The Human Population and Urbanization Chapter 6

Key Concepts Factors affecting population size Human population problems Managing population problems Urban growth Resource and environmental problems in urban areas Transportation in urban areas Achieving sustainable cities

Is the World Overpopulated? 7.2 - 10.6 billion people by 2050 Limited resources Environmental impacts (I=PAT) Some say no- Longer lifespans Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase Religion and population growth Freedom and population growth Poverty- 20% people without basic necessities Ecological footprint Fig. 6-1, p. 94

Is the World Overpopulated? Click for Current US and World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Fig. 6-1, p. 94

Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population change equation Population change = (Births +Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries) Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years

Average Crude Birth and Death Rates Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 World’s birth rate = 2.1% 9 World’s death rate = 0.9% World’s pop. Growth rate = 1.2% All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Developing countries (w/o China) 27 9 Crude Growth Rate ÷ 10 = % Growth Rate

Average Crude Birth and Death Rates Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate Africa 38 14 Latin America 22 6 Asia 20 7 18 Oceania 7 United States 14 8 North America 14 8 10 Europe 12

Current and projected population sizes by region. Animation Current and projected population sizes by region.

How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly? Human intelligence and adaptation- enabled expansion to diverse habitats & new climate zones Agriculture - feeds more people per unit area Medical technologies and sanitation- controls infectious disease

Describing Population Changes Replacement-level fertility= # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx 2.1 - 2.4) Total fertility rate (TFR)= average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0) Projecting global populations: 2050 projected pop. = 7.2-10.6 billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries US fertility rates- see figure 6-4, p. 98

World Population Projections Fig. 6-2, p. 96

US Fertility Rates (1917-2005) Fig. 6-4, p. 98

Major Changes in US Society (1900-2000) 47 years Life expectancy 77 years 8% Married women working outside the home 81% 15% High school graduates 83% 10% Homes with flush toilets 98% 2% Homes with electricity 99% 10% Living in suburbs 52% 1900 $3 Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) 2000 $15 1.2 Homocides per 100,000 people 5.8 Fig. 6-5, p. 99

Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates *** Child labor- very important in developing countries Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age ≥ 25 years Abortion- 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal) Availability of birth control Culture, religious values, and traditions

Very Effective Birth Control Methods Extremely Effective Total abstinence 100% Sterilization 99.6% Vaginal ring 98-99% Highly Effective IUD with slow-release hormones 98% IUD plus spermicide 98% Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) 97% IUD 95% Condom (good brand) plus spermicide 95% Oral contraceptive 93%

Mostly Effective Birth Control Methods Cervical cap 89% Condom (good brand) 86% Diaphragm plus spermicide 84% Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) 84% Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide 83% Spermicide (foam) 82%

Least Effective Birth Control Methods Moderately Effective Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) 75% Withdrawal 74% Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) 74% Condom (cheap brand) 70% Unreliable Douche 40% Chance (no method) 10%

Factors Affecting Death Rates Life expectancy: global average years = 69 Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a society’s quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply

Immigration into the US 41% of annual population growth Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) Arguments to reduce immigration: 58% support • Allow population to stabilize • Reduce environmental impact Arguments for immigration • “Give me your hungry, your tired your poor…’ • Tax revenues $$$ • immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs • After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire

Population Age Structures 0.3 - 1.4% 0 - 0.2% 1.5 - 3% Negative growth Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Expanding Slowly United States Australia Canada Stable Spain Austria Greece Declining Germany Bulgaria Italy Prereproductive ages 0-14 Reproductive ages 15-44 Postreproductive ages 45-85+ In 2005, 29% of people on planet were younger than 15 years old Fig. 6-6, p. 102

Examples of age structure interaction Animation Examples of age structure interaction

Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation Fig. 6-8, p. 103

U.S. age structure interaction. Animation U.S. age structure interaction.

Effects of Population Decline 40 nations have stable or declining populations UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA) Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems Labor and social security problems Social and economic impacts of AIDS

Solutions: Influencing Population Size ***Demographic transition Family planning Improve health care Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of world’s income. See stats of p.138 Developing national population policies Improve education, especially for women Increase involvement of men in parenting Reduce poverty Reduce unsustainable consumption

Demographic Transition Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial High 80 70 60 Birth rate 50 Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Relative population size 40 30 Death rate 20 10 Total population Low Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative Growth rate over time Fig. 6-10, p. 105

Animation- Demographic transition model

Case Study: Hindrances to Family Planning Programs in India Poor planning of family planning programs Bureaucratic inefficiency Low status of women Extreme poverty Lack of administrative and financial support

Case Study: Family Planning in China Economic incentives- extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$ Free medical care for participants Preferential treatment for participants- free school tuition Very coercive and intrusive- free sterilization, contraception, Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide China’s Pop could peak in 2040, then decline

Demographic Data on India and China Percentage of world population 17% 20% Population 1.1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.63 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 17% Population under age 15(%) 36% 22% Population growth rate (%) 1.6% 0.6% 3.0 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) Total fertility rate 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 64 27 62 years Life expectancy 71 years Percent living below $2 per day 81 47 GDP PPP per capita $2,880 $4,980