The Gender Dynamics of Employment Generation and Growth in a Globalizing World Stephanie Seguino, University of Vermont Elissa Braunstein, Colorado State University

3 key global gender trends Educational gender gaps substantially narrowed Far less improvement in gender employment gap – but progress Gender job segregation has worsened. It is this puzzle we seek to explain in our paper.

But closure of employment gaps lagging: F/M Employment-to-Population Rates, 15+

Gender conflictive employment gains: F/M employment ratio rising as male employment rates fall

And job segregation is increasing: Women’s relative concentration in industrial sector employment, developing countries, 1991 and 2010

Regional trends in F/M employment and job segregation

Two questions 1. What are macro-structural causes of greater job segregation? 2. Does increased gender job segregation hurt men as well as women by depressing the labor share of income?

Macro-structural trends at work Structural change (premature deindustrialization, rising K/L, growing shortage of good jobs) Inequality has dampened demand/limited job growth Rising F/M LFPR Result: intensified job competition shaped by gender stratification

Under conditions of job scarcity and thus rationing… Access to good jobs influenced by processes of stratification—in particular hoarding and exclusion. Results in dual labor market process of women’s exclusion from good jobs and “crowding” into lower quality jobs.

Trends in industrial employment as a share of total employment, 1991-2014

Econometric Analysis: Determinants of women’s relative share of industrial sector jobs 4 sets of factors Structural transformation and technological change Structural and policy consequences of hyperglobalization Overall growth Labor Supply changes (panel data, 1990 to 2013)

Assessing gender-based exclusion in the context of structural change, globalization and growth in developing countries, 1991-2014 Factor Impact on women’s relative access to good jobs Structural transformation and the gender inclusivity of technological change Industrial employment as a share of total employment Positive: Industrial value added matters a lot less Higher capital intensity of production Negative: Given gender stereotypes and segregation, technological change may hurt women’s access to better jobs Structural and policy consequences of globalization Stronger fiscal policy stances Positive: Austerity detracts from gender equality Net (not total) exports of manufactures Positive: Domestic value added in exports matter, FDI doesn’t Tariffs Positive: Less trade liberalization enhances women’s access Economic growth Per capita GDP growth No effect: Failure of growth to produce sufficient employment also a failure for gender equality Women’s relative access to good jobs = the share of industrial jobs in (women’s employment/men’s employment) Women’s involvement in markets Increasing women’s labor force participation Negative: Given the limited supply of good jobs, associated with increased gender segregation and crowding into bad jobs

Are men also hurt by gender job segregation? Our main arguments are: Gender job segregation may influence labor’s BP Core sector jobs, dominated by men, are increasingly rationed Poor working conditions of women’s jobs in peripheral sector communicate to men the “cost” of job loss if they lose privileged positions in the core sector This weakens their fallback positions & BP in the industrial sector, depressing wages & making it difficult to capture benefits of productivity growth. Thus greater job segregation decline in labor share of income.

Econometrics: Labor share of income a function of: Women’s share of industrial sector jobs (-) F/M LFPR Industrial employment as % of GDP Industrial share value added K/L ratio Inward FDI/GDP Weighted tariffs G consumption/ GDP Real interest rates Method: Fixed effects and 2SLS regressions

Results: Statistically significant variables only Fixed Effects 2SLS F share ind. emp 0.08 0.14 Ind. value-added/GDP -0.18 -0.26 Weighted tariffs 0.04 G cons/GDP 0.16 0.17 *Women’s share of industrial sector jobs may be endogenous, hence 2SLS. Instruments are lagged values of women’s industrial concentration and net mfg. exports/GDP.

Conclusions Due to declining no. of good jobs, women's increased employment has led to their integration on inferior terms. This worsens overall inequality by lowering the labor share of income with negative effects for aggregate demand and growth. What progress we have seen in increased relative female employment is thus gender conflictive.

Implications of results Crowding hurts men’s access to employment – effect is large decline in F/M ind. employment led contributed to 4% of decline of labor share from 1991 to 2010 Falling labor share cannot be attributed to increased F/M LFPR that squeezes men out of jobs Expansive fiscal policies and less trade liberalization raise labor shares.