Introduction into Assessment Tools Dr. Prajal Pradhan Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) www.pik-potsdam.de/nsp Hyderabad Berlin Potsdam Cochin Mumbai

Dealing with guardrails….. The Global Calculator takes a role in between: compares actual energy scenarios based on scientific experts, literature, workshops knowledge levers were predefined lever I: business-as-usual, lever IV: most ambitious target under actual technology scenarios Multi-dimensional analyses possible NB! If you drive excatly 100km/hr this does not mean that you would never have any accident! Option space for action Scenarios analysis is one of the most important strategy in order to assess future development and its consequences. You know this strategy when you are considering climate change sceanarios, which are based on hypothetical futures Of human development in the next 100yrs. Besides of this we can do assessment approaches more simple and more complex depending on the goal we want To achieve.

Going down in scale: Synergies Approach Semiquantitative - Narratives and Numbers From. „Great Transition“, Raskin et al. 2002, Global Scenario Group, SEI several possible futures characterized by trend-combinations of generalized variables and changes of trend-combinations

A bottom-up ‘Effort-based approach’ Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 No effort (business as usual) Effort described by most stakeholders as achievable Effort needing significant change – hard but deliverable The maximum possible due to physical/ practical constraints only (similar to ‘technical potential’) Speaking notes: Note that some variables (or sectors) have A-D instead We used these broad guidelines for developing the trajectories in each sector. Clearly, there is an element of judgement, particularly when comparing very different sectors. The aim is to achieve broadly comparable levels of effort in each trajectory across the different sectors

There are benefits to defining level 4 as an extreme effort Global Calculator Benefits of defining level 4 as extreme effort: Identify the whole solution space. Many users find playing with level 4s to be a useful way of contextualising the issues. Even if they don’t seriously advocate that level of action, they find it helpful to have an awareness of what the extreme looks like. Common platform for debate. Level 1 to 4 is inclusive of all credible experts views, so they can all use the tool as a common platform for debating their proposals. Helpful for securing buy in from experts. Future is uncertain! Much could change over the next 35 years, e.g. technology breakthroughs, cost reductions, behaviour change. Defining the range too narrowly risks underestimating future uncertainty.   

Preselect pathways, e.g. IEA 6DS (approximation) …

...and compare, e.g. with IEA 2DS (approximation)

Aggregated and detailed lever controls

e.g., Energy system

e.g., Climate

e.g., Compare pathway costs

Desirable Futures Lever 1 „BAU“ Lever 4 „Ambitious, but feasible“ An example: here we preselected a 6 degree warming scenario calculated by the International Energy Agency. The levers in such a case are set automatically and you see that such scenario will transgress the 2°C target clearly. If you click on leaver arrows submenus are oppening, if you click on the exclamation mark you can obtain background information about the leaver Definition.

IEA 6DS and lever controls Freight dist. increase: 146% → 53%; calories: 2520 → 2100 cal/cap d; meat: 281 → 14 cal/cap d; meat type: red meat: 28% → 10%, population: 10.9 → 8.3bn An example: here we preselected a 6 degree warming scenario calculated by the International Energy Agency. The levers in such a case are set automatically and you see that such scenario will transgress the 2°C target clearly. If you click on leaver arrows submenus are oppening, if you click on the exclamation mark you can obtain background information about the leaver Definition.

www.globalcalculator.org Example for national ones: My2050 (Belgium) 2016 For these purposes we developed the global calculator together with other partners. It is an online tool which Allows you to define your own strategies in terms of transport, building, food production, energy provision. It shows you immediately the effects in terms of global warming and emissions. Lets tackle the influence of food consumption

Explore different options to reach the below 2 °C target

Explore lever settings! Planning around with levers: Which factors mostly affect the 2°C target, and what kind of conclusion you may draw from these insight for your own action? http://www.globalcalculator.org

Contact us: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Telegraphenberg A 31 14473 Potsdam - Germany Prof. Dr. Jürgen P. Kropp Deputy Chair Research Domain II: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities Head: Climate Change & Development E-Mail: nsp@pik-potsdam.de Dr. Prajal Pradhan Flagship Sustainable Transitions E-Mail: pradhan@pik-potsdam.de http://www.pik-potsdam.de/nsp Funded by