FTA 2006 – Impressions and Directions Luke Georghiou Chair Conference Technical Committee and PREST, Manchester Business School

The numbers game 160 participants, 35 countries, 50 papers, 17 e-posters, 5 themes and 6 working groups 51 methods in 13 families 800 foresight studies on EFMN Highlighting growing areas of activity that are not strongly visible in the public domain Higher Education, Business, Developing country A large enterprise the boundaries of which are not well defined or understood

Opening shots Underlying question of how FTA influences the policy process Challenged by statement that better FTA only leads to better decisions when decisions are based on logic but usually they are not Rumsfeld: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know Is policy influence the same as influencing decisions?

γνώθι σεαυτόν Reflexivity Cross-cutting theme of epistemology of FTA “FTA is not science” – seeking roots in social science and humanities Karl Popper resurrected: Poverty of Historicism Conjectures and Refutations and falsifiability of knowledge

Construct or adapt “Much more than a tool box – an instrument for the social construction of the future” Contrast with a conference keyword “adaptive” Foresight in the world of open innovation Bottom up approaches A more modest interpretation of the collective ability to shape the future Adapt to the future as shaped by others

The play’s the thing – the dominance of scenarios In HE and Business streams clearly emerging as the favoured communication device with policymakers Trigger a good discussion and make a lasting impression – balance radicality and extrapolation Normative/explorative divide not always explicit or even intentional as strong a problem among experts as among users Role of operators/organisers of FTA in shaping outcomes also not always explicit even when publicly attributing outcomes to content experts Dark scenarios will expand our vocabulary Cannot underestimate the importance of words – names and taxonomies are loaded with layers of meaning

Understand why the client wants FTA Many of the business stream papers presenting lists of motivations Stimulating coherence, change, resilience, organisational quality, confidence internally and externally FTA in business vs FTA for business Presentation and results always more important than methods once threshold of trust achieved Consolidation of trends Bottom-up platforms Exclusion of SMEs

Convergence with Policy domain FTA as policy intelligence vs FTA as policy instrument Facilitating, improving policymaking, informing and Symbolic function FTA is engaged with some key policy issues eg regulatory foresight but is it properly integrated in a policy process Embedded in endogenous cultural process

Ways forward No easy solutions Boundaries will remain fuzzy – we cannot even be clear about the T in FTA Way forward lies in accumulating experience and subjecting it to careful evaluation and validation Work with client and user communities to develop “intelligent customers” Training Cooperative working Resource issue for developing countries Need for our communities to support theirs Some signs of the emergence of a discipline with this conference an important step along the way