Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop The World Bank experience from the Western Balkan countries Vienna, Austria, May 11-12, 2016 Igor Palandžić Water Resources Specialist Water Global Practice World Bank

Climate Change and Integrated Water Resource Management World Bank Group Technical Paper, 2016 - High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy: The impacts of climate change will be channeled primarily through the water cycle. This will jeopardize growth prospects in the regions worst affected and in some of the poorest countries. Smart policies that induce water-use efficiency, align incentives across regional and trading partners, and invest in adaptive technologies can go a long way toward reducing or eliminating these negative effects. September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin Increase climate- resilience of sector investments. Enhance the discussion and capacity of stakeholders and decision makers on climate change adaptation. Jointly with stakeholders develop approaches to introduce climate change adaption in water resources management and planning. September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin International Sava River Basin Commission Slovenia Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Hydrologic Trends Meteorological Trends Future Trends from GCM/RCMs Simulated Future Climate Scenarios based on trends and GCMs Hydrologic Model Agriculture Hydropower Flood Control Navigation Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin (WATCAP) Economic Hydrologic simulation through the model to provide scenario development for sector guidance notes September 18, 2018

Climate Change and Integrated Water Resource Management Historical climate trends : Analysis of the historical climate data generally shows warming trends in temperature, highly variable precipitation patterns, and a changing hydrology. Mean temperature is rising throughout the SRB. Long-term trends in precipitation are small or negligible, but a long-term oscillation in precipitation exists and produces a sequence of short-term trends with opposite directions. Seasonal patterns of precipitation and temperature also shows changes over time, with variations in different seasons. Evaporation and evapotranspiration show increasing trends. River discharge is declining significantly even though precipitation is declining little or not at all. September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin Climate modeling and future climate scenarios The future climate scenarios resulting from chains of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) were analyzed on a seasonal and annual basis for the two future periods outlined in the report: 2011–40 and 2041–70. All five GCM/RCM models considered in the study showed a temperature increase across the SRB, with larger values apparent for 2041–70. Precipitation change is, however, more complex. Although it shows only a slight decrease on the annual level, seasonal changes are more pronounced. Despite a lot of spatial variation, precipitation generally shows an increase during the winter and a decrease for the summer months. The summer precipitation deficit is more pronounced for 2041–70 than for 2011–40. September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin Hydrologic simulations mean flows - increase in runoff in the winter season, as a result of an increase in precipitation and a significant rise in temperatures. low flows - great variation among the climate models but on average, Qmm80 is not likely to change in the near future, while a significant decrease could be expected in the distant future downstream of Sisak in Croatia September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin Hydrologic simulations flood flows - the hydrologic projections plainly indicate that floods will increase in the future due to climate change. The increase was shown to be greater for 100-year floods than for the 20-year events, thus suggesting an overall increase of the flood risk. The greatest increase in floods is expected in the head part of the SRB, that is, in Slovenia (the Čatež hydrologic station) and in the main right tributaries (Kupa, Una, and Bosna). By the end of the 21st century, the 100-year floods along the Sava River will increase September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin Navigation River information systems Dredging, more river transport in high-flow season Flood Flood forecasting systems and management plans (warning, evacuation, etc.) More flood retention, flood plain management, city protection. Hydropower/Storage Invest in upstream retention with hydropower as additional benefit. No hydropower development in ecologically sensitive zones. General: Improve data collection, hydrological studies, modeling Regional cooperation, data exchange, joint forecasting and modeling Agriculture: Invest in water retention and irrigation Use crop varieties that are less prone to the impact of droughts Recomandations Final result was developing the guidance notes on the climate change adaptation for various water sub-sectors, very useful for the countries in setting their future climate adaptation policy, as well as for the hydrological model of the Sava River Basin, which has recently been distributed to relevant national institutions (i.e. national hydro-meteorological services and water agencies) of the countries, for their use September 18, 2018

Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin The recommendations are to be implemented irrespective of climate change adaption - planning horizons of 10-30 years max. Climate change adaptation in the water sector starts with establishing integrated water resources management. Sector investments are to be accelerated, especially in flood management and protection. Data, data, data, and models to constantly assess the changing uncertainties Water sector climate adaptation plans need to be reassessed and updated regularly Concluding remarks September 18, 2018

The World Bank Activities in the region Joint Flood Management in Sava River Basin (WBIF - EUR 2 million) GEF/SCCF Drina River Basin Management Project (USD 8.7 million) Support  WRM in Drina River Basin (WBIF - EUR 2 million) Drina Flood Protection Project for B&H (USD 24 million IDA Credit) BiH Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 100 million IBRD/IDA) Serbia Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 299 million IBRD/IDA) Concluding remarks September 18, 2018

Regional Sava River Joint Flood Management Programme The objective is to improve the quality and effectiveness of the joint flood management and forecasting capacities in the Sava River. The three major expected outcomes of the project are: Operational flood forecasting and early warning system with installations in the riparian Sava River Basin countries Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia. Well trained staff in each of Riparian Countries. Recommendations on future improvements of the forecasting system Two components Flood Risk Management Plan for the Sava River Basin, including Programme of Measures Flood forecasting and warning system for the Sava River Basin Needs for harmonized and coordinated regional approach to flood risk management and flood forecasting and warning system in the Sava River Basin. WB is supporting this activity through a WBIF grant together with the International Sava River Basin Commission (ISRBC) and five riparian countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. Technical Assistance for the implementation of an integrated flood and drought forecasting system and a system for the dissemination of warnings, covering the complete Sava River Basin. The three major expected outcomes of the project are: Operational flood forecasting and early warning system with installations in the riparian Sava River Basin countries Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia. Well trained staff in each of Riparian Countries. Recommendations on future improvements of the forecasting system. September 18, 2018

Drina River Basin Management Project The objective of the Project is to improve mechanisms and capacity of the Project Countries to plan and manage the transboundary Drina river basin, incorporating climate change adaptation. Project is expected to start by the end of 2016 and will include: Component 1: Multi-State Cooperation in Transboundary DRB Management Component 2: Pilot Investments for Integrated DRB Management Including Flood and Drought Management and Climate Change Resilience Development of an agreed SAP mainstreaming transboundary IWRM and climate change adaptation in national planning Preparation of a DRB SAP Hydraulic and hydrologic model for the DRB with reservoir operation optimization Preparation of water resources and basin study Preparation of study for analyses of the pollution of DRB DRB Strengthening capacity for climate change resilience Strengthening of the DRB riparian countries HMS Develop protocols to improve data compatibility among the DRB countries Public Awareness Program Small Grants Program Improvement of the flood forecasting and early warning system at regional level Pilot investments for basin climate change resilience and flood management Works/ infrastructure and equipment to pilot climate change resilience approaches and designs September 18, 2018

The main outcomes of the project are: WBIF Regional Support for Water Resources Management in Drina River Basin The overall objective of Drina River Basin Project is to support more effective water resources management in Drina river basin with a special focus on flood and drought mitigation, and hydropower and environmental management, based on “good practices”. This will involve support to water management authorities in riparian countries in preparation of the Investment Prioritization Framework for the Drina Basin. The main outcomes of the project are: Effective application of EU water framework directive (WFD) More effective data collection and analysis, Enhanced dialogue and coordination in the DRB, and Better decision-making and management in the DRB September 18, 2018

Drina Flood Protection Project for B&H (USD 24 million IDA Credit) BiH Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 100 million IBRD/IDA) Serbia Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 299 million IBRD/IDA) September 18, 2018

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Concluding remarks September 18, 2018