Dust, vapour & cloud in greenhouse Earth

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Presentation transcript:

Dust, vapour & cloud in greenhouse Earth Prof. Richard P. Allan r.p.allan@reading.ac.uk @rpallanuk Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Homage to Harries event, Imperial College, 24th May 2017

Incredibly knowledgeable and approachable – maybe I’d have been overawed if I spotted the number of Nature papers! Readily gobbled up by a new PhD student working on Earth’s energy balance!

“Please re-write this paragraph, preferably in English this time” Role of far infrared in controlling how much water vapour amplifies climate change Far infrared outgoing radiation highly sensitive to humidity changes in dry regions e.g. Sinha & Harries (1997) dOLR/dRH (Wm-2/%) Allan et al. (1999) QJRMetS “Please re-write this paragraph, preferably in English this time” 0 20 MEAN RH (%) 80 StDev(HIRS12): Geer et al. (1999) J. Clim

Exploiting GERB to improve Met Office forecast model physics All-sky Clear-sky Radiative biases in Met Office global NWP model Mineral dust Convective outflow Shortwave Longwave Exploiting GERB to improve Met Office forecast model physics Surface albedo Marine stratocumulus Convective cloud Futyan et al. (2004 J Clim, 2005 GRL); Harries et al. (2005) BAMS; Allan et al (2007) QJRMS

Combining surface data with GERB uncovers radiative impact of major Saharan dust storm Advances in understanding impact on LW and SW absorption by mineral dust Slingo et al. (2006) GRL Atmospheric solar absorption

Public engagement If only John was here…

Fundamental timescales of Earth’s energy budget Growth & decay time constants Fundamental timescales of Earth’s energy budget 6-8 months 3-5 m 2-4 m 9-11 months “Separating rapid adjustments to radiative forcings from the responses of the climate system involving fast and slow feedbacks is a powerful emerging diagnostic of the Earth system” (upper) water vapour (lower) (net) Radiative Flux (LW, SW) 6-8 m 23-31 months 2-3 m 9-13 months Harries & Futyan (2006) GRL Quote by R. Allan, famous scientist, 24 May 2017

Earth’s global surface temperature & energy imbalance variability since the 1980s TEMPERATURE anomaly (degC) 2.8 1.8 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 -2.2 ENERGY BUDGET anomaly (Wm-2) Energy imbalance (Wm-2) Based on Allan et al. 2014 GRL, after Harries & Belotti (2010) J. Clim

Outlook: and the work goes on… Timescales of climate response and change What determines feedbacks on internal variability and are they distinct to forced response? What are the fundamental time-scales of climate system components? e.g. Harries & Futyan (2005) Stability of the Earth's radiative energy balance…, GRL, 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL027457. Energy budget and hydrological cycle Can heterogeneous net zero radiative forcing cause responses in global temperature via atmosphere/ocean dynamical responses? e.g. Sinha & Harries (1997) Possible change in climate parameters with zero net radiative forcing, GRL, 24, doi:10.1029/95GL01891 How does cirrus FIR effect influence climate feedbacks? Cox, Harries, et al.(2010) Measurement/simulation of mid/far infrared spectra in the presence of cirrus, QJRMS, 136, doi:10.1002/qj.596

Changes in global water cycle WATER VAPOUR anomaly (%) PRECIPITATION anomaly (%)