Shoji KUSUNOKI Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)

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Presentation transcript:

Future precipitation change over Panama projected by 20-km mesh atmospheric global model Shoji KUSUNOKI Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Climate Research Department JAPAN E-mail: skusunok@mri-jma.go.jp Climate change studies using dynamical downscaling applications: Panama case, 18-29 September 2017, Panama City, Panama Acknowledgment :This work was conducted under the framework of "Integrated Research Program for Advanced Climate Modeling" supported by the TOUGOU Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan. C:\Users\skusunok\Documents\学会とWS\20170918_Panama\Kusunoki_20170918_rainV2.ppt

Experimental design

Present-day: 1983-2003, 21 years Name Grid size Cumulus convection Sea surface temperature (SST) Ensemble size SPYS 20km Yoshimura (YS) Historical observation 2 HPYS 60km ２ HPAS Arakawa-Schubert (AS) HPKF Kein-Fritsch (KF)

Sea Surface Temperature: CMIP5 Future: 2079-2099, 21 years, RCP8.5 Grid size Cumulus convection Sea Surface Temperature: CMIP5 Cluster0 MME Cluster1 Cluster2 Cluster3 20km YS SFYSC0 SFYSC1 SFYSC2 SFYSC3 60km HFYSC0 HFYSC1 HFYSC2 HFYSC3 AS HFASC0 HFASC1 HFASC2 HFASC3 KF HFKFC0 HFKFC1 HFKFC2 HFKFC3 RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway

Sea surface temperature (SST) Future change by 28 CMIP5 AOGCM models CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 AOGCM: Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model

Present-day climate

Annual precipitation Present-day 1979-2003 OBS 20km 60km 180km 1.0deg 2.5deg 2.5deg 0.25deg OBS 20km 60km 180km YS scheme AS scheme KF scheme

Annual precipitation OBS Present-day 1979-2003 CMIP5 models 2.5deg 1.0deg 2.5deg 0.25deg Present-day 1979-2003 CMIP5 models 60km to 300km

□ Skill Annual precipitation RMSE Bias 〇 Contour: Taylor skill sore S S:20km H:60km L:180km Red:YS Orange:AS Blue:KF RMSE Bias MRI-AGCM 〇 MME: Multi-Model Ensemble OBS □ AVM: Average of individual model skill Contour: Taylor skill sore S CMIP5 Model OBS

Future change 2079-2099 21 years RCP8.5

July precipitation 20 km model Present-day 1979-2003 Observation Future 2075-2099 RCP8.5 Change = (F – P)/P %

- + Change July Average Sea Surface Temperature (F-P)/P Cluster 0　　1 2 3 　　 20km YS 60km YS 60km AS 60km KF Average　of 60km models - +

Cumulus or SST? July Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA) Precipitation change is sensitive to cumulus convection scheme.　　

Change Average of 20, 60km models

Water vapor transport change Arrow : Vertically integrated water vapor flux Color : Convergence

July change Precipitation change is mainly caused by convergence of water vapor flux. Arrow : Vertically integrated water vapor flux Color : Convergence

Regional average precipitation

Target area (80.5-79.0W, 8.5-9.5N)

Present-day climate Observation Pentad (5-day average) precipitation

Present-day and future Black: Present-day Color: Future 60km 20km Present-day

Change Black : 20km YS Red : 60km YS Blue : 60km AS Green : 60km KF ●　95% significant

All average Observation Present-day Present-day Future Change ●　95% significant

Extreme events

Extreme precipitation events Maximum 5 day precipitation Annual precipitation Maximum consecutive dry days Maximum 1 day precipitation precipitation

Summary 1. Reproducibility of precipitation over Panama by MRI-AGCM is better than CMIP5 models. 2. Precipitation increase in central and eastern part of Panama in rainy season. 3. Precipitation change is caused by convergence of water vapor transport from Caribbean Sea. Increase of intense precipitation is larger than moderate and weak precipitation. 5. Possibility of drought will increase. 6. Water resource management should be changed in the future.