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KRUGMAN’S Economics for AP® S E C O N D E D I T I O N

Section 8 Module 45

What You Will Learn in this Module Use macroeconomic models to conduct policy analysis Improve your approach to free-response macroeconomic questions Section 8 | Module 45

A Structure for Macroeconomic Analysis Most macroeconomic problems have the following components: A starting point A pivotal event Initial effects of the event Secondary and long-run effects of the event How will the Fed’s monetary policy change nominal interest rates? Section 8 | Module 45

A Structure for Macroeconomic Analysis For example: Assume the U.S. economy is currently operating at an aggregate output level above potential output. Draw a correctly labeled graph showing aggregate demand, short-run supply, long-run aggregate supply, equilibrium output, and the aggregate price level. Now assume that the Federal Reserve conducts contractionary monetary policy. Identify the open-market operation the Fed would conduct, and draw a correctly labeled graph of the money market to show the effect of the monetary policy on the nominal interest rate. Section 8 | Module 45

A Structure for Macroeconomic Analysis Show and explain how the Fed’s actions will affect equilibrium in the aggregate demand and supply graph you drew previously. Indicate the new aggregate price level on your graph. Assume Canada is the largest trading partner of the United States. Draw a correctly labeled graph of the foreign exchange market for the U.S. dollar showing how the change in the aggregate price level you indicate on your graph above will affect the foreign exchange market. What will happen to the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar? How will the Federal Reserve’s contractionary monetary policy affect the real interest rate in the United States? Explain. Section 8 | Module 45

The Starting Point Assume the U.S. economy is currently operating at an aggregate output level above potential output. Draw a correctly labeled graph showing aggregate demand, short-run supply, long-run aggregate supply, equilibrium output, and the aggregate price level. Section 8 | Module 45

Analysis Starting Points Figure caption: Figure 45.1. Panels (a, (b), and © represent the three basic starting points for analysis using the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model. Section 8 | Module 45

Analysis Starting Points Figure caption: Figure 45.1. Panels (a, (b), and © represent the three basic starting points for analysis using the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model. Section 8 | Module 45

The Balance of Payments Figure caption: Figure 45.1. Panels (a, (b), and © represent the three basic starting points for analysis using the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model. Section 8 | Module 45

The Pivotal Event Now assume that the Federal Reserve conducts contractionary monetary policy. Section 8 | Module 45

The Pivotal Event Section 8 | Module 45

The Pivotal Event Section 8 | Module 45

The Pivotal Event Section 8 | Module 45

The Pivotal Event Section 8 | Module 45

The Pivotal Event Section 8 | Module 45

The Initial Effect of the Event Show and explain how the Fed’s actions will affect equilibrium. Section 8 | Module 45

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Close Output Gaps Figure Caption: Figure 45.2. By shifting the aggregate demand curve, monetary and fiscal policy can close output gaps in the economy as shown in panel (a) for a recessionary gap and panel (b) for an inflationary gap. Section 8 | Module 45

Secondary and Long-Run Effects of the Event Assume Canada is the largest trading partner of the United States. What will happen to the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar? How will the Federal Reserve’s contractionary monetary policy affect the real interest rate in the United States? Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Identify the open-market operation the Fed would conduct The Fed would sell U.S. Treasury securities (bonds, bills, or notes). Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Draw a correctly labeled graph of the money market to show the effect of the monetary policy on the nominal interest rate. Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Show and explain how the Fed’s actions will affect equilibrium in the aggregate demand and supply graph you drew previously. Indicate the new aggregate price level on your graph. A higher interest rate will lead to decreased investment and consumer spending, decreasing aggregate demand. The equilibrium price level and real GDP will fall. Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Draw a correctly labeled graph of the foreign exchange market for the U.S. dollar showing how the change in the aggregate price level you indicate on your graph above will affect the foreign exchange market. The decrease in the U.S. price level will make U.S. exports relatively inexpensive for Canadians to purchase and lead to an increase in demand for U.S. dollars with which to purchase those exports. Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario Section 8 | Module 45

Analyzing Our Scenario What will happen to the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar? The U.S. dollar will appreciate. How will the Federal Reserve’s contractionary monetary policy affect the real interest rate in the United States? Explain. There will be no effect on the real interest rate in the long run because, due to the neutrality of money, changes in the money supply do not affect values in the long run. Section 8 | Module 45

Summary Most macroeconomic problems have the following components: A starting point A pivotal event Initial effects of the event Secondary and long-run effects of the event We can use the basic macroeconomic models to analyze scenarios and evaluate policy recommendations. Section 8 | Module 45