Tuesday, 03 October 2017 The UK’s Climate Change Act: Driving the transition to a low-carbon economy Owen Bellamy

Driving change & the Climate Change Act 2050 Emissions Target A goal 1 Carbon Budgets A pathway 2 Requirement that Government brings forward policies A toolkit 3 Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes A monitoring framework 4

1. The 2050 target: A change in the terms of the debate in the UK Before the Climate Change Act a question was: should the UK reduce emissions? Evidence: World warming from man-made emissions Cheaper to reduce emissions than face damages Needs 50% global reduction in emissions for 2°C: 2 tCO2e per capita in 2050 Achievable globally and in UK based on known technologies Now the UK has a statutory target of at least an 80% reduction in UK emissions by 2050 relative to 1990. The question is how should the UK reduce emissions?

The scale of the 2050 challenge 67% below 2016 80% below 1990 Power Industry Buildings Transport Agriculture & LULUCF Waste F-gases IAS* *International aviation and shipping

We expect different sectors to progress at different rates Scenarios identify low-cost ways to cut emissions and key options that need development

Some key takeaways from 2050 scenarios in light of uncertainties Decarbonised electricity Strategic priority Don’t build new coal Avoiding lock-in CCS, bioenergy, electric vehicles Developing options Industry, agriculture, aviation, CO2 removal Research questions Develop options, not wait-and-see Approach to uncertainty

Driving change & the Climate Change Act 2050 Emissions Target A goal 1 Carbon Budgets A pathway 2 Requirement that Government brings forward policies A toolkit 3 Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes A monitoring framework 4

2. Carbon budgets are stepping stones to 2050 target Carbon budgets and the cost-effective path to the 2050 target

Flexibility in carbon budgets Technology neutral 5-years, not 1 Carbon credits Can be changed if (and only if) circumstances change

The Act requires the Committee to balance a range of factors, and for Gvmt to legislate the budget

The Committee draws on a wide range of evidence in developing its advice

Strong evidence-based underpinning… Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy Power Buildings Industry Transport Agriculture Waste & F-gases Climate science International & EU 2050 Target Carbon Budgets Security of supply Fuel poverty Competi -tiveness Fiscal impacts Economic Air quality & health Budget impacts

…that is transparent to all stakeholders…

…and has led to widespread business support

Driving change & the Climate Change Act 2050 Emissions Target A goal 1 Carbon Budgets A pathway 2 Requirement that Government brings forward policies A toolkit 3 Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes A monitoring framework 4

3. Policies have been introduced across the economy to meet carbon budgets “if you believe in markets you have to believe in market failures” Reduce emissions Break down barriers Avoid lock-in & prepare for the future EU ETS cap and UK carbon price floor EU car CO2 standards No coal post-2025 & renewables support New market for low-carbon generation Products standards Funding for Electric Vehicles Landfill Tax Renewable Heat Incentive

Driving change & the Climate Change Act 2050 Emissions Target A goal 1 Carbon Budgets A pathway 2 Requirement that Government brings forward policies A toolkit 3 Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes A monitoring framework 4

4. CCC appointed to recommend targets and monitor progress Lord Deben Baroness Brown Professor Sir Brian Hoskins Professor Jim Skea Professor Nick Chater Professor Corinne Le Quéré Paul Johnson Dr Rebecca Heaton Plus ~25 full-time secretariat

The role of the CCC Statutory advice on 2050 target & carbon budgets Recommend targets Towards targets & in key indicators to meet them Track progress Advice on National Adaptation Programme Adaptation Technical experts, not interest groups Own research budget Independent & evidence-based Reports & analysis made public Engage NGOs, business, academics, experts Transparent and open

The UK has succeeded in cutting emissions while growing the economy

UK GHG emissions by sector (1990-2016) Recent progress dominated by power sector but 5CB requires reductions across all sectors UK GHG emissions by sector (1990-2016) 2012-2016 average Power -16% Waste -9% Rest -1%

Policy gap to fifth carbon budget Our assessment is that the policy gap is 100 MtCO2e – around half the reduction required in 2030 Policy gap to fifth carbon budget Range for Government projections New policies needed to meet carbon budgets

What is in the policy gap? 2016 to 2030 37% reduction in total UK emissions Power -61% Transport -44% Buildings -23% Industry -20% Other -37% 2020 renewables Coal closure Offshore wind Hinkley Biofuels gCO2/km to 2020 EV support Boiler Regs Building Regs Products Policy ECO RHI EU ETS, CCL Afforestation Waste policy F-gas regulation +100 TWh low-C Flexibility CCS strategy g/km after 2020 HGVs Demand-side Aviation New homes Energy Efficiency 2020s low-C heat H2 strategy Roadmaps->Action Agriculture F Low-risk policies At-risk policies Policy gap

The policy gap must be closed whatever the outcome of Brexit negotiations

Policy impact as an academic? Ask the right question Where are the (policy) knowledge gaps? Get the right level of detail 80/20 rule Get the comms right Focus on key points Make it available & accessible!

www.theccc.org.uk | @theCCCuk Thank you! www.theccc.org.uk | @theCCCuk

Some closing observations Government policies needed to drive change from businesses and consumers Legislative framework should aim to reduce policy risk Need to balance certainty with flexibility Transparent approach based on analysis and evidence key to CCC success Effective policy tackles multiple market failures; needs regular review and updating