Comeback Cities, Have The Big Cities Come Back? Edward W. (Ned) Hill Harold Wolman Kimberly Furdell Funding from The Brookings Institution, Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy and the Fannie Mae Foundation

Purpose What is the economic well-being of city residents? Economic well-being getting better or worse? How did Ohio’s central cities perform? Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Universe Central cities with 1980 populations of at least 125,000 in metropolitan areas with at least 250,000 people 98 cities Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Two Measures for Two Stories Levels of resident distress How well are we doing? Improvement from 1990 to 2000 How much are we improving? Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Index of City Resident Economic Distress Poverty rate Unemployment rate Median household income Missing is a measure of cost of living Calculated as n-scores Ni = (Xi – Median) / PSD ni ~ Normal (Median, PSD) PSD = (Interquartile range)/1.35 PSD Pseudo Standard Deviation Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Index: Change in Resident Economic Wellbeing: 1990 to 2000 Percent change from 1990 to 2000 Per capita income Median household income Percentage point change from 1990 to 2000 Poverty rate Unemployment rate Labor force participation rate Hill, Wolman & Furdell

How Big is Big? Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Levels of Distress

The Relationship Has Been Stable for 20 years Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Does Region Matter? Hill, Wolman & Furdell

The Eastern Midwest Hill, Wolman & Furdell

The Top 25 in 2000 Hill, Wolman & Furdell

The Top 25 in 1980 Hill, Wolman & Furdell

The Bottom 25 Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Change in the Economic Wellbeing of City Residents: 1990 to 2000

How Well Did Most Distressed in 1990 Do? The Low Lower 48 The lower 1/3 of all cities with 125,000 population in 1990 on municipal distress index Calculated improvement in economic well being of residents from 1990 to 2000 Hill, Wolman & Furdell

Change in Economic Wellbeing of City Residents: 1990 to 2000 Percent change from 1990 to 2000 Per capita income Median household income Percentage point change from 1990 to 2000 Poverty rate Unemployment rate Labor force participation rate Hill, Wolman & Furdell

The Results—Most Improved Mean index of wellbeing improvement = -0.002, standard deviation = 4.017. Hill, Wolman & Furdell

The Results—The Fallen Hill, Wolman & Furdell

What Is To Be Learned? Difference between perception & reality—be wary of “best practices” and copy-cat strategy It is not regression to the mean Industrial composition matters Manufacturing coupled with low immigration Pay attention to fundamentals Hill, Wolman & Furdell