Climate Trends in the Philippines ² Ppresented by: THelma A. Cinco 1

PAGASA-DOST PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider MISSION: To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products and services to promote the people’s safety and well- being & contribute to national development Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977 The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations. 2

PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment NORTHERN LUZON (Tuguegarao) MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro) VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu) NCR (Quezon City) SOUTHERN LUZON (Legaspi) 5 Regional Centers 58 Synoptic stations 23 Agromet stations 80 Climat/Rain stations AWS 10M wind mast 76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI) ARG 381 total 6 Upper air stations 10 Doppler radars (2 under construction) 2 Marine buoys 5 Telemetered major river basins 3 Satellite receivers 3

Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfall ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?

Philippines mean temperature Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values An increase of 0.65°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

Maximum & Minimum Temperature Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008) Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days). Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008) Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile Cool Days Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile Cold nights

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Classification of Tropical Cyclones 10/13/15 Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to 63 kph; Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from 64 to 118 kph; Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is greater than 118 kph.

Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1°x1° (1948-2010) 10/13/15 Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1°x1° (1948-2010) Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: (1948-2010) s. s. Visited by an average 19 to 20 Tropical cyclones EVERY YEAR Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010 *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: 1951-2010 In order for us to see the changes we map the frequency of tropical cyclones passing thru the 1 lat x 1 longitude degree per decade. The maps shows a multi decadal variabiliTyphoon. During the period 1951-1960,1961-1970 the maximum area of TC activiTyphoon is in the eastern part of the country, and then shifted in the northern Luzon in 1971-1980, and become lesser from 1991-2000 and 2001 to 2010 *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines. 15

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines The maps shows the frequency of land falling/crossing TC’s per decade. During the earlier decades 1951-1960, 1961-1970, 1981-1990 there are more number in the northern Luzon and becomes alternating onwards. Based from the trends, there will be more number of TC’s in northern Luzon by 2011-2020. *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines. 16

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above Neutral year El Niño year La Niña year

Monthly frequency of T. C Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period: 1948-2010

Tropical cyclone statistics in PH DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010 TC NAME Date of Occurrence Total damage in Billion PhP TY_PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 27.296722 TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000 TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 – 23, 2008 13.500000 TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 11.500000 TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 – 27, 2009 10.952198 TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000 DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties > 300 TC NAME Date of Occurrence Casualties TS Uring * Nov 1-6, 1991 5101 TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15-17, 2011 1268 TY Nitang Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 1029 TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995 TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991 TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936 Increasing cost of Damage *The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods. MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC TC NAME Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm) Date of Occurrence TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001 TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998 TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967 TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991 TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980 MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC TC NAME Maximum Wind (kph) Date of Occurrence TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006 TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998 TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981 TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970 TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974 TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987 19

Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm 20

Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL Legend: Severe drought impacts Drought impacts with major losses Moderate drought impacts Near normal to above normal condition Way above normal condition Potential for flood damage Severe flood damage RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years 22

Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution Neutral El Niño La Niña Wetter in the western part Wetter in the eastern part 23

Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type

Climate Trends in Manila

An increase of 2.21 °C from 1901-2010 (110 years) Manila An increase of 2.21 °C from 1901-2010 (110 years)

Manila

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Manila

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