Angele Genereux Amanda Pappin Amir Hakami Main Driver:

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Presentation transcript:

Estimating the Tipping Point (TP) of Urban NOX Control in Two Major US Cities Angele Genereux Amanda Pappin Amir Hakami Main Driver: Although nation-wide Nitrogen Oxides (NO+NO2) & Ozone (O3) levels have decreased over the last decade, there have been increased O3 concentrations in urban/suburban areas (Simon et al, 2015)

Methodology I Study overview: 2 Methodology I Study overview: Anthropogenic emission abatement of NOX in intervals of 10% (0% 80%) Monetary valuation of the impact of emission control (“Benefit-per-ton” approach) (Pappin and Hakami 2013; Fann, Fulcher and Hubbell 2009) We aim to estimate 2 parameters for LA & NY: Point A: Tipping Point (TP) -- Region shifts from NOX-inhibited NOX-limited Point B: Break-Even Point (BEP) -- Cumulative benefits compensate accrued disbenefits 2 Cases (4 sets of results per location): Local Emission Abatement (NY & LA only) National Benefits ($) Local Benefits ($) National Emission Abatement (All locations)

Methodology II CMAQ: CMAQ 4.5.1 CONUS 36 x 36 km resolution 1 vertical layer July 1-31st, 2007 (scaled to the full ozone season) Mask.nc added - generated using US population census data (U.S. Census Bureau 2016) Marginal Damage: Respiratory mortality based on chronic exposure to 1-hour O3 (β=0.00392) Single pollutant model Pw = Population aged 30-90 M = Mortality risk VSL=Value of Statistical Life W = location C = Max 1-h [O3] (Jerrett et al. 2009; Pappin et al. 2016) LA NY Cost Function & Forcing Equations: (Pappin et al. 2016 )

Methodology III 4 Case 1: Fwd Fwd Adj-Nat Adj-Nat Case 2: Adj-Loc Summary of runs for each case: . . . Create a mask file to identify grid cells corresponding to NY & LA Fwd Adj-Nat Adj-Loc Fwd Adj-Nat Adj-Loc 0% 80% Modify forward CMAQ to enable masking Marginal Damage ($/ton) Modify abatement percentage (%) Run forward CMAQ Repeat for each abatement interval Adjoint – National CF Adjoint – Local CF Post-processing Marginal Damage ($/ton)

Results – Case I LA NY National Benefits Local Benefits 5 Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Local Benefits Local Benefits Local Benefits Local Benefits Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton)

Results – Case II LA NY National Benefits Local Benefits 6 Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Local Benefits Local Benefits Local Benefits Local Benefits Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton) Marginal Damage ($/ton)

Results – Case I = 7 Break-Even Point: Cumulative Disbenefits Cumulative Benefits = 50 86 8 16 54 93 64 100

8 Results – Case II 52 85 7 14 57 94 62 100

9 Results – Cases I & II 50 52 85 86 7 8 14 16 54 57 93 94 62 64 100 100

Summary & Conclusions Take-Home Messages: 10 Summary & Conclusions Take-Home Messages: Our results validate the results of previous studies, showing that each additional ton of NOX removed results in a larger benefit than the previous ton. We identify the TP of NOX control (where negative BPTs disappear and become positive) and show that this happens around: National Benefits: 50% (LA) & 7% (NY) Local Benefits: 55% (LA) & 63% (NY) Compounding benefits of both regional and national NOX control compensate immediate dis-benefits in NY & LA along the abatement pathway. We estimate the BEP (where benefits compensate dis-benefits) for LA and NY: National Benefits: 85% (LA) & 15% (NY) Local Benefits: 93% (LA) & 100% (NY) Nation-wide emission abatement results in larger benefits; however, local emission abatement still results in up to 70% of these benefits in NY and 85% in LA.

References & Acknowledgements 11 References & Acknowledgements Simon, Heather, Adam Reff, Benjamin Wells, Jia Xing, and Neil Frank. "Ozone Trends Across the United States over a Period of Decreasing NOx and VOC Emissions." Environmental Science & Technology (American Chemical Society) 49, no. 1 (2015): 186-195. Pappin, Amanda Joy, and Amir Hakami. "Source Attribution of Health Benefits from Air Pollution Abatement in Canada and the United States: An Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis." Environmental Health Perspectives (Environmental Health Perspectives) 121, no. 5 (2013): 572-579. Fann, Neal, Charles M. Fulcher, and Bryan J. Hubbell. "The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution." Air Quality, Atmosphere, & Health (Springer) 2, no. 3 (2009): 169-176. U.S. Census Bureau. "TIGER/Line Shapefile, 2016, 2010 nation, U.S., 2010 Census Urban Area National." DATA.GOV. October 17, 2016. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/tiger-line-shapefile-2016-2010-nation-u-s-2010-census-urban-area-national (accessed November 1, 2016). Jerrett, M., Burnett, R., Pope, C., Ito, K., Thurston, G., Krewski, D., et al. (2009). Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality. The New England Journal of Medicine , 360, 1085-1095. Pappin, A., Hakami, A., Blagden, P., Nasari, M., Szyszkowicz, M., & Burnett, R. (2016). Estimating the benefits of reducing NOx emissions in the presence of epidemiological and atmospheric nonlinearities. Environmental Research Letters , 11 (6), 1-10. Special thanks to: Dr. Amir Hakami – For his guidance throughout the project and through my Master’s degree. Dr. Amanda Pappin – For her guidance and making this project possible. Thanks for attending!