U.S. Economic Outlook – Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing?

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Presentation transcript:

U.S. Economic Outlook – Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing? National Marine Bankers Association Key Largo, Florida November 14, 2006 Gina Martin Wachovia Economics 704.383.6805 gina.martin@wachovia.com

Economic Growth Slowing

Leadership Change Out with the Old In with the New

Spending Boom – Now a Bust? Real Personal Consumption and Real Disposable Income

Will Consumers Crack? Housing/Home Equity Energy and Health Care Costs Debt Payments Net Worth/Balance Sheets Tight Labor Market Income Growth

Affordability Turning the Corner

Mortgage Equity Withdrawals and Income

Housing Wealth Effect in the U.K.

Debt Levels and Ability to Pay Mortgage Delinquencies Financial Obligations Ratios

www.politicalcartoons.com

Net Worth and Household Assets Billions of Dollars

Wage Pressures Building “Sustainability of Labor Arbitrage” by Everest Research Institute – outsourcing IT can last for 18-25 more years in Asian mkts (India, China, Philippines), 3-6 years in Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic), 30+ years in Mexico Global outsourcing contract values up 173% Yr/Yr in 1Q

Retail Sales and Wages 3 Month Moving Averages

Wages Not the Only Story

Past Moderations Percent Change in Spending Growth (1987, 1995)

Boat Sales Off of 2005 High

Cash is Still King Sum of Checkable Deposits and Currency, Time and Savings Deposits, and Money Market Funds held by the Household sector

Demographics U.S. Population Distribution 2005 Marine Loan Customers

Where is “Neutral”? Two Fed Presidents (Moscow, Poole), A Governor (Kohn), and Chairman Bernanke all out talking the inflation game – rates are going higher Global inflation at a 10yr high at 2.4% from 2% last year (using global gdp deflator) Neutral is 5%? Watching – wage pressures as productivity slows Global game of interest rate increases – ECB to 2.75%, South Korea to 4.25%, India to 5.75%, South Africa, Denmark, Thailand, Turkey (15%)

“Unwelcome Developments” www.politicalcartoons.com

Inflation and Long Term Interest Rates