Bahram Khazaei, Hector Bravo, and Harvey Bootsma

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Presentation transcript:

Bahram Khazaei, Hector Bravo, and Harvey Bootsma MODELING THE TRANSPORT AND FATE OF PHOSPHORUS FROM A POINT SOURCE IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONE Bahram Khazaei, Hector Bravo, and Harvey Bootsma Poster Competition University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee April 8, 2017

Research Motivation & Objectives Nutrient loading into Lake Michigan can produce: algal blooms, hypoxia, beach closures, clogging of water intakes, and reduced water quality

Materials & Methods A 3D nested model were applied to determine the influence of MMSD SSWWTP phosphorus loading: the coastal area of interest is simulated by the nested model, a grid size of 100m, 120x445 cells in the cross- shore and alongshore directions, and 20 equally-spaced sigma layers simulations were focused on the time of year for Cladophora growth, detachment, and shoreline fouling (June-October)

Materials & Methods The 3D model consists of a hydrodynamic model linked with a biogeochemical model: hydrodynamic component: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Lake Michigan model of the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) biogeochemical component: a mussel model, a Cladophora model, and a sediment dynamics model are linked

Results: DP and PP Comparison Loading patterns were different in 2013 and 2015, especially in July and September. This can be related to different: rainfall patterns, water consumption, or wastewater treatment practices MMSD Outfall Location

Results: DP and PP Comparison Simulations of DP and PP showed reasonably good agreement with measurements DP shows more fluctuations and variability in 2015 PP showed a smaller range of variation than that of DP, however, more frequent spikes of concentration in 2013 were observed, due to resuspension events: It can be explained by the meteorological variability of the study area, with stronger winds in 2013 Atwater Station: DP Atwater Station: PP

Atwater Station: Cladophora Atwater Station: Temperature Results: Cladophora Seasonal trends in Cladophora biomass were similar in 2013 and 2015, however, the biomass is significantly higher in 2015. The reasons could be: interaction with higher DP concentration in water, and reduced temperature due to climate variability Atwater Station: Cladophora Atwater Station: Temperature

Results: Assimilative Capacity Assimilative Capacity: difference between the total phosphorus target of 7 µg/L and the lake background concentration Limit loading rate: the loading rate that, when diluted over the control volume reaches the assimilative capacity, on average over the averaging period A process-based control volume can be defined using the maps of spatial distribution of total phosphorus criterion exceedance, with contour lines of percentage of time that the criterion is exceeded during the summer season Total volumes and areas of lake’s water affected by TP higher than 7 μg/L more than 25% of the time

Results: Footprints of exceedance of TP target concentration 2013 2015

This is what we are trying to accomplish! Summary Simulations are reasonably in good agreement with measurements Different loading patterns in 2013 and 2015 could be explained by climate variability and human interventions DP shows more variability in 2015 due to algal bloom PP showed spikes of concentration in 2013 were observed, due to frequent resuspension events, comes from meteorological variability Cladophora biomass increased in 2015 due to higher DP concentration in water, and climate variability This is what we are trying to accomplish! Questions?