LAS VEGAS HOUSING UPDATE – 2009 DENNIS SMITH – HOME BUILDERS RESEARCH, INC

  <=60% 60.01-70% 70.01-75% 75.1-80% 80.01-85% 85.1-90% 90.01-95% 95.01-97% 740+ 0.25 720-739 700-719 0.5 0.75 680-699 1 1.5 660-679 2 2.5 2.25 1.7 1.75 1.25 640-659 3 2.75 620-639 <620

Should sell out in 2009 20+ sell out in 2009 ??

LAS VEGAS from 1987 Case Shiller Home Price Index with CME futures for this index (CS HPI thru October 2008, CME futures prices as of 1/13/09)

PHOENIX -32.9 LAS VEGAS -31.6 SAN FRANCISCO -30.8 MIAMI -28.7 LOS ANGELES -26.9 SAN DIEGO -25.8 TAMPA -20.9 DETROIT -20.7 WASHINGTON -19.4 MINNEAPOLIS -16.3 CHICAGO -12.5 PORTLAND -11.5 ATLANTA -11.2 SEATTLE NEW YORK -8.6 BOSTON -7.4 CHARLOTTE -5.3 CLEVELAND -5.2 DENVER -4.3 DALLAS -3.3

2008 - % OF NEW SFR SALES TO NEW LISTINGS   NEW LISTINGS # SOLD % OF LISTINGS SOLD Jan-08 5023 983 20% Feb-08 4805 1098 23% Mar-08 4860 1478 30% Apr-08 5124 1794 35% May-08 5142 2026 39% Jun-08 5322 2226 42% Jul-08 5487 2592 47% Aug-08 5302 2545 48% Sep-08 5330 2783 52% Oct-08 5511 2718 49% Nov-08 4577 2183 Dec-08 4555 2498 55%

LAS VEGAS JOB GROWTH 2005 – YR TO YR = UP 7% 2006 – YR TO YR = 5.1%

POPULATION GROWTH 2007 – 1,954,319 2008 – 2,008,063 = +2.8% 2009 – 2,077,463 = +3.5% 2010 – 2,148,122 = +3.4% 2020 – 2,666,119 2028 – 3,014,975

FIX HOUSING FIRST NEED TO STOP FALLING HOME VALUES RESTORE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FIX THE CREDIT MESS – WILL BRING BACK INVESTMENT DOLLARS THAT CREATE JOBS KEEP PEOPLE IN THEIR HOMES – EMPTY HOUSES = BLIGHTED NEIGHBORHOODS LOWER INTEREST RATES TAX CREDIT THAT IS ONLY REPAYABLE IF HOME SOLD WITHIN FIRST 3 YEARS