South Asia: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal + Korea April 2, 2015

Review Why did British India split into India and Pakistan in 1947? Is India a democracy? Has it been that way since independence? What was Nehru’s economic policy? (p 205-06) How was India’s economic policy changed since the early 1990s? (p. 207)

Women leaders India --Indira Gandhi Sri Lanka --widow of first prime minister became prime minister herself (the first in the world) and then later her daughter became the president. Pakistan: Benazir Bhutto was prime minister twice, and almost a third time Bangladesh: the widow of one ruler and the daughter of another alternated as prime minster between 1991 and today.

Pakistan (p. 210) founder Jinnah dies in 1948 Constitutional government until 1958, when a general seized control 1971 After Bangladesh breaks away, Bhutto is elected president. 1973 the military overthrows Bhutto (they execute him in 1978). 1988 General in charge dies in a mysterious plane crash. 1988 Benazir Bhutto wins election, is thrown out by a judge, wins again in 1993, but loses election in 1997. 1999 General Musharraf seizes power 2007 Benazir Bhutto assassinated while campaigning. Benazir Bhutto’s husband chosen President and becomes first elected chief of state to serve a full term (though after 2010 he handed over much of his power to the Prime Minister, from the same party.) In 2013, power was handed over peacefully to a different party, headed by an earlier president.

Bangladesh (pp. 211-212) 1970 An East Pakistan-based party wins a majority of seats in the Parliament. West Pakistan rejects that result, resulting in civil war that split Pakistan in two. 1971 East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh under Sheikh Mujib 1975 Sheikh Mujib is assassinated and General Zia seizes power. 1978 Zia allows free elections. 1981 Zia is assassinated. Another army government takes over 1990 popular protests lead to democratic elections. 1991 and 2001 Zia’s widow elected prime minister 1996 Sheikh Mujib’s daughter is elected Prime Minister 2007 Both women are jailed for corruption. The army assumes control but Mujib’s daughter wins Dec, 2008, election. She is still in power, having one one more election since then. (The opposition boycotted the last election.)

Sri Lanka (pp. 213-14) 1948: Sri Lanka gains its independence (as Ceylon) 1956 Sinhalese is made the national language, offending the minorityTamils. 1959 Prime Minister Bandaranaike is assassinated by a monk. His wife wins the next election. 1975 Name is changed from Ceylon to Sri Lanka 1983 Tamil rebellion begins. 1994 daughter of Bandaranaike is elected president under a new constitution, appoints her mother prime minister. 2001 opposition wins control of parliament 2005 opposition wins the presidency. Crushes Tamils in 2009 2015 A Sinhalese who called for reconciliation with the Tamils is elected president.

Nepal (pp. 212-213) Was an ally of the UK, and was never formally part of British India. 31 million inhabitants, mostly Hindus Was a monarchy until 2008 In 2002 a crown prince murdered 9 members of the royal family, including the king and queen. There was a strong Maoist insurgency. In 2008 the Maoists won a majority of seats in the parliamentary election. In 2013 they lost their majority and handed over power peacefully.

Roots of violence per capita GDP: (in US dollars) Sri Lanka India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal $6,500 $4,00 $3,100 $2,000 $1,500 literacy 91% 73% 55% 58% 58% Could British colonial rule be responsible for the fact that democracy has been stronger in South Asia than in China or in most of Southeast Asia until recently? (Did the French or the Dutch teach democracy? What about the Japanese?)

Korea Korea had been one country for over 1,000 years. Even the Japanese didn’t split it. But the US and the USSR did that in 1945. (Ebrey, 490-91) Republic of Korea (South Korea) formed in 1948, under President Syngman Rhee June 25, 1950, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) invades the south, starting the three-year Korean War. Under Rhee there was little industrialization. He relied on American military and economic assistance.

One-minute War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBeiD6kGugE

The Korean War Ebrey, 491-94 The United Nations authorized military action against the North Korean attempt to put all of the Korean peninsula under one government. This was the first time the UN took military action, giving it more credibility than the old League of Nations had had. Canada was part of the UN coalition. The People’s Republic of China sent “volunteers” to fight the US-led UN forces when it felt its northeastern border was threatened.

Park Chung Hee From General to President General Park Chung Hee seized power in a relatively bloodless coup in 1961. He then ran for president in two free elections in 1963 and 1967. He changed the constitution so he could run again in 1971. His opponent was Kim Dae Jung (p. 499) In 1972 Park changed the constitution to make himself president for life. In 1979 Park was shot and killed at a dinner party by the head of his own secret police.

South Korea Industrializes Ebrey, 500-501 Rhee overthrown in 1960. After a brief period of democracy, General Park Chung Hee seizes power in 1961. Under his leadership, Korea begins to industrialize (using the Japanese model for export-oriented state-led growth). General, and then President, Park Chung Hee realized South Korea needed to built up economic power to be strong enough to resist North Korea. (The North Korean economy was stronger than the South Korean economy then.) He inaugurated Japanese-style state-led growth. This is not socialism. Instead, he had his government encourage (though its control of banks) companies to invest in certain areas of the economy. He also encourage the formation of large conglomerates, called Jaebeol (Chaebŏl) , and had them compete against each other to avoid the inefficiency of a monopoly. He borrowed a lot from abroad but then earnings from exports allowed those loans to be repaid.

Economic Growth under Park and afterwards Year Per-capita GNP 1962 $87 1965 $105 1969 $210 1974 $540 1977 $1,008 1980 $1,592 1983 $2,002 1988 $4,004 2012 $32,400 Per capita income grew an average annual rate of 5.9% between 1953 and 2003.

Bloody Path to Democracy In 1972, after two free presidential elections, Park creates “Koreanized democracy” which eliminated elections and made him president for life. Those who opposed him were jailed, tortured, and even, in a few cases, killed. 1979 Park is assassinated by the head of his own secret police (Korean Central Intelligence Agency). 1979-80 General Chun Doo Hwan seizes control of the government in a coup in two parts. First, he attacks his own army headquarters. Then, on ----- May 18, 1980 Chun launches an attack on the city of Gwangju (Kwangju). At least 1,000 are killed. Chun then becomes president.

Authoritarianism and economic growth Is authoritarianism necessary for rapid economic development? Some say yes, because that is the only way capital can be concentrated in areas where it is most needed. Others say no, since authoritarian rulers will not be told when they have made mistakes. One thing is clear: authoritarianism may work in early economic development, but it becomes dysfunctional when the economy grows too complex for the government to manage.