Sistema de Alerta de Tsunamis del Caribe Christa G. von Hillebrandt-Andrade Directora e Investigadora Red Sísmica de Puerto Rico, UPR, Mayagüez Conferencia Las Fuerzas Armadas en apoyo a la atención de eventuales desastres: Tsunamis Sede de la Junta Interamericana de Defensa (Casa del Soldado) Washington, D. C. 26 de Agosto de 2008

Agenda –Elementos del Sistema de Alerta de Tsunamis Determinación de la Amenaza y Riesgo Vigilancia –Sísmica –Nivel de Mar Comunicaciones Educación, Preparación y Recuperación

Generation, Propagation, and Inundation Phases of Tsunamis long wavelength

Tsunami INDONESIA, December 26, 2004, Mw 9.3

Since 1530, 95 Tsunamis Have been observed in the Caribbean Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis, A 500-Year History from by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120 and NGDC, Fatalities Due to Tsunamis Date PlaceFatalities 1692Jamaica Haiti~ Venezuela Virgin Islands Panama Jamaica Puerto Rico Dominican Republic(1) Dominican Republic(2) 75 TOTAL 5503 to 8928

Tsunamis in the Caribbean From NOAA National Geophysical Data Center

Principal Earthquake, Landslide and Tsunami Sources Source: U. ten Brink, USGS Major faults and structures in the Caribbean with the potential of generating large local and regiaonal tsunamis from earthquakes and submarine landslides.

Other Caribbean Tsunamigenic Sources, Also Mostly short-fused Subaerial and Submarine Landslides Subaerial Volcanoes- Soufriere Hills, Montserrat Submarine Volcanoes-Kick em Jenny Tele-tsunami (e.g. Lisbon Nov. 1, 1755)

The risk from tsunamis has increased dramatically due to population growth, coastal infrastructure development and tourism US Virgin Islands, 1867 US Virgin Islands, today During high season, there can be as many as 25,000 people arriving on cruise ships during a day. During low season, as much as 15,000 people/day.

Tsunami Inland Flood Limit for Mayagüez,PR Tsunami Inundation Maps Information Required: –Tsunami sources, eg. Faults –Digital elevation models of near shore topo and bathymetry –Inundation model- TIME, MOST

Vulnerability Factors –Age –Sex –Race –Family/Marital Status –Special Needs –Education –Housing –Economic resources Vulnerability

Monitoring Components of Tsunami Warning System Seismic monitoring-accurate and timely detection and determination and dissemination of hypocentral parameters. Initial performance criteria: messages for all earthquakes M 5 or greater within 5 minutes of origin time. Sea Level Monitoring –Tide Gauges-confirmation of tsunami heights and arrival times at coastal locations, validate tsunami inundation models –DART Buoys-confirmation of tsunamis and real time forecasting of tsunamis Other geophysical instrumentation, GPS, hydroacoustic sensor – developing technology and infrastructure.

Seismic Stations Available in Real Time for the CEWS Conributing Networks USGS Caribbean Seismic Network ANSS-USGS Global Seismographic Network U. Colima, Mexico RS El Salvador INETER, Nicaragua OVSICORI, Costa Rica Baru Network, Panama Seismic Research Unit, Trinidad and Tobago Montserrat Volcano Observatory Martinique Volcano Observatory KNMI, Dutch Antilles Puerto Rico Seismic Network, UPR Seismological Institute, DR

TsunamiReady Tide Gauges Efforts are underway to increase the number of sea level stations available in real time. PRSN hosted a workshop in June, unesco.org

DART Buoys

Tsunamis Warning Centers National –Nicaragua Regional –US NOAA West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center –Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands International –US NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Planned –Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center Earthquake Information WCATWC PRSN

Communications and Dissemination 24 hour capability to rapidly receive and disseminate emergency information messages 80% of tsunami mortalities occur within the first hour after the source event (exception: 1946 Aleutian tsunami) EOS-AGU, v.88, n. 52

Tsunami Education, Awareness and Drills

Preparation and Distribution of Evacuation Maps.

Installation and Maintenance (replacement) of Tsunami Warning Signs

Response and Recovery Planning Response Plans –Roles and responsibilities –Communications –Drills Recovery Plans –Safety and security –Mass casualties –Civil Infrastructure

Intergovernmental Coordinating Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG-C) UNESCO/IOC body 30 member states, commonwealths, territories Established in 2005 Sessions held in 2006, 2007 and 2008

Puerto Rico TsunamiReady Partners

Conclusions and Recommendations Further analysis of the hazard and risk is required –Near shore bathymetry and topo digital elevation models Very important that the infrastructure and capabilities of the almost 30 local and subregional seismic networks continue to be strengthened and supported. Upgrade the sea level infrastructure in the region.

Cont. Improve the capabilities for receiving and disseminating information and warning messages The establishment of a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center and Caribbean Tsunami Information Center in the region for most effective advisory service before, during and after an event and accessible capacity building platforms for the region. Improve education, preparedness and recovery plans

More information… UNESCO/IOC/ICG Website NOAA Tsunami Website – PRTWMP website with tsunami inundation maps – PRSN – Thanks for your support and attention

NY Times Our Mission: Avoid this… Gracias, Thank You