St. Vincent de Paul- Sales and Opportunity Analysis Ali Ruzo Lauren Schick Sam Kenney Spencer Kilpatrick

St. Vincent de Paul World Wide Catholic Non-profit organization – Started in the United States in 1845 – about 950,000 involved in the society within 132 countries worldwide – Provides direct assistance to anyone suffering or in need for clothing, food, medical aid, employment and shelter All proceeds from the SVdP Thrift Store go to supporting programs such as: – Adult education GED, ESL, Parenting workshops, Financial empowerment workshops, Citizenship preparation classes – Youth Enrichment Programs Afterschool tutoring, lunch programs, nutrition programs – Relief Programs BACK-2-SCHOOL, Christmas shop, Holiday meals

Our Project Opportunity of Donations Hourly Sales Analysis Forecasting Regression Model

Opportunity of Donations Survey – 5 questions to gauge willingness to donate and knowledge of SVdP – Surveyed 4 Catholic schools – Approximately 100 adults All outside of 5 mile radius of store to get other input

Have you ever heard about St. Vincent de Paul Thrift store?

Have you ever donated to St. Vincent de Paul Thrift store?

How Willing are you to donate a high end clothing item?

Donation Opportunities Conclusions Target higher income areas Continue to explore donation options outside of 5 mile radius – Place more donation pick up trucks – SMU has agreed to further conversation for next year

Hourly Sales Analysis Analyzed the mean sales data hourly Descriptive statistics by: – Hours by day – Days by hour Looked for most and least profitable times using a color progression scale

Total Mean Sales *Most profitable mid-day Tuesday and Saturday *Least profitable Mondays

Mean Sales- Hourly *Most profitable usually Saturday *Least profitable usually Mondays

Mean Sales- Daily *Most profitable usually during the middle of the day

Hourly Sales Analysis Conclusions Monday is regularly the least profitable – Consider shorter hours of operation – Consider heavier advertisement and promotions Saturday and Tuesday are usually the most profitable – Consider scheduling staff appropriately – Continue using coupons and promotions

Regression Model Evaluated trend lines of the data

Daily Sales- Actual

Monthly Trends

Monthly Sales by Year

Day of the Week Trends

Day of the Week Trends Cont.

Create Monthly Factors *Used factors to weight the Regression Model appropriately for each month y = x R² =

Create Daily Factors y = x R² = *multiplied Y value by both monthly factor and daily factor

Regression-Monthly

Regression-Monthly by Year

Regression-Daily by Year Black Friday Factor = 2.18 *Christmas and Thanksgiving are set to zero

Regression Model Daily R 2 = 0.52 *the model now explains 52% of the daily sales (rather than only 15% from the original trend line)

Regression Model Monthly R 2 = 0.78 *the monthly forecasting model now explains 78% of the sales

Usable Forecasting Model StatementOutputInput IF Checks whether the condition is met, and returns one value if TRUE and another if FALSE IF(logical_test, [value_if_true], [value_if_false]) WEEKDAY Returns a number from 1 to 7 identifying the day of the week of the date WEEKDAY(serial_number, [return_type]) MONTH Returns the month, a number from 1 (January) to 12 (December) MONTH(serial_number) DATEDIF returns the difference between two date values, based on the interval specified. DateDif( start_date, end_date, interval ) DAY Returns the number that represents the date in Microsoft Excel date-time code DATE(serial_number)

Embedded If-Statements An example line from the embedded If-Statement: =IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=1,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$10*$D$4, IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=2,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20, L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$4*$D$4,IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=3,MONTH( L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$5*$D$4,IF(A ND(WEEKDAY(L6)=4,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L 6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$6*$D$4,IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=5,MONTH(L 6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$7*$D$4,IF(A ND(WEEKDAY(L6)=6,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L 6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$8*$D$4,IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=7,MONTH(L 6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$9*$D$4,…….

Forecasting for 2011

Questions?