Impact of Brexit on commissioning and procurement of social care Gareth Davies 25 November 2016

Impact of Brexit?

The phoney war Since the referendum on 23 June: New government 10% fall in value of £ (1.30 down to 1.17 euros) 8% rise in FTSE 100 (6338 to 6833) Interest rates at record low of 0.25% OBR forecast £59bn hit to borrowing from Brexit by 2021 Reported increases in hate crime

Nature of the change The attribution problem - plenty of other effects were already in play and remain highly relevant e.g. austerity, banking system weakness, tech-driven disruption, ageing population, climate change Direct changes trade migration UK contribution to EU budget EU funding EU directives and regulations Indirect impacts economic constitutional social and cultural

Impact on public services Funding Demand Staff Cost In a changed legal and constitutional framework

Impact on health and social care Key risks staff shortages rising costs (wage rates, pension deficits) impact on funding of any slowdown in the national or local economy (plus lost EU funding in some areas) impact on demand of returning pensioners Key opportunities reshape procurement rules to support outcome-focused commissioning expand training for care and nursing staff Brexit NHS dividend!

Focus on procurement Don’t overestimate the likely pace or extent of change in the procurement framework EU procurement directives have been incorporated into UK law (Public Contract Regulations 2015), so the default option is that, even after leaving the EU, our procurement law remains unchanged Other areas of legal reform post-Brexit may be higher priority for legislators Even if the current regulations are repealed, the objectives of probity, fairness and value for money remain relevant If commissioners see advantage in reform of procurement law, the case needs to be made

Questions for discussion Are there other risks or opportunities arising from Brexit that could affect outcomes for the people you serve? Do you have the right information on how the social care market in your area is being and will be affected? What are the strengths and weaknesses of current procurement practice? Which of these relate to the legal framework and which to how it is used? Is there an appetite to make the case for procurement law reform?