Patterns and Trends in UK higher education AARON PORTER Director of Insights @AaronPorter @HotcoursesGroup

Policy Environment - Headlines Higher education is barely out of the news. But most of it isn’t great: Vice Chancellor pay, is university worth it, student and graduate debt. Increased focus on tuition fees (Corybn pledge to scrap, May to freeze at £9250 & increase in repayment threshold to £25k) Introduction of the Teaching Excellence Framework. Sector are still lukewarm, still waiting to see if it will impact on student demand. The early intelligence from Hotcourses is no shift from domestic students (as per UCAS summer data), but some shifts in international behaviour. Global events are having an impact on pattern of international student distribution (notably Trump, Brexit and Trudeau).

http://www. universitiesuk. ac http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/facts-and-stats/data-and-analysis/Documents/patterns-and-trends-2017.pdf

Prospective student trends & insight

TEF, Brexit, Trump & Tredeau

TEF – early signs

Searches from UK and India for TEF ranked institutions (% change) TEF impact – who cares? Searches from UK and India for TEF ranked institutions (% change) July – Oct 2016 vs July – Oct 2017 UK India UK India UK India Very little impact on UK students. Lots of ways we can slice and dice the data of course.

UCAS EU applications dropped by 5% Brexit impact - EU demand One year on from the EU Referendum, how can we quantify the impact of the leave vote? UK lost 6.5% European market share. US lost 4% Aus lost 1.4% Canada up 1.4% Ireland up 1.1%   Other up 8.9% almost 9% UCAS EU applications dropped by 5%

EU funding, offsets UK decline Impact of UK gov EU funding announcement on study European student searches. Real-time data shows positive policy helping UK offset decline in EU demand UK has a spike of 2.3%. Weak £. Getting in while we’re still part of EU. US 0.6%. Don’t want to pay intl fees

Trump effect on Middle East How has the US Presidential vote impacted Middle Eastern study choices? IDP seeing record numbers of IELTS tests for Canada

Trump’s travel ban - Iran How did Trump’s travel ban impact Iranian study choices? Executive Order 13769 These things change fast, their perceptions change fast, you need to react quickly

India – the Canada story Canada success story is prominent in Indian searches. The UK also fares well. Interesting shifts in India towards Canada and the UK. U of Toronto reported a 57% jump in applications from students from India, BBC News. A lot of North India interest has gone to Canada for historical reasons (prev generation migration)

India – the Canada story Canada has jumped from 5th most popular to the most popular study destination. Demand from India for destinations (market share) 12 months prior to and after 1 Nov 2017 Rank 1 Nov 2015-31 Oct 2016 1 Nov 2016-31 Oct 2017 1 USA 27.8% Canada 23.0% 2 Australia 17.7% 19.8% 3 UK 13.2% 15.6% 4 Singapore 10.9% 13.5% 5 10.3% 8.1% 6 New Zealand 9.1% 7.8% 7 Malaysia 5.0% 3.3% 8 Ireland 2.0% 2.7% 9 Netherlands 1.4% 1.7% 10 Other 2.6% 4.5%

India – regional diversification Regional shifts in India are occurring. Delhi in particular has seen big drops. 2015-16 2016-17 Our Insights partners are using this to target Tier 2 and 3 cities

Any questions? Aaron.porter@hotcourses.com