Perceived Risk and Anthropogenic Environmental Change Melissa Finucane East-West Center Alumni Conference July 5, 2010

Problem Statement What socio-cultural and psychological factors influence perceptions of risk?

Practical Importance To articulate gaps between different stakeholder views, values, and decision processes To facilitate risk debates and communications To improve decision processes and outcomes To develop risk management strategies that have a sense of ownership and improve disease management

Theoretical Importance: Sound Models Accurately describe underlying processes Allow for and explain individual and group differences Generalize across risk domains Predict how decision-maker, task, and context characteristics influence risk perceptions and behavioral responses

Empirical Research on the Perceived Risk of HPAI Most research done in Western countries Focus on AI in humans (rather than poultry) Studies in Asia show perceived risk correlated with: Gender (women perceive more risk) Age (older people perceive more risk) Efficacy (greater ability to protect related to lower perceived risk) Control (higher perceived personal control related to lower PR) Trust in public authorities Protective behavior more likely with: Higher education Urban living Knowledge of HPAI Owning poultry

Perceptions of HPAI Risk in Poultry Example studies: Thailand (urban, suburban, rural), Takeuchi (2006) Laos (urban, semi-urban, rural), Barennes et al. (2007) Cambodia (rural), Ly et al. (2007) Findings Limited awareness Limited reporting Support for reporting Optimistic bias Dead poultry buried, eaten, thrown away, used as feed, sold/given away

Phase II: Risk Perception Hypotheses H0: Perceived risk not related to setting. H1a: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la Kuznets: highest in transitional setting). H1b: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la risk society: highest in most modern setting) because feelings of trust and control are eroded. H2: A significant amount of setting-related RP variance can be accounted for by socio-ecological and socio-psychological (efficacy, affect, worldviews, etc) factors

Focus Groups, Bac Ninh Province, May 2010 N=43 village leaders, small farmers, large operators Diverse mental models of disease transmission Awareness of risk factors Fears of impact on livelihoods Awareness of role of transition Differences in perceived effectiveness of vaccinations

Phase II: Household Survey In each of 4 agroecological zones in the North, sample 3 communes in each stage of transition (36 communes), limited to communes where birds have died from AI In each commune, randomly choose 30 households to administer a survey to heads of households (1080 total respondents). Items measuring perceived risk and related constructs: Perceived risk Protective behaviors Efficacy Knowledge Worldviews, values, trust