Barriers to Reasoning Rationally

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Presentation transcript:

Barriers to Reasoning Rationally Or…why do we do dumb things

Exaggerating the improbable We are influenced by the availability heuristic—the tendency to judge the probability of an event by how easy it is to think of examples or instances.

Take a plane or a car?

Avoid or minimize risk and losses Avoiding loss Avoid or minimize risk and losses

Risky!!

Confirmation bias We pay attention to information that confirms what we believe while ignoring information that opposes our beliefs

Confirmation bias The New Deal and Unemployment

Mindset of mental set Try to solve new problems using procedures that worked before on a similar problem

Mindset of patterns Tendency to find patterns in events, even though these patterns are just random noise.

Such as a supposed link between immunizations and autism

Believing that an outcome was predictable all along Hindsight bias Believing that an outcome was predictable all along

The need for cognitive consistency Cognitive dissonance is a state of tension that occurs when a person simultaneously holds two cognitions that are psychologically inconsistent Or holds a belief that is inconsistent with the person’s behavior

People are motivated to reduce dissonance Changing a belief Changing a behavior Rationalizing