ANPR, EPA, CCSP: USBS? Dr. Patrick J. Michaels Professor of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Senior Fellow, Cato Institute

ADVANCE NOTICE OF PROPOSED RULEMAKING, EPA Scientific Rationale: “Technical Support Document [TSD] for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Emissions”

Would Climate Models Stand Up in Court?

Have the global warming models failed? --Examine the suite of 21 IPCC climate models --Midrange “emissions” scenario --Examine one (cold) tail at .025 significance level --Data through 2008 show model precisely on the edge of systematic failure

Atmospheric Change Climate Models Climate Impacts

Observed global temperature anomalies, 1977-2008

IPCC AR4 A1B Temperature Change

Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures Model Projections Observed Trend

Global temperature projections from 21 climate models 2000-2020

Comparison of Model Projections and Observed Temperature Trends

Comparison of Model Projections and Observed Temperature Trends (assuming 2009 to be the same as 2008)

Comparison of Model Projections and Observed Temperature Trends (with and without the influence of volcanoes)

MISLEADING STATEMENT “Global mean surface temperatures have risen by 0.74 deg C over the last 100 years. The rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over the last 100 years…With an increased rate of warming during the past 30 years”. (TSD Page ES-1)

LAND-BASED WARMING “Surface temperatures over land have risen about….0.27 deg C per decade…” (p. 23)

McKitrick and Michaels, 2007 NON-CLIMATIC EFFECTS IN IPCC HISTORY --ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND LAND-USE EFFECTS --GDP, GDP GROWTH, EDUCATION ALL AFFECT QUALITY OF CLIMATE HISTORIES

Relative Importance of Significant Predictors

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE

Effects of Economic Signals in the Surface Temperature Record (Data source: McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)

ADJUSTMENT FOR NON-CLIMATIC EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURE

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN US PRECIPITATION pp. 28-29, TSD. What about the last three decades? Are they unusual??

WRONG: “Antarctic sea ice extent, however, shows no statistically significant average trends”. (p. 32, TSD) Rise significant at .0001 level

Conflation of melting of Alaska glaciers with global warming (TSD, p Conflation of melting of Alaska glaciers with global warming (TSD, p. 32). Wrong. Alaska’s temperatures show a single step-change in 1976-77, not the signature expected from global warming.

“The latitudinal pattern of changes in land precipitation over the 20th century…appear[s] to be consistent with the response to anthropogenic forcing. Wrong. From Zhang et al., 2007:

Exaggeration: negative changes in precipitation in Pacific Southwest of 3.0 inches/year. Reality: Decline of 1.5 inches/year in 100 years

“Complete” disintegration of Greenland Ice Sheet would take “many hundreds of years” to complete” (TSD, p. 59) Wrong. It takes thousands of years under unrealistically high assumptions for carbon dioxide.

EPA cites IPCC projections of increased flood damage in U. S. (P EPA cites IPCC projections of increased flood damage in U.S. (P. 66, lines 34-42). Wrong. Flood-related damage per unit GDP shows no significant trend (Downton et al, 2005).

EPA claims increased U. S EPA claims increased U.S. damages from hurricanes as planet warms (TSD, p. 67, 4-13) Wrong. No change whatsoever after allowing for population, inflation, and property values (Pielke et al., 2008)

“Above average temperatures in the U. S “Above average temperatures in the U.S. during the summers of 2002-2004 were linked to the greatest transmissions of West Nile virus” (TSD, p. 68). Absolutely Wrong. WNV spread across entire nation, regardless of temperature.

“Saint Louis Encephalitis has a tendency to appear in hot, dry La Nina years”. (TSD p. 68) 1. La Nina years tend to be cold 2. IPCC projects no change in frequency

Any Trend in St. Louis Encephalatis?

Reality: The disease flourishes in cool climates! EPA: the northern range limit of…the tick that carries Lyme disease, could shift north 200km by the 2020s. (p. 68m 13-16) Reality: The disease flourishes in cool climates!

EPA quotes IPCC on mortality and global warming (p 68). Reality:

Climate Change Endangers U.S. Agriculture

“April snow water equivalents have declined 15-30% since 1950 in the western mountains of North America”. (TSD, p. 86) Reality: Stop cherry-picking the data!! From Cayan, 1996:

To view the entire sad story: SHAKY SCIENCE: INCONVENIENT TRUTHS IGNORED BY EPA IN ITS PROPOSAL TO REGULATE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS http://www.cato.org/pubs/articles/michaels_ANPR_EPA.pdf