Colorado and Florida Target Counties for Clinton Group 1: Alex Lochard, Michael Kramer, Pieter De Wolf, Rachel Cohen

Problem Statement During political campaigns, candidates and parties are faced with limited resources which include time and money. That being said it is important to invest resources in geographical areas that will produce the greatest amount of votes

Research Goal Use several indicators based on political profile, voter profile, and population density to generalize votes Clinton and Trump are likely to obtain, then using ArcGIS evaluate which counties of the Republican party Clinton should put campaign effort to assure more votes for the general election

Methodology Determined which two states to analyze: Florida and Colorado, both major swing states in this upcoming election in which few votes may determine outcome of state’s winner which can determine the election Determined factors that influenced voters choices: these included: age, sex, ethnicity, income, occupation, education, urban or rural setting, party affiliation, and voter turnout Gathered data on all factors by county and created a joint shapefile of both states that included an attribute table including all data. Used this table to analyze each county

Methodology In Finding Focus Counties Created layers for each variable Selected counties that were republican Of those counties, used select by location to select counties that had attributes that favored Clinton Selected Republican Counties that had a majority of the population between 18 and 34 and 65 and above Selected Republican counties where women constituted a majority Selected Republican counties where a majority of residents were non-white Selected Republican counties where the median income was less than 50,000 dollars Selected Republican Counties where education levels favored Clinton Selected Republican counties where occupation favored Clinton

Methodology In Finding Focus Counties Created shape files from each selection Repeatedly used select by location to find Republican counties that contained the most variables that favored Clinton Used buffers and city selection of cities with population greater than 8000 residents to find ideal rally points in focus counties

Political Profile - Voter Turnout by Party Affiliation Blue counties represent Democratic Counties This is the strongest indicator since people generally vote in the general election based on their party affiliation

Voter Profile - Education Indicator Assume voters with a professional degree, high school diploma and less than high school education will vote for Trump, those with some college, Associate Degree, or Bachelor's Degree will vote for Clinton Purple counties represent Republican counties where education of population favors Clinton There have been several articles that acknowledge how uneducated people or people with just a high school diploma are likely to vote for Trump just because of his celebrity status/brand association, hence the Education levels of high school or less. Professional degrees are also likely to vote for Trump because of their assumed income and dislike for high income taxes. Rest of the education levels were assumed to vote for Hillary.

Voter Profile - Gender Indicator Assume women will vote for Clinton, men will vote for Trump Orange counties represent Republican counties where women constitute a majority of the population Paper about how females are more likely to hate Trump than men are to hate Hillary

Voter Profile - Income Indicator Assume those counties with Median Income > $50k will vote for Trump, those < $50k will vote for Clinton Green counties represent Republican counties where median income is below $50k

Voter Profile - Ethnicity Indicator Assume that White and Asian populations vote for Trump, and Black, Hispanic, Pacific Islander, and American Indian populations vote for Clinton Green counties represent Republican counties where ethnicity of population favors Clinton Since Trump tends to be slightly offensive to minorities, made a HUGE generalization that most minorities besides the asian/white population will vote for Hillary

Voter Profile - Age Indicator Assume ages 18-34, 65+ will vote for Clinton, 35-64 will vote for Trump Gold counties represents Republican counties where age favors Clinton Assumed young adults and the elderly will vote for Hillary (idea that old people may like what Bill Clinton accomplished in office so Hillary may have their vote, young adults because younger people tend to be more liberal)

Population Density - Urban/Rural Indicator Assume those in rural areas will vote for Trump and urban areas will vote for Clinton Pink counties represent Republican counties that are more urban and favor Clinton Rural = more conservative, Trump Urban = usually more liberal, Clinton

Voter Profile - Occupation Indicator Assume agriculture, finance, wholesale and transportation professions vote for Trump, construction, manufacturing, public administration, retail, education, arts and information professions vote for Clinton Green counties represent Republican counties that have occupation type populations that favor Clinton

Results

Conclusions Strongest indicators are party affiliation and voter turnout Based on overlap of all the indicators evaluated Clinton should focus on these Republican counties where she has a chance to gain more voters: Florida: Marion County, Manatee County, Highlands County Colorado: Otero County, Denver County In these counties, Clinton should consider having a rally in urban areas of these counties to win over voters.