Incident Modeling Capability for Air Releases Idaho DEQ Rick Hardy, Sara Strachan, Wei Zhang IDHW, Office of Epidemiology & Food Protection Kris Carter DVM, MPVM Sponsor: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 9/17/2018

Request from State Health Department: Initially Immediately following an emergency atmospheric release, accidental or terrorist, can you assist the Idaho Dept. H&W, Office of Epidemiology by: Mapping affected areas? Estimating concentrations? Estimating number of persons affected? Providing addresses? Later Forecast where the contaminant plume will go tomorrow? i. e. Support Incident Management, evacuations, etc. Support more realistic planning, training and exercise development 9/17/2018

Why not use existing models? Sources Met Inputs Ok for Terrain? Useful Range ALOHA Spills Real-time NO 6 km DOD’s HPAC (SCIPUFF) WMD Real-time & Forecast ? CALPUFF Spills,fires, WMD Forecast YES Few km to regional NOAA’s HYSPLIT 10s km to regional DOE’s ARAC at LLNL YES? Local to global 9/17/2018

CAMEO/ALOHA Strengths Very fast Good source term module for spills On-site use Real-time meteorological data Ease of use and responder familiarity Deficiencies 1 hour or 6 km cutoff No wind shift w/terrain No fires/plume rise No particulates No deposition No forecast 9/17/2018

ALOHA Model 9/17/2018

Why not use existing models? Sources Met Inputs Ok for Terrain? Useful Range ALOHA Spills Real-time NO 6 km DOD’s HPAC (SCIPUFF) WMD Real-time & Forecast ? CALPUFF Spills,fires, WMD Forecast YES Few km to regional NOAA’s HYSPLIT 10s km to regional DOE’s ARAC at LLNL YES? Local to global 9/17/2018

Key Features of this CALPUFF Application Terrain resolution down to 250m 264 pre-configured source terms Includes Idaho-specific hazards Relies on ALOHA source terms for spills Includes fires, explosions, particulates Ability to forecast Outputs affected population estimates and addresses Includes ground deposition Initial results very fast (1 hour) 9/17/2018

GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses Air Incident Modeling Steps 1 Met From UW Source modeling MET Pre-processing Construct Modeling Domain Manual input of Domain, Source, Met Terrain Data Land Use Data 3 2 4 5 GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses Run CALPUFF 9/17/2018

Variable Modeling Domains/Resolution 1 id_4km CDA_1km CDA_500m Lewiston_1km Lewiston_500m Lewiston_250m Riggins_500m McCall_500m Boise_1km TwinFalls_1km Salmon_1km Salmon_500m Pocatello_1km Pocatello_250m 9/17/2018

CALMET.DAT for Specific Domain Daily Met Processing 2 UW MM5 12km and 4km DEQ Linux Cluster 3D.DAT CALMET.DAT for IDAHO 4km Domain Transfer CALMM5 CALMET Optional (On Demand) The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (known as MM5) is a limited-area, nonhydrostatic, terrain-following sigma-coordinate model designed to simulate or predict mesoscale atmospheric circulation. 4GB UW MM5 data will transfer to DEQ every day, need 6 hours to transfer to our Satellite server Need 8 hours to transfer to linux cluster and process through calmm5 and calmet, produce ready to used met data for Idaho 4km Domain CALMET CALMET.DAT for Specific Domain 9/17/2018

Pre-Configured Source Terms 3 Type Category Basis Model Spills Industrial EPCRA RMPs ALOHA Rail Transp. Stats Tank Truck Toxic Fires Pool/tank Fuels NuReg HRR Waste/Tire EPA Toxics HRR/EPA Warehouse British HSE HRR Intentional Releases Aircraft Ag Spray Info Eng Calc Explosive ANL/ADMLC River Volatiles Rail/Truck by River Transp. Stats/ RiverSpill Volatile model 9/17/2018

Industrial Releases Based on EPA Risk Management Plans (RMPs) 3.5M lbs 9/17/2018

Industrial - Catastrophic Aloha Based Source Parameters 9/17/2018

Gravity Flow for Dense Gas Releases 9/17/2018

Dense Gas Modeling of Large and Small Anhydrous Ammonia Releases Conclusion: Approximate with enhanced initial puff dimensions 9/17/2018

Transportation Sources 9/17/2018

Transportation Spills: Rail & Truck Aloha Based Source Parameters 9/17/2018

Pool Fire Scenarios Species Modeled Benzene Formaldehyde Acrolein Naphthalene Benzo(a)pyrene 9/17/2018

Chemical Warehouse Fire S, Cl combustion by-product emissions and unburned residual toxics 9/17/2018

Wastepile/Tire Fires 9/17/2018

Aerial Dispersal 9/17/2018

Explosive Dispersal (RDD) Sources “Dirty Bombs” 9/17/2018

Explosive Dispersal (RDD) 9/17/2018

Explosive Dispersal (ADMLC) 9/17/2018

GUI Main Flow Chart 4 Select or Generate Calmet Output Enter Scenario Description Enter Source Location Select Modeling Domain Create Working Directory Create Input Files Customize Source Term Select Source Term Output for CALVIEW/ Surfer and GIS Run Calpuff and Calpost Generate Summary Final Tune 9/17/2018

CALPUFF Incident Modeling Interface 9/17/2018

Enter Scenario Name and Description 9/17/2018

Enter Source Coordinates 9/17/2018

Select Domain/Domain Resolution 9/17/2018

Lewiston 1 km resolution selected 9/17/2018

Lewiston 500m resolution selected 9/17/2018

Select Meteorology file. Process it if needed. 9/17/2018

Select Source Category and Template 9/17/2018

Revise Scenario to fit Incident Details 9/17/2018

Review Scenario. Document Run. 9/17/2018

Map output example 9/17/2018

Streamlined GIS Outputs Number of Persons Affected 5 Streamlined GIS Outputs Census data Address Ranges Street address data 9/17/2018

Days to complete from scratch Air Incident Modeling Steps - Before Met Data Source modeling MET Pre-processing Construct Modeling Domain Manual input of Domain, Source, Met Terrain Data Land Use Data GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses Days to complete from scratch Run CALPUFF 9/17/2018

GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses Air Incident Modeling Steps - Now Pre-Configured/ Pre-Processed Run CALPUFF Met Data Source modeling MET Pre-processing Construct Modeling Domain GUI for Rapid selection of Domain, Source, Met Terrain Data Land Use Data New Interface & Streamlined GIS GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses 45 – 90 minutes total time! 9/17/2018

Example Result: Pocatello Chlorine Simulation Source location 9/17/2018

Preliminary Result 9/17/2018

Outputs in 1 hour GIS Map Population Estimates Address Ranges (1 ppm) 9/17/2018

Managing Uncertainties Wind field uncertainty Field observation of plume or wind direction On-line met station observation sites Depict directional uncertainty on maps Move toward ensemble Met & AQ runs (someday) Buoyant plume rise for fire sources Observer reports of plume height/behavior Inadequate source term knowledge site specific information from the field is important Census problems w/work-day populations 9/17/2018

Summary A New capability for Idaho Potential new area for other NW-AirQuest jurisdictions? (i.e. new funding source). Important to manage met uncertainties!! Consider UW ensemble products to depict plume probability zones? 9/17/2018