills training / self control mechanism Parental training / early prevention Cognitive-behavioral therapy Employment / job training Mentoring Drug / alcohol therapy within prison setting

Proven effective in The Netherlands: Reducing recidivism among offenders Most programmes have a small (but certainly not negligible effect) effect  on average there is a 12% improvement 25% of the programmes show a reduction of recidivism of 30% The effectiveness of interventions is determined to a considerable degree by the way in which they acquire form in (difficult) practical situations Only high-quality and intensive approaches produce results

How to put this knowledge into policy and practice? The incorrect or non-dissemination of knowledge is useless knowledge Within policy and practice there is a (large) obscurity with what is known The dissemination of available knowledge can be improved by: - Selecting the best channels to reach a target audience - Excellent style and design - Readable and understandabale products - Actively participate in bipartite discussions - Well-timed making available of knowledge - More interaction between research / policy and practice by organizing expert sessions

Special Features of the Dutch Approach to Crime Control and Crime Prevention Strong collaboration between central government and the business world: Dutch National Platform of Crime Control; Public and Private Partnerships to promote crime prevention, especially with the Private Security Industry Preventing is more desirable then prosecuting  stimulating preventive behaviour Using civil remedies and an administrative approach preventing criminal behavior (local organized crime) Strong certification schemes for public safety aspects Evidence based approach (evidence based crime policies versus policy based evidence)

Conclusions There is reason for optimism about what works as regards tackling crime and reducing reoffending A key characteristic of effective crime policy is that it is specific and concentrated: problem analysis and the use of available knowledge are the most important features A crime policy that is too general and based on a ’probable idea’ is not effective The outcomes of available international meta-evaluations can, after transformation to a specific country, be successfully implemented However, large-scale national application of the implementation of existing knowledge and effective measures seems to be difficult to get off the ground Implementing measures which limit the opportunity structure to commit crimes appears to be more effective than using an exclusive offender-oriented approach