Housing Price Bubble Housing price trends in US are usually measured by an indicator known as the Case-Shiller index Index constructed from repeated sales.

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Presentation transcript:

Housing Price Bubble Housing price trends in US are usually measured by an indicator known as the Case-Shiller index Index constructed from repeated sales of single family homes Data from a sample of 20 metropolitan areas goes back to year 2000 Data from a subsample of 10 metropolitan areas goes back to 1987

From 1987 to 2000 housing prices in the urban areas rose 2% per year From 2000 to 2006 prices were increasing at a rate of 13% a year Average housing prices doubled over the sample of urban areas from 2000 to 2006

From 2006 through 2009, housing prices fell roughly 11.5% per year Prices began to rise in 2012

Metropolitan Areas with largest housing decline over 2007-2008 Metro Area    October 2008 Price Index    Year-over-Year change    Phoenix 135.18 -32.70% Las Vegas 142.57 -31.70% San Francisco 139.44 -31.00% Miami 173.42 -29.00% Los Angeles 179.82 -27.90% San Diego 159.12 -26.70% Detroit 86.1 -20.40%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2008-2009 Metro Area October 2009 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 110.71 -18.10% Las Vegas 104.70 -26.65% San Francisco 135.81 -2.60% Miami 149.09 -14.03% Los Angeles 168.43 -6.33% San Diego 155.37 -2.36% Detroit 73.07 -15.13%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2009-2010 Metro Area October 2010 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 105.97 -4.28% Las Vegas 100.97 -3.57% San Francisco 138.84 2.23% Miami 144.03 -3.39% Los Angeles 174.05 3.34% San Diego 159.99 2.97% Detroit 68.86 -5.52%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2010-2011 Metro Area October 2011 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 100.54 -5.12% Las Vegas 92.36 -8.53% San Francisco 132.34 -4.68% Miami 138.20 -4.22% Los Angeles 165.51 -5.16% San Diego 152.86 -4.66% Detroit 72.82 5.44%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2011-2012 Metro Area October 2012 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 122.39 21.73% Las Vegas 100.14 8.42% San Francisco 144.15 8.92% Miami 149.97 8.52% Los Angeles 175.85 6.25% San Diego 162.10 6.04% Detroit 80.82 11.02%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2012-2013 Metro Area October 2013 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 144.49 18.06% Las Vegas 127.23 27.05% San Francisco 179.55 24.56% Miami 173.63 15.77% Los Angeles 214.65 22.06% San Diego 194.07 19.72% Detroit 94.77 17.26%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2013-2014 Metro Area October 2014 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 147.56 2.12% Las Vegas 137.13 7.78% San Francisco 196.33 9.35% Miami 190.09 9.48% Los Angeles 225.11 4.87% San Diego 203.01 4.61% Detroit 98.24 3.66%

Year-over-Year Change Metropolitan Areas 2014-2015 Metro Area October 2015 Price Index Year-over-Year Change Phoenix 155.88 5.64% Las Vegas 144.87 San Francisco 217.73 10.90% Miami 205.07 7.88% Los Angeles 238.86 6.11% San Diego 215.62 6.21% Detroit 103.24 5.09%