Bird Monitoring in the Gulf of Mexico

ISSUE: Lack baseline data per distribution and abundance for many bird species Lack large-scale, coordinated bird monitoring effort

Urgency: $$$,$$$,$$$ and Restoration Projects Moving at Rapid Pace nola.com fws.gov

How do we address these key issues? First Step…..Identify Objectives: based on values and data needs Status Assessment Which bird / group of birds to monitor? Which habitat(s)? What season – breeding, wintering, migration? Management Which management strategy to monitor? Which habitat(s)? What season – breeding, wintering, migration? System Dynamics Which system driver to monitor? Which habitat(s)? What season – breeding, wintering, migration?

Partners in Gulf of Mexico Bird Monitoring Working Group

Structured Decision Making Process PrOACT Problem framing Objectives Actions Consequences Trade-offs Hammond, J. S., R. L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa. 1999. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions. Broadway Books, New York, N.Y.

Underlying Principals Problem Statement: How do we develop a cost-effective bird monitoring strategy for the Gulf of Mexico that evaluates ongoing, chronic, and acute threats and conservation activities, maximizes learning, and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats with respect to management triggers and to evaluate new and emerging conservation activities? Decision Maker = SDM Group + suite of additional partners (also recognized that administrators and land managers may have different values per monitoring needs) Decision = What monitoring projects to include in the Gulf of Mexico Bird Monitoring Strategy?

Vision: Integrated Restoration and Management Conceptual Model Threats Hurricanes Contaminants Coastal Development Vision: Integrated Restoration and Management of the Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Conservation Planning Implementation Monitoring Goal: Maximize Usefulness of Monitoring Data to Inform and Facilitate Bird Conservation in GoM Bird Monitoring Strategy SDM Value Models Objectives Communication Data Management [Process Objectives] Survey Design SOPs

Pathway for Moving the Conceptual Model to Reality SDM Value Models: Frames Bird Monitoring Issues and Provides Context; Provides Insight per Values, Needs, and Priorities; Long-term Advocate for / Define Bird Monitoring Program Short-term Develop Monitoring Framework (Written Report that Documents the Underlying Decisions, Assumptions, Objectives, and Values of the SDM Effort) Inform and Influence ($$$,$$$,$$$) Develop and Implement New Surveys

Objectives Hierarchy for Bird Monitoring in Gulf of Mexico Goal: Maximize Usefulness of Bird Monitoring Data to Inform Conservation Actions in GoM Relevancy (60) Rigor (40) State of System (30) Management (15) Integration (15) Status Assessment (15) System Dynamics (15)

Status Assessment - Populations Maximize understanding of baseline, status and trend information for priority birds Wintering Breeding Migration Stratification Maximize number of priority species surveyed Maximize survey duration (longevity of data collection) Maximize the spatial scope of surveys Sub-Objective 0 = No priority species 1 = 1 priority species 2 = 2 priority species 3 = 3 priority species 4 = ≥4 priority species 1= 1 to 4 years 2= 5 to 10 years 3 = 11 to 15 years 4 = 16 to 20 years 5 = 20+ years 0= No part of the priority species range 1 = <25 % of the priority species range 2 = 25 to 49% of the priority species range 3 = 50 to 75% of the priority species range 4 = >75% of the priority species range Performance Metric Value Function

Status Assessment - Habitats Maximize understanding of baseline, status and trend information of primary habitats Stratification Pine Savanna Forested Wetland Marsh Beach-Dune Island Marine Maximize collection of habitat quantity data Maximize collection of habitat quality data Sub-Objective 0 = Does not provide information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage 1 = Provides information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage – 1-25% of Gulf) 2 = Provides information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage – (25-75% of Gulf) 3 = Provides information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage (>75% of Gulf) 0 = No veg or water data 1 = Veg or water data (1-25% of Gulf) 2 = Veg and water data (1-25% of Gulf) 3 = Veg or water data (25-75% of Gulf) 4 = Veg and water data (25-75% of Gulf) 5 = Veg or water data (>75% of Gulf) 6 = Veg and water data (>75% of Gulf) Performance Metric Value Function

Table to Assign Weights – Under Development   shorebirds wading birds Marsh-birds seabirds songbirds waterfowl raptors Beach-Dune Breeding 0.0079 Wintering Migration Pine Savanna Forested Wetlands Islands Marsh Blue-water

System Dynamics Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3 Maximize understanding of system dynamics with respect to birds and their habitats within the Gulf of Mexico Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3 % Uncertainties of hypothesis addressed % Uncertainties of hypothesis addressed % Uncertainties of hypothesis addressed The goal within this objective is to better articulate and understand the behavior of the Gulf of Mexico over time with respect to it’s ability to support healthy populations of birds. The working group is currently working to organize a meeting with experts to identify a list of system drivers and to articulate conceptual models per their impacts to birds.

Management Maximize the number of priority species addressed Maximize understanding of management actions on bird populations in Gulf of Mexico Maximize the number of priority species addressed Maximize the understanding of management action with greatest spatial applicability Maximize understanding of management actions with greatest uncertainty Sub-Objective Metric: Weighted number of pubs N*5 effect size vital rates N*1 evaluation of mgmt response Performance Metric Metric: Taxonomic Scope Metric: Spatial Scope/Policy Value Function

Rigor Maximize scientific rigor of all surveys conducted within the Gulf of Mexico Objectives & Hypotheses Survey Design Response Variable Effect Size & Power Analysis Statistical Analysis Inference Data Management Plan Sub-Objectives Budget Timeline Likelihood of Success

Rigor Examples: Maximize scientific rigor of all surveys conducted within the Gulf of Mexico Sub-Objective Objectives & Hypotheses Survey Design Effect Size & Power Analysis 0 = Not stated 1 = Effect generally stated 2 = Effect stated but not meaningful 3 = Effect well stated but no power analysis 4 = Effect well stated with power analysis 0 = Not stated or inappropriate 1 = Stated but poor fit 2 = Stated but untested 3 = Stated & good fit 0 = None Stated 1= Generally Stated 2 = Clearly Stated Performance Metric Value Function

Integration Broader Impacts Address Established Priorities Partners Maximize integration of objectives, partners, resources and standards across the Gulf of Mexico Broader Impacts Address Established Priorities Partners Data Sharing Policy Sub-Objectives Use Existing Classification Systems Improves Existing Maps Financial Match/Leverage Use Existing Protocols Use Existing Mapping Reference System Use Existing Data Repositories Use Existing Code Repositories

Integration Examples: Maximize integration of objectives, partners, resources and standards across the Gulf of Mexico Maximize implementation of surveys that address established priorities Maximize collaboration among partners Maximize financial match and leveraging among partners Sub-Objective 0 = None stated 1 = General reference & general priority 2 = Specific reference & single plan; general priority 3 = Specific reference & single plan; specific priority 4 = Specific reference & multi-plans; specific priority; 0 = No match 1 = 0-25% match 2 =25-50% match 3 = 50-100% match 4 = 100-150% match 5 = >150% match 0 = An individual submission 1 = 1 collaborating partner 2 = 2-5 collaborating partners 3 = >5 collaborating partners Performance Metric Value Function

Decision Support Tool: Use of Value Models to Conduct Trade-off Analysis

Prototype List of Alternatives (Projects) – Means Objectives Hypothetical List of Projects Prototype Vers. 1.0

Alternatives Scored Against Performance Metrics -- Consequence Table -- Raw Scores   Management effects Antro. Threats Ecol. Var. Monitoring project #hypoth relevance to actions #States App of variable #species relevance to impacts Variation source Relevance Cost Salinization BACI (1 site, 6 yr, 5 sp) 1 5 9 3 750,000 Stewardship/predator control 2 4 2,000,000 Oil contamination 7 1,000,000 Marshbird productivity Dredge on Barrier Islands 15 125,000 Dredge on Barrier Islands, replicated 500,000 Coastal devel. on least terns Drought on mottled ducks 10 2,500,000 Hurricane impacts 3,000,000 Marsh creation 8 Human disturbance on beaches 650,000 Normalized Scores & Weighted Values (assigned weights)   Monitoring project #hypoth relevance to actions #States App of variable #species relevance to impacts Variation source Relevance Value Salinization BACI (1 site, 6 yr, 5 sp) 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.71 Stewardship/predator control 0.02 0.72 Oil contamination 0.00 0.26 Marshbird productivity 0.01 0.68 Dredge on Barrier Islands Dredge on Barrier Islands, replicated 0.73 Coastal devel. on least terns 0.32 Drought on mottled ducks 0.05 0.55 Hurricane impacts 0.19 Marsh creation 0.07 0.66 Human disturbance on beaches 0.48 Prototype Vers. 2.0

Currently Exploring other Portfolio Constraints: Taxa, Habitat, Fundamental Objective, etc. Balanced Portfolio Prototype Vers. 2.0

Decision Making – Which Portfolio to Select? Pareto Efficiency Frontier – Cost/Benefit Ratio Red Dots = Random Portfolios Prototype Vers. 2.0

Pathway for Moving the Conceptual Model to Reality Which bird / group of birds to monitor? Which habitat(s)? What season – breeding, wintering, migration? Which management strategy to monitor? Which system driver to monitor? SDM Value Models: Frames Bird Monitoring Issues and Provides Context; Provides Insight per Values, Needs, and Priorities; Trade-Off Analysis: Decision Support Tool for Funding Agencies Which (portfolio) projects to fund?

Pathway for Moving the Conceptual Model to Reality SDM Value Models: Frames Bird Monitoring Issues and Provides Context; Provides Insight per Values, Needs, and Priorities; Long-term Advocate for / Define Bird Monitoring Program Short-term Develop Monitoring Framework (Written Report that Documents the Underlying Decisions, Assumptions, Objectives, and Values of the SDM Effort) Inform and Influence ($$$,$$$,$$$) Develop and Implement New Surveys

Next Steps: Clean-up and Document Value Models Solicit Review and Input Draft a “Bird Monitoring Vision Document” Finalize Value Models and Trade-Off Analysis Tool Work with Partners to Inform Decision Makers of Bird Monitoring Values & Needs (to include a comprehensive bird monitoring Program Work with Partners to Develop and Implement Surveys to Achieve Bird Monitoring Needs