Potentials & Future Integration to the Energy System. Role of Biomass in the Energy Market of Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine. Potentials & Future Integration to the Energy System. Centre for Renewable Energy Sources – CRES C. Perakis Main aim the formation of repsective policy in these countries Funded by: 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Project team CRES C. Panoutsou; C. Perakis; V. Papandreou; S. Ntoulas Albania A. Saraci; T. Thimjo (NANR) BiH P. Gvero (Banja Luka University); S. Petrovic (IGT) Croatia J. Domac (REGEA) FYROM K. Popovski (MANU) Montenegro V. Nikcevic Serbia D. Stojiljkovic; B. Glavonjic (Belgrade University) Moldova C. Bordeianu (CAPMU) Ukraine T. Zheliezna; G. Geletukha (SEC Biomass LTD) 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Biomass potential estimation Approach Technical Available Potential Competitive uses Availability constrains Costs Bottom up Theoretical Potential Reference year: 2008 Wastes Fuelwood Residual Biomass Energy Crops Wood Industry Residues Agro Industry Residues Data sources National statistics Recent literature National Experts Forest Residues Fuelwood Wood Industry Agro Industry Agricultural Residues Composition/ Availability Μιλάω μόνο για τα αριστερά Supply – Demand interactions National experts: statistics validation; main assumptions Present results for residual biomass plus fuelwood. The enrgy crops scenarios and the MSW are on a final validation stage Energy crops (types, yields) Cutting/ Thinning / Yield, Residues Biomass feedstocks Residual biomass Fuelwood Energy crops MSW (organic fraction) Forestry - Wood Crops, Yields Crop Land Set aside Land Pasture , Forests MSW Land Use

Countries’ biomass technical potential (PJ) 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Current biomass use in relation to the potential 1st slide: porportion of biomass potential that is currently used. Official statistics may include unregistered fuelwood. Incoherent statistics/ Studies show a much greater consumption in some countries. On top of that there are several estimations that 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Biomass potentials as % of TPES Next slide: breakdown to agro and forestry 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Relative contribution of agriculture & forestry to the biomass potentials as % of TPES 37% 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Biomass potential estimation at a regional (NUTS 3) level Moldova Livestock residues Technical potential (PJ) 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Bio-energy demand analysis Biofuels for road transport 10% share (energy content) by 2020/15% by 2030 Mix of 1st & 2nd generation Co-firing 5% by mass of current use of solid fuel PP and DH units Woody biomass & energy crops Biogas Decentralized CHP No pumping to natural gas grid Livestock residues CHP Decentralized CHP units Woody biomass, straw, energy crops Scenarios cover 4 end uses low share of 2nd gen in 2020 (95% 1st gen); high in 2030 Εξατάζουμε τη δυνατότητα του δυναμικού βιομάζας να καλύψει το στόχο 5% σε σύγκαυση Up to which point they can meet 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Example of preliminary outcomes for BioFuels in Moldova Road Transport Bio-fuels Projections using data for CEE countries from EC’s “EU Energy Trends to 2030” Targets equal ~2,5 PJ for 2020 and 3,4 PJ for 2030 Land requirements for own production: Scen1 – 80,4 kha Scen 2 – 69 kha

Conclusions Fuelwood and residual biomass potential ranges from 4 – 521 PJ in the under study countries. Agricultural biomass is dominant in UA, MD, SR and forest biomass in BA, ME, while in the rest both sectors contribute similar potentials. Biomass potential ranges from 9 – 17% of TPES with the exception of Moldova (43%) Regional level of analysis gives the opportunity to identify areas with high biomass concentration for future investment. Current potential from residual biomass could contribute significantly to co-firing or existing DH plants in the immediate future. Biofuels from conventional crops (1st gen.) not well developed but with good potential for 2020. 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Recommendations for Future work Improve statistical coherence for energy, agriculture and forestry. Harmonization with EU27 Cost analysis for well defined biomass to energy and fuel chains. Account for competition and alternative markets Value of co-products Improved energy systems modeling analysis. Bankable projects in the short and medium term. Bankable projects: define and perform pre-feasibility studies 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010

Thank you Bankable projects: define and perform pre-feasibility studies 3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change Athens, 7-8 October 2010