Megatrends en transities: Europa’s langetermijn milieu en klimaatbeleid 18 December 2015 – Megatrends Conference, Brussels Presentation by Dr. Hans Bruyninckx, Executive Director, EEA

The European Environment Agency The EEA is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy. With a network of more than 300 institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development. EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public.

The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks. SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends 11 briefings Global megatrends 25 briefings European briefings 9 briefings Cross-country comparisons 39+3 briefings Countries and regions

The policy context 2050 2020/2030 2014-2018 Halt biodiversity loss SUSTAINABILITY 2050 Halt biodiversity loss 20-20-20 targets => 2030 Circular Economy SDG Vision in 7th EAP Reduce GHG 80-95 % Zero impacts (air) Acquis WFD targets Fisheries below MSY MDGs 2020/2030 2014-2018 TIME

Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

Sustainable development? Of course not! Sustainability revisited Social Environment Sustainable development? Of course not! Economy

Living well, within environmental limits

Key messages from SOER 2015 Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation I just want to show you where I’m going to end up with the main messages…. I’m going to go into each of these messages in a bit more detail in the coming slides. Bullet 1: this is the message that emerges from integration. Bullet 2: we face systemic challenges > what we mean by this is… Bullet 3: © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

Progress to policy targets Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital   Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity  Land use and soil functions No target  Ecological status of freshwater bodies  Water quality and nutrient loading    Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts Marine and coastal biodiversity Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target 20+ years outlook Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Progress to policy targets Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy   Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Material resource efficiency and material use No target Waste management  Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation  /  Energy consumption and fossil fuel use     Transport demand and related environmental impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Water use and water quantity stress  20+ years outlook   Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Progress to policy targets Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health   Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Water pollution and related environmental health risks  /  Air pollution and related environmental health risks  Noise pollution (especially in urban areas) Urban systems and grey infrastructure    No target  Climate change and related environmental health risks Chemicals and related environmental health risks  /  20+ years outlook   /     Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Past (5–10) year trends   20+ years outlook   / Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Understanding past trends and future outlooks Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects: 1. The changing global context Competition for resources Pressures from outside Europe Planetary boundaries 2. Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges Complexity Uncertainty Environmental, social and economic interdependencies © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

What are global megatrends? Setting the scene What are global megatrends? Global megatrends = large-scale high impact often interdependent social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes. Europe’s ecological and societal resilience will be increasingly affected by those global driving forces. This increasing interdependence presents many challenges but also many opportunities for Europe to shape its future. © NASA Earth Observatory

Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs The changing global context Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs Population Technology Economy ….global megatrends strongly impact Europe’s ability to meet its basic resource needs in the coming decades Environment Governance

43 % Diverging global population trends The changing global context Diverging global population trends Growing population, but at a slower rate Asia, Africa (!) on the rise Older Migration 43 % ... growth of the global population by 2050 (UN, 2013)

Towards a more urban world GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Towards a more urban world Urban areas in developing countries will absorb most of the global population increase, with 67% of people living in cities by 2050. Most of the growth is expected to be in megacities Compact cities are the most efficient and environmentally sustainable Urban growth is driving land-use change in Europe Integrated urban management could increase the environmental resilience of Europe’s cities, particularly in the east and south. © Adela Nistora, Environment & Me /EEA

By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities Towards a more urban world By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950–2050 Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision.

170 % The global middle class Growing urban middle class The changing global context Growing urban middle class Share of middle class consumers The global middle class Expected growth from 1.8 billion in 2010 to 4.9 billion by 2030, with Asia accounting for 85 % of that growth 170 % ...growth of the global middle class by 2030 Challenge: rapidly growing burden of resource use and pollution (Brookings Institution, 2012)

300 % Continued economic growth? The changing global context Continued economic growth? In the period 2010-2050, global GDP is expected to grow by… 300 % (OECD, 2014)

Intensified global competition for resources The changing global context Intensified global competition for resources World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900 European economy structurally dependent on imports of raw materials (Krausmann et al., 2009)

World resource use is expected to at least double in the next three decades © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database. 2013 Edition. Available at: www.materialflows.net

Intensified global competition for resources The changing global context Intensified global competition for resources Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010–2012 (EC, 2014)

Accelerating technological change GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Accelerating technological change The pace of technological change, particularly in the fields of information, communication, nano- and bio-technologies, is unprecedented. This provides opportunities to reduce humanity’s impact on the environment and reliance on non-renewable natural resources. The risks and uncertainties associated with technological innovation can be managed using regulatory frameworks and the precautionary principle. By recalibrating its institutions, policies and environmental knowledge base, Europe can support better risk management, while enhancing innovation and the diffusion of new technologies. © Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA

Growing pressures on ecosystems GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Growing pressures on ecosystems The demands of a growing global population with rapidly changing consumption patterns for food, mobility and energy are exerting ever- increasing pressure on the Earth's ecosystems and their life-supporting services. In combination with climate change, these changes raise concerns about current meat-heavy diets, water use and strategies for bioenergy production. Exacerbated by climate change and continued pollution, rates of global habitat destruction and biodiversity loss are predicted to increase, including in Europe. Continued degradation of global ecosystems and their services will influence poverty and inequality, potentially driving increased migration. © CIFOR

Growing pressures on ecosystems Global biodiversity loss will continue, with the strongest impacts on poor people in developing countries Terrestrial mean species abundance, 2010–2050 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050.

Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009 Growing pressures on ecosystems The ever rising pressure on the Earth’s ecosystems is fuelled by meat consumption and bioenergy demand Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009 Source: Rulli et al., 2013.

Increasingly severe consequences of climate change GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and will continue. Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human health and increase inequality. The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally. Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather extremes that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure and human well-being. © Manuela Aldeghi, Environment & Me /EEA Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water stress Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change & related envi. health risks Climate change impacts and adaptation

Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Global temperature increases of 4C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109 Source: IPPC, 2014. Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water stress Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change & related envi. health risks Climate change impacts and adaptation

Increasing environmental pollution GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Increasing environmental pollution Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in ecosystems, and losses in agricultural yield. In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase strongly, particularly in Asia. Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining, European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in other regions. For example, despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an equivalent improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the transboundary transport of air pollutants. © Jonathan Díaz Marbá, Environment & Me /EEA Air pollution & its ecosystem impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Air pollution & related envi. health risks Air pollution Air pollution

25 % Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics The Changing global context Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics 25 % ...of the global burden of disease and deaths can be attributed to environmental causes (mostly PM, ozone) (OECD, 2012) Urban air pollution: main environmental cause of premature mortality worldwide in 2050 Climate change is likely to exacerbate this

Diversifying approaches to governance GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Diversifying approaches to governance In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing society and their more national and short-term focus and powers. The need for more coordinated governance at the global scale has been reflected in the proliferation of international environmental agreements, particularly during the 1990s. More recently, businesses and civil society have also taken an increasing role in governance. This broadening of approaches is welcome but it raises concerns about coordination and effectiveness, as well as accountability and transparency. © Alan Kotok GHG emissions & CC mitigation Mitigating climate change Mitigating climate change

The changing global context What can we conclude? Boundaries between developments in Europe and other parts of the world are growing more blurred. Europe’s success in achieving its environmental, social and economic goals will depend on its ability to respond to the long-term and global contexts. Europeans have two main clusters of response options: Seek to shape global change in ways that mitigate and manage risks, and create opportunities (e.g. unilateral and multilateral efforts to mitigate environmental pressures, etc.). Find ways to adapt to global trends (e.g. seeking to anticipate and avoid harm by increasing the resilience of social, environmental and economic systems, etc).

Global systems of production and consumption need to be reconfigured Within environmental limits (Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014) ‘good life’

Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

Systemic environmental challenges require systemic solutions Not just incremental efficiency gains Source: Tesla but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.

Cars are more efficient but contribute to a range of negative impacts on people’s quality of life in cities (SLIDE 14) In transport, the stock of cars in the EU-27 has been continuously increasing since 1990. And at the same time, kilometres travelled increased at nearly the same pace. As a result, fuel consumption has increased in spite of the fact that cars are more efficient.

Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials (SLIDE 13) Similar trends are at work in housing and transport. Homes are more energy efficient, but this is partly offset by the growth in the floor area. So overall fuel consumption goes up. Source: SCP023 indicator (draft)

From challenge to response The EU policy and related activities offer a strong basis for action: 7EAP enabling objectives (implementation, innovation, investment, information) Circular economy package Raw Materials Initiative EU climate policy Sustainable Development Goals

Personal reflections on the outcome of COP21 2° (and 1,5°!) 2100 perspective Global Binding MRV Deep and fast changes Level playing field © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Rapid system change and megatrends Internet since 1994 Obesity in the US 2

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1986 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1987 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1989 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1992 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1993 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1995 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1996 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1998 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1999 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2001 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2002 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2004 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2005 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2006 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2007 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2008 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2009 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2010 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010 (*BMI 30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’4” person) 1990 2000 2010 No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

40 jaar kennisopbouw Evolutie in probleemdefinitie en kennisbenadering Zware industriële pollutie Single issues DPSIR denken Systeembenaderingen: probleemanalyse; denkkaders; oplossingen Evolutie in disciplinaire interesse Chemici, biologen, ingenieurs Economen, geneeskundigen, geografen, geologen Bestuurskundigen, ruimtelijke ordeners, juristen, filosofen Psychologen, historici, …

Toekomstgerichte kennisontwikkeling Langetermijndenken Systeembenadering Betekenis van limieten in denken, onderzoek en praktijk? Methodologisch? Scenario’s, future’s studies, for-casting/sight, back-casting, distance to target, gap analysis, cost/benefit analysis 2.0 Onzekerheden, non-lineariteit Niches, innovatie, R&D Sterke aandacht voor lock-ins, backlash, breakdown risks

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