Can china’s miraculous economic growth continue?

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Presentation transcript:

Can china’s miraculous economic growth continue? Aaron Steele

How Did They Get Where They Are? Multi Path Approach Low Value to High Value Added Industries Upgrading within Industries Agricultural to Industrial Economy Massive expansion of infrastructure. Electronic and Automotive Industries. Increased productivity in Agriculture. Pg. 300

Will Their Growth Continue? Per Capita Income Growth Growth in Labor Productivity Manufacturing Structural Change Demand Aggregates Human Capital Development China needs to continue to undergo structural change into high value added industries, such as automotives, pharmaceuticals, and machinery and equipment.

Per Capita Income Growth: Growth of GDP per capita income has been steadier than Japan or USA since 1980, but significantly lower. Growth trajectory suggests it could take shorter time to become developed than it took for other two countries. – Capacity of China to manage the income catch up with USA and Japan will depend on its success in achieving structural change to higher value-added activities without seriously undermining its external balance of payments and debt service balances against its international reserves.

Growth in Labor Productivity & Manufacturing Structural Change: China recorded the largest value-added in the world in 10 industries in 2008. Increase in gross output and real wages.

Human Capital Development: R&D researchers in China rose from 548,000 in 1996 to 1,423,000 in 2007. R&D expenditure rose from .57% in 1996 to 1.44% in 2007. Development of human capital leaves China in good stead to quicken structural change into high value-added activities through technological deepening.

What Challenges Do They Face? Power and Water Supply Political Instability Economic Inequality Difficult to sustain requisite expansion in power and water supply and reverse growing problems of pollution and economic inequality. Slower growing western province poses potentially dangerous political problems. Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong vs. Western China