VIP Investment Management Report

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Presentation transcript:

VIP Investment Management Report

Economic Overview Fed Funds Target Rate The Federal Reserve increased its target rate to a range of 1.00% to 1.25% on June 15, 2017. The June rate hike was the fourth increase in the past 18 months. The FOMC believes the economy has improved enough to withstand higher interest rates and began the tightening process in December of 2015. Source: Bloomberg

FOMC Dot Plot – September 2017 Economic Overview FOMC Dot Plot – September 2017 Source: Bloomberg

Comparative Historical Yield Curves Economic Overview Comparative Historical Yield Curves Interest rates are generally higher along the U.S. Treasury yield curve as the Fed has begun its tightening cycle. The yield curve has flattened as expectations for growth an inflation have diminished over the past six months. Source: Bloomberg

Money Market Yield Curves Economic Overview Money Market Yield Curves The yield spread between short-term Treasuries and discount notes remain at very tight levels. Adding credit in the form of commercial paper enhances the yield of the portfolio. Money market yields continue to rise following the FOMC rate increase in June 2017. Source: Bloomberg

US Average Hourly Earnings Economic Overview Labor Market US Unemployment Rate US Average Hourly Earnings The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in August up from a 16-year low of 4.3% in July. Average hourly earnings increased 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in August. Source: Bloomberg

Economic Overview Consumer Price Index Inflation continues to trend away from the Fed’s 2% target in 2017. Recent softness in inflation numbers has cast doubt on the Fed’s ability to continue to raise rates at its forecasted pace. CPI on a year-over-year basis has decreased to 1.9% in August, down from 2.5% in January. Source: Bloomberg

Institute for Supply Management Economic Overview Institute for Supply Management ISM Manufacturing for August was 58.8 signaling continued expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy. ISM Non-manufacturing (Service) increased in August to 55.3 up from 53.9 in July. ISM Non- manufacturing decreased sharply in July from 57.4 to 53.9. Decline was largest since November 2008, however index remains above 50 signaling continued expansion in the service sector. Source: Bloomberg

Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Economic Overview Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.1 % annualized pace during the second quarter of 2017. Consumer Spending increased at a 3.3% annual pace adding 2.3% to second quarter growth. GDP growth expectations remain at 2.0-2.5% for the foreseeable future. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Safety Adhere to Virginia Code and VIP Board Policy Follow requirements of S&P Diversification requirements WAM restrictions Rigorous credit review process Active pre and post-trade compliance

VIP Asset Allocation as of August 31, 2017 Safety VIP Asset Allocation as of August 31, 2017 VIP Stable NAV Allocation VIP 1-3 Year Fund Allocation Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Portfolio Characteristics VIP Stable NAV Portfolio VACo/VML VIP Stable NAV Liquidity Investment Pool August 31, 2017 Ending Balance Par Value $ 481,985,310.56 Portfolio Characteristics August 31, 2017 30 Day Average Net Yield 1.20% Days to Final Maturity 71.45 Days Days to Reset 53.06 Days VACo/VML VIP Stable NAV Liquidity Investment Pool August 31, 2017 Ending Balance Historical Cost $ 481,469,993.26 Book Value $ 481,620,750.10 Accrued Interest 695,310.95 Book Value Plus Accrued $ 482,316,061.05 Net Unrealized Gain/Loss 6,613.61 Market Value Plus Accrued $ 482,322,674.66 Net Pending Transactions - Market Value Plus Accrued Net Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Portfolio Characteristics VIP 1-3 Year Fund Portfolio VACo/VML Virginia Investment Pool August 31, 2017 Ending Balance Historical Cost $ 347,972,110.70 Book Value $ 346,134,392.09 Accrued Interest 1,341,050.56 Book Value Plus Accrued $ 347,475,442.65 Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (359,465.09) Market Value Plus Accrued $ 347,115,977.56 Net Pending Transactions - Market Value Plus Accrued Net Portfolio Characteristics August 31, 2017 Book Yield Gross 1.31% Market Yield Gross 1.39% Weighted Average Coupon 1.72% Duration 1.73 Years Weighted Effective Maturity 1.79 Years Weighted Final Maturity 1.81 Years Trailing Month Trailing Quarter Trailing Year Fiscal Year to Date Since Inception Total Return Performance   Periodic Annualized VACo/VML 1-3 Year High Quality Bond Fund 0.19% 0.39% 0.63% 0.42% 0.94% BofA ML 1-3 Year AAA-AA Corp/Gov Index 0.20% 0.35% 0.62% 0.82% Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Portfolio Characteristics VIP Stable NAV Asset Allocation Security Distribution   August 31, 2017 Ending Balance Portfolio Allocation Permitted by Policy Compliant U.S. Treasury Securities $ 9,989,722.00 2.07% 100.00% YES Federal Instrumentalities $ 4,999,700.00 1.04% Commercial Paper $ 145,396,339.10 30.19% 35.00% Certificates of Deposit $ 305,506,598.05 63.43% Corporate Notes $ 5,099,694.00 1.06% Repurchase Agreements $ 10,635,310.56 2.21% Total Portfolio Market Value $ 481,627,363.71 VIP 1-3 Year Asset Allocation Security Distribution   August 31, 2017 Ending Balance Portfolio Allocation Permitted by Policy Compliant Cash $ - 0.00% 100.00% YES U.S. Treasury Notes $ 170,736,070.97 49.19% FNMA $ 42,308,211.21 12.19% FHLMC $ 44,748,816.20 12.89% FFCB $ 612,771.94 0.18% FHLB $ 20,098,084.51 5.79% Fed Instrumentality Subtotal $ 107,767,883.87 31.05% Corporate Notes $ 59,587,961.63 17.17% Municipal Bonds $ 9,024,061.08 2.60% Total Portfolio Market Value $ 347,115,977.56 100.01% *includes accrued interest Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Portfolio Maturity Distribution VIP Maturity Distribution VIP Stable NAV Maturity Distribution VIP 1-3 Year Maturity Distribution Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Portfolio Ratings and Compliance Portfolio Allocation by Standard & Poor’s Rating VIP Stable NAV Ratings Distribution VIP 1-3 Year Ratings Distribution Portfolio Compliance Compliant Security Distribution YES Maturity Distribution Rating Distribution Portfolio Compliance Compliant Security Distribution YES Maturity Distribution Rating Distribution Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Liquidity Adherence to Board Policy and VA State Code Follow Requirements of Rating Agencies Evaluate historical data to determine potential fund flows Portfolio Considerations

Follow Requirements of Rating Agencies Liquidity Follow Requirements of Rating Agencies 60 Days to Reset Maximum Allowed by Guidelines 90-120 Days to Final Maximum Allowed by Guidelines Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

VIP Stable NAV Adherence to S&P Guidelines Liquidity VIP Stable NAV Adherence to S&P Guidelines WAM Breakdown Security Type August 31, 2017 Security Type Market Value WAM Contribution Commercial Paper A-1+/P-1 $103,518,081.00 14.48 Commercial Paper A-1/P-1 $41,878,258.10 6.96 U.S. Treasury Bills AA+/Aaa $4,992,456.50 0.58 U.S. Treasury Notes AA+/Aaa $ 4,997,265.50 0.63 Repurchase Agreements A-1+ $10,635,310.56 0.02 U.S. Government Agency Securities AA+/Aaa $4,999,700.00 0.3 Certificates of Deposits A-1+ $135,003,687.90 13.55 Certificates of Deposit A-1 $170,502,910.15 15.79 Corporate Securities AA- $5,099,694.00 0.74 Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Yield Asset Allocation Performance Portfolio Considerations

Comparison Yields – October 2016 through August 2017 Each local government investment pool (LGIPS) being compared is governed by the same specific state statutes, but each may have its own unique investment policy to further restrict permissible investments. Consequently, such LGIPS may vary in investment strategy, style, and fee structure. Such differences may account for variances in yield, weighted average maturities and portfolio composition. Figures are an average of the daily yields for the month. Past Performance is no guarantee of future results. Any financial and/or investment decision may incur losses. See Additional Disclosures for more information. *Yields shown are average daily yields for the month of August 2017. Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC, www.vasnap.com/current-rates/, www.trs.virginia.gov/cash/lgip.aspx

VIP Liquid vs. S&P AAA/AA GIP Comparison 30 Day Net Yields The benchmark, the S&P US AAA & AA Rated GIP All 30 Day Net Yield (LGIP30D) is a performance indicator of rated GIPs that maintain a stable net asset value of $1.00 per share and is an unmanaged market index representative of the LGIP universe. The S&P benchmark utilized in this comparison is a composite of all rated stable net asset value pools. GIPs in the index include only those rated based on Standard & Poor’s money market criteria. Pools rated ‘AAAm’ provide excellent safety and a superior capacity to maintain principal value while those rated ‘AAm’ offer very good safety and a strong capacity to maintain principal value (Source: Standard & Poor’s website). The comparison between this index and the portfolio may differ in holdings, duration, fee, and percentage composition of each holding. Such differences may account for variances in yield. Past Performance is no guarantee of future results. Any financial and/or investment decision may incur losses. *30-day yield as of August 31, 2017 ** as of August 31, 2017 Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC and Bloomberg

Balance Information – VIP since transition in November 2016 Year In Review Balance Information – VIP since transition in November 2016 Source: Public Trust Advisors, Net Asset Figures

VIP Participant Analysis Combined Fund Participant Breakdown as of August 31, 2017 Accounts by Type Balance by Type Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

VIP Stable NAV Liquidity Participant Breakdown VIP Stable NAV Participant Breakdown as of August 31, 2017 Accounts by Type Balance by Type Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

VIP 1-3 High Quality Bond Fund VIP 1-3 Year Participant Breakdown as of August 31, 2017 Accounts by Type Balance by Type Source: Public Trust Advisors, LLC

Additional Disclosure This presentation is for informational purposes only. All information is assumed to be correct but the accuracy has not been confirmed and therefore is not guaranteed to be correct. Information is obtained from third party sources that may or may not be verified. The information presented should not be used in making any investment decisions and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, implement or change any securities or investment strategy, function or process. Any financial and/or investment decision should be made only after considerable research, consideration and involvement with an experienced professional engaged for the specific purpose. All comments and discussion presented are purely based on opinion and assumptions, not fact, and these assumptions may or may not be correct based on foreseen and unforeseen events. All calculations and results presented and are for discussion purposes only and should not be used for making calculations and/or decisions. The data in this presentation is unaudited. This presentation material is for the sole purpose of the VIP Board of Trustees. Performance comparisons will be affected by changes in interest rates. Investment returns fluctuate due to changes in market conditions. Investment involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. No assurance can be given that the performance objectives of a given strategy will be achieved. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance or results. Any financial and/or investment decision may incur losses. The investment advisor providing these services is Public Trust Advisors, LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additionally, this registration provides no guarantee of return or protection against loss.