A Fishery Management Index: Factors affecting fisheries management and stock status in major fishing countries Mike Melnychuk 1, Emily Peterson 2, Matthew Elliot 2, Ray Hilborn 1 1 University of Washington 2 California Environmental Associates

Incredible diversity of fishery management systems Multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives Wide array of strategies and tactics used Diverse regions, fishing fleets, and taxa Historical, political, cultural & social factors

Characterizing a management system: Expert surveys covering research, management, enforcement, and socioeconomic aspects Aggregate simple 0/1 answers into overall ‘performance’ measure: Fisheries Management Index (FMI) 2 questions: What external factors affect management performance? Which specific management attributes affect stock status?

Research Management Enforcement Socioeconomics objectives and fishery management plan regulations to limit fishing pressure capacity to adjust regulations and fishing pressure landings data body size or age data surveys to monitor abundance trends stock assessments Enforcement Socioeconomics dockside monitoring & at-sea observers penalties and compliance protection of sensitive habitats discarding and by-catch measures controls on access and entry transparency community involvement capacity-enhancing subsidies

Country-level fisheries management survey 28 countries 10 species per country (semi-randomized) 46 questions among 5 dimensions: ` Country X Species 1 Species 2 Species 3 Species 4 Species 5 Species 6 Species 7 Species 8 Species 9 Species 10 Confidence level Research … Management 1 0.5 NA A B Enforcement Socioeconomics Stock status

Average response by dimension FMI n = 191 survey responses

What external factors affect management performance? Which specific management attributes affect stock status? Inputs STATE Outputs

Predictors of FMI considered Country-level numerical covariates: Absolute latitude log EEZ area log Coastline length / land area log Seafood protein provision log Coastal population log Per-capita GDP log Total catch Current / maximum catch % “nei” groups in FAO landings log Seafood exports / imports log “Good” subsidy index log “Bad” subsidy index geographic & economic fishery-related Respondent background expertise: Government / management Government / science University Fishing industry Environmental NGO External organization

Gov./mgmt. Gov./sci. Industry Univ. External ENGO n = 191 survey responses

What external factors affect management performance? Which specific management attributes affect stock status? Inputs STATE Outputs

Management attributes evaluated Qualitative stock status variables Research: Landings data Body size and/or age data Stock assessments Surveys of abundance trends Fisheries management plan Fishing pressure limits Capacity to adjust fishing pressure Fisheries enforcement Discarding and by-catch measures Protection of sensitive habitats Fishing access and entry controls Transparency and involvement Absence of ‘bad’ subsidies Current abundance Current fishing pressure Trend in abundance Trend in fishing pressure Management: Enforcement: Socioeconomics:

n = 191 survey responses

Summary What external factors affect management performance? per-capita GDP capacity-enhancing subsidies total catch Which specific management attributes affect stock status? comprehensiveness of stock assessments strength of fishing pressure limits level of enforcement

Merci beaucoup: 182 people or groups for completing expert surveys NCEAS SNAP working group for feedback Funding: David and Lucile Packard Foundation mmel@uw.edu

Overall country FMI value by respondent n = 191 survey responses

Residuals of logit(FMI value) FMI residuals after accounting for per-capita GDP M Residuals of logit(FMI value)

FMI n = 191 survey responses Research Management Enforcement Socio- economics FMI Stock status n = 191 survey responses

Stock status 101: biomass and fishing mortality relative to target reference points Overfished Overfishing F/FMSY What is the current status of US stocks? B/BMSY

Potential biomass, catch, and profit increases from Fisheries Management Index Potential biomass, catch, and profit increases from modelled fishery reforms 645 ‘stocks’ all country : species entities 4713 ‘stocks’ 397 actual stocks (RAM Legacy) 4312 FAO area : species entities 4 FAO SOFIA stocks pooled species by country (28 countries) pooled stocks by primary country subset of same 28 countries Melnychuk et al. in review Costello et al. 2016, PNAS

Fishery reform predicted changes vs. FMI % change, 2050 RBFM relative to today FMI Costello et al. 2016 PNAS / Melnychuk et al. in review

Policy evaluations rights-based fisheries management FMSY Business- as-usual Costello et al. 2016, PNAS

Fishery reform predicted changes vs. FMI % change, 2050 RBFM relative to 2050 BAU FMI Costello et al. 2016 PNAS / Melnychuk et al. in review