Energy Task Force Presentation Nishnawbe Aski Nation Energy Task Force Presentation
AGENDA Load forecast update Thermal Generation Shifting requirements Load forecasts Variables IESO-ETF Low Medium & High water Thermal Generation Atikokan Thunder Bay Conversion to biomass Recommendation
25 New Mines
CVNW Load Forecast Update
Shifting Requirements 2004 2012
IESO Load Forecast
ETF-IESO Load Forecast
ETF-IESO Load Forecast 320 MW
VARIABLES
Water Power Uncertainty DROUGHT EVERY 4 YEARS ON AVERAGE
Water Power Uncertainty El NINO EVERY 4 YEARS ON AVERAGE
Weather IMpacts
Weather Impacts Nav Canada identifies both Winter and Summer storms move from west to east through Northwestern Ontario International regulations require one of the two east-west tie line circuits to come off line as an electrical storm approaches and passes through – STORM LIMITED. Eliminates 175 MW of capacity.
Storm Limited
Storm Limited
East West Tie Broke in 2011 X
2020 to 2025 ETF tracking of data up to 2020 Data for 2020 to 2025 to be determined in Winter of 2016 2020+ projection averaged over 5 years (at 20% per year) to obtain specific projections for that period
MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED IESO-ETF COMPARISON MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED
MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED IESO-ETF COMPARISON MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED
MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED IESO-ETF COMPARISON MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED
Next Steps Technical Meeting January-February IESO Staff Technical component of ETF Detailed review of projections Mine by mine Year by year To identify areas of disagreement and determine how best to resolve them
QUESTIONS
Thermal Generation 2015 Output Requirement for Thermal Atikokan Thunder Bay Thermal Urgency Thermal Conclusion Biomass Option Review Recommendation
Atikokan Generating Station
Atikokan GS Output
Atikokan GS Production %
Atikokan GS (L/M/H) YEAR ETF IESO –Reference IESO - High 2016 200/102/0 200/74/0 200/200/0 2017 200/197/0 200/121/0 2018 200/200/200 200/179/0 2019 200/200/118 2020 0/0/0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Thermal Requirements Atikokan GS needs to operate at capacity by: Continuing to run biomass at 90,000 tonnes per year Expanding the biomass contract volume to meet projected demand (mix of storage top up and just in time delivery) Adding advanced biomass to the fuel mix Ultimate goal is 200 MW continuous output Total input of 500,000 tonnes per year
Thermal Urgency Atikokan GS must Expand biomass in 2016 Lead time for producers to secure local wood supply Lead time for producers to ramp up production and just in time delivery Alternative is to import from outside region Add advanced biomass by 2018 Following constraining of biomass system Lower cost than expanding storage Lead time for producers to secure wood supply Lead time for producers to construct processing facilities
Thunder bay Generating Station
Thunder Bay GS Output
Thunder Bay GS Production %
Thunder Bay GS (L/M/H) YEAR ETF IESO –Reference IESO - High 2016 165/0/0 133/0/0 134/0/0 2017 260/0/0 137/0/0 138/6/0 2018 300/300/200 184/0/0 187/37/81 2019 242/0/0 269/180/237 2020 300/132/200 0/0/0 2021 300/240/200 2022 2023 2024 2025
Thermal Conclusion Thunder Bay GS needs to be converted to OR Natural Gas 2 units OR Advanced biomass Second Unit
Conversion to biomass
+ Manitoba
Fueling Options for TBGS Component Natural Gas Advanced Biomass Capital Cost $120 Million inc gas $10 Million Conversion Time 24-36 months 12 months/24 to build suppliers Fuel Supply From main line ($60 million) Local/regional supply Fuel Storage Expensive and in S. ONT On site - in open Energy Impact Greenhouse gas producer 80-90% less GHG than gas Fuel Cost Variable with long term contracts competitive Carbon Tax Will apply Will be Exempt Economic Benefits Construction + ongoing operation New manufacturing facilities + harvesting + transportation + ongoing operation Staff levels 50-60 Load Range Full /variable load
Integrated Regional Resource Plan (IRRP) 5 Planning Areas 1 completed 1 almost completed 3 just commencing
NWO Planning
Remote Communities IRRP Near Completion
North of Dryden IRRP DONE
Transmission Projects from Dryden
Greenstone-Marathon IRRP + Thermal Upgrade to existing radial line + voltage sourced compensation to existing radial line
Pickle Lake Upgrade IESO recommends 230 KV line from East of Dryden Urgent need for development IESO monitoring work of two First Nation led consortiums
W-Power Central Corridor Energy Group Goldcorp AECOM, in association with PowerTel and Deutsche Bank Leave to Construct – August 2015
Sagatay Transmission L.P. Partners Mishkeegogamang First Nation, the Ojibway Nation of Saugeen Morgan Geare. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
West of Thunder Bay IRRP
Thunder Bay IRRP
Greenstone-Marathon IRRP Accelerated Planning Process
Greenstone-Marathon IRRP 112 MW+ post 2020 (inc RoF)
Structure One Local Advisory Committee (LAC) for each IRRP area Recruitment for Greenstone – Marathon underway Recruitment for Thunder Bay and West of Thunder Bay to commence soon
Transmission Issues
East-West Tie Enhancement Delayed until 2020
Bulk Transmission Expansion
Planning Sequencing
25 New Mines
Planning Sequencing
QUESTIONS