The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast Presented at ASPRS/MAPPS Conference October, 2001 Ron Rabin, Lockheed Martin, Stennis Space Center (Support to Earth Science Applications Division)

Topics Review Phase I - Industry Baseline Background Results Phase II - User Needs/Requirements Status Interview Results Preliminary Survey Results 9/18/20189/18/2018

Background In August 1999, ASPRS and NASA's Earth Science Applications Division (ESAD) (nee CRSP) Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) entered into a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), combining resources and expertise to: Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Develop a 10-Year RSI market forecast Provide improved information for decision makers Develop attendant processes Leave behind capability for ASPRS 9/18/20189/18/2018

Forecast Plan Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002) Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004) Project Plan 9/18/20189/18/2018

Remote Sensing Industry Definition Platforms & Sensors Data Collection Phase I Data Processing Support Elements Industry Intermediaries Hardware Software Etc. Business Segments VARs Consultants Etc. End-User Phase II 9/18/20189/18/2018

Forecast Framework Customer Segments Business Segments Market Segments Data Collection Data Processing Support Elements Intermediaries Environmental Global Security National/ Transportation Agriculture Civil Gov’t Exploration/ Resources Forestry Insurance Mapping Real Estate Telecomms Utilities Entertainment/ Media Commercial Government Customer Segments Academia Business Segments Market Segments 9/18/20189/18/2018

Forecast Participants NASA NOAA USGS Space Imaging Kodak SPOT EarthData PAR Autometrics Spencer-Gross American Forests RAND Pictometry Leading Edge Lockheed Martin Geomatics Eaglescan Landcare Avn. University of Arizona University of Utah University of Missouri RIT ASPRS NSGIC MAPPS 9/18/20189/18/2018

Forecast Process $ Focus Group Survey Interview Literature Search Findings Conclusions $ Time Forecast $ 20% 21% 17% Focus Group Survey Interview Literature Search ANALYSIS 9/18/20189/18/2018

Data Collection to Date Phase I Interviews: 36 (Commercial) Surveys: 438 (Commercial - 227, Government - 149, Academia - 62) “Closed Envelope”: 40+ (Commercial, Senior level) Phase II Interviews 134 (Managers, Users, SLT Government) Focus Groups 5 (NSGIC, Local GIS, ASPRS/MAPPS, URISA, Western Foresters) Surveys > 530+ and counting 9/18/20189/18/2018

Respondent Profile * Respondents could answer more than once. Respondents are predominantly middle/upper management level with a representative mix of technical and non-technical 9/18/20189/18/2018

Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010 The major objective of Phase I of the Market Forecast was to Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry Market. One important dimension of this baseline is Annual Sales. There are, of course, many Remote Sensing Industry sales estimates available. We opted to collect our own data and based on the Team’s collective experience do our own analysis. However, we did use other estimates found in our Literature Search as a “sanity check”. By survey, we asked the sample group to estimate the sales of their companies in the two years past (1998, 1999), the current year (2000), the next year (2001) and two out-years (2005 and 2010). This translated into a solid base of two years of recent history; a current year that was about one-half over at the time of the survey and,therefore, also fairly solid; and, finally, a near-term (5-year) and a far-term (10-year) estimate. The results are shown in this chart. Our “sanity check” (including a separate closed envelope survey of Industry Presidents and CEOs) revealed that these estimates compared favorably with those made by other market experts. We used these results to complete our next task of developing a 10-year Industry Forecast. 9/18/20189/18/2018

Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010 Forecast Baseline Based on calculating the average annual growth rate from 1998-2000 (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years 9/18/20189/18/2018

Market Segment as % of Sales CY 2000 National/Global Security 41% Mapping 17% Civil Government 15% Transportation 9% Environmental 4% Utilities 4% Agriculture 2% Exploration/Resources 2% Forestry 2% Telecommunications 2% Entertainment/Media <1% Insurance <1% Real Estate <1% Other <1% % of Sales Slide 23 9/18/20189/18/2018

Commercial Company Size While we don’t know how many Respondents were from the same Company, we do know that ... This is a fragmented Industry Smaller Companies are in the Majority About 20% of Respondents estimated at 10 or less employees About 55% of Respondents estimated at under 100 employees (% < 50 ?) Over 80% of Respondents estimated at under 500 employees 9/18/20189/18/2018

Most Important Mission by Level of Government Federal level generally has across the board interest States appear to be focused more on Natural Resource Management and Utilities Only the Federal Government sees Technology Development as an Important Mission 9/18/20189/18/2018

Most Active RS Markets/Applications/Activities This table depicts what the data reveals to be the most important Remote Sensing Markets/Applications/Activities within the major Market Sectors (Commercial, Academic, Government) and provides,through analysis, insight into what aspects seem to be important across the Sectors. Each of the three Sectors investigated has its own culture and language. In order to summarize results across Sectors, this chart assumes that Sector-specific terms describe/identify concepts or ideas that are closely related to similar concepts or ideas in other Sector cultures, but which are described/identified by other terms. We have termed these cross-Sector concepts or ideas “generic similarities”. The Columns of the chart list the most active Market Segments, Mission Areas, Degrees granted, etc. by Market Sector. For example: “Mapping” is one of the group of “Market Segments” investigated in the Commercial Sector. It was, as can be seen in columns 1, 5 and 6 of the chart, considered an important factor in various aspects of the Market Segments of the Commercial Sector. “Mapping” is also seen as the most important Mission (column 2), by Federal Government respondents. “Geography” is at the top of the list in degrees granted in the Academic Sector (column 3) and most difficult skills to hire in the Commercial Sector (column 4). Based on the “generic similarity” assumption made above, “Mapping” and “Geography” are similar enough in concept and idea to make a cross-Sector comparison.. Therefore, we are able to place them in the same row. As can be seen, this creates a cross-Sector row indicating that “Mapping” and “Geography” -similar concepts and idea - are of key importance across all the Sectors in the Remote Sensing Industry. Similarly, Row 2 indicates that another cross-Sector activity of high importance to the industry is the Environment and the generically similar Natural Resource Management. Other rows (3-9), while not showing concepts or ideas of across-the-board importance, do show clusters of varying sizes of important Remote Sensing Markets/Applications/Activities within the major Market Sectors. Blank areas occur when there are no generically similar activities in any particular column. It should be noted that the columns were set up to facilitate comparisons across the columns and, therefore the list in the Columns are not rank ordered. (Generically grouped)(NOT rank ordered) 9/18/20189/18/2018

Forecast Plan Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002) Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004) 9/18/20189/18/2018

Topics Review Phase I - Industry Baseline Background Results Phase II - User Needs/Requirements Status Interview Results Preliminary Survey Results 9/18/20189/18/2018

Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives 1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER Academic Commercial Government 2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS 3. Determine Needs-driven APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline 4. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS 5. Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS Data COLLECTION (Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search) Analysis During Phase I of our process, we established a solid Commercial Remote Sensing Industry baseline. During that Phase we looked closely at Market Sectors, Market Segments and Business Segments. The focus for Phase II is the Line Manager and End-User. For this Phase we set the following objectives: 1. Identify and profile the Managers (Purchasers) and End-Users who use/need remote sensing data, information and software products to do their job; 2. Identify and baseline the on-the-job needs (in non-technical terms) of these same Managers and End-Users; 3. Determine needs-driven applications requirements as they derive from the managers and end-user needs baseline; 4. Determine if current applications provide cost effective solutions to needs-driven applications requirements 5. Assess current, emergent and future technology capabilities to meet needs-driven applications requirements The Team determined that the most efficient way to meet these objectives would be to collect and analyze data to meet goals 1 and 2 and then, through analysis, use that data to meet goals 3-5. This led to the development of a coordinated and integrated data collection plan using a Survey, Interviews, Focus Group and Literature Search techniques. Data collection and analysis is ongoing at this time 9/18/20189/18/2018

Comparison of Market Segment vs. Applications/Areas of Focus Most Least Are the areas of least focus those of biggest opportunity? In General, The Applications/Areas of Focus most frequently selected by Interviewees parallel the most Active Market Segments in our Phase I Survey The major exceptions (Utilities, Agriculture and National /Security) are probably due to a shift in interest toward toward State and Local government interests and civil applications. 9/18/20189/18/2018

Use of Imagery Types and Format Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 65% of the time. Mutispectral imagery collected from space is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms and second only to panchromatic imagery collected by aerial platforms. Digital Format is used 70% of the time; film is used 30%. (Preference? Trend? Cost? Ease of Use?) 9/18/20189/18/2018

Spatial Resolution Use About 40% use > 1 meter resolution Nearly 60%use 2 meters or less The Government sample (NACo and The Association of State Floodplain Mappers) considers higher Spatial Resolution (at least 1 meter) important. 9/18/20189/18/2018

Importance of RS Data/Information Characteristics Users of data/information collected from both Aerial and Space Platforms agree that Spatial Resolution and Geolocation Accuracy are the most important characteristics Cost is an important characteristic but not most important to this interview sample. … HOWEVER, survey sample indicates that cost is a major driver for Manager-Users who purchase the data/information 9/18/20189/18/2018

The County* GIS/RS “Environment” NACo Interviewees were predominantly elected officials (who control budgets) generally unfamiliar with GIS, although most of the knew it was related to mapping 1998 NACo GIS committee established to educate the NACo membership Current users of GIS are strong advocates Generally, county governments are just starting to build GIS databases County capabilities vary from computerless to hi-tech Usually combine aerial photography with existing GIS At the county level, the GIS Coordinator where the GIS knowledge lies. Resides in various departments, e.g., Planning, Information Technology, County Assessors, County Surveyors, etc. * Per 51 NAC0 Interviews 9/18/20189/18/2018

Conclusions The CRSI market is growing at about 13% per year (Effects of 9/11/01???) About $2B in 2001, growing to about $6B in 2010 (Constant CY 2000 $) Aerial and Satellite markets do not seem to be in competition The CRSI is fragmented and populated with lots of small companies Does not necessarily mean low entry barriers. Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 2 times more frequently than imagery collected from Space Platforms High Resolution, Geo-location Accuracy and Cost are market drivers Digital is the preferred format 9/18/20189/18/2018

Conclusions Companies operate in more than one business segment Government agencies are the largest potential Customer group(about 67% of revenues thru 2006 per F/S) Federal and SLT interests are not the same Decisions re: the use of remote sensing products are made by elected officials The problem lies in funding, education, training, and awareness, not in available technology. Currently, Across All Sectors, the most Active Markets/Apps/Activities/ Market Segments are: Mapping/Geography Environment Civil Government National/Global Security Transportation 9/18/20189/18/2018

Topics Review Phase I - Industry Baseline Background Results Phase II - User Needs/Requirements Status Interview Results Preliminary Survey Results 9/18/20189/18/2018

Phase II Forecast Framework Requirements Areas Sectors Community Growth & Infrastructure Business Demographics Government Private Environmental Assessment Application Areas Academia Disaster Management Resource Management Exploration/ Resources Forestry Utilities Insurance Agriculture Civil Gov’t Entertainment/ Media Real Estate Telecomms Environmental Security/Defense National/Global Transportation National/Global Security & Defense General Mapping* Business Demographics * Includes: Engineering, GIS, Land Surveying 9/18/20189/18/2018

Preliminary User Survey Data 25 October 2001 Lots of Analyses yet to do Commercial v. Government v. Academia User v. Manager Use v. Need etc., etc. 9/18/20189/18/2018

Job Description of Respondents DRAFT Number of Responses Sector Users (End Users & Manager/Users) are in the majority 9/18/20189/18/2018

Government Sub-Sector of Employment DRAFT Number of Responses SLT Sub-Sector About 60% of the Government respondents are at SLT level 9/18/20189/18/2018

Average Amount of time spent on Research DRAFT Average Weighted Percentage Sector Government and Academic sectors spend most the time on R&D (Invest most?) During Phase I we found that the commercial sector does not invest heavily in R&D. Function of company size. 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Educational Levels A well educated sample Number of Responses Level of Education 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Degrees by Discipline Responses Disciplines 60% have had course work related to remote sensing Similar to Phase I Academic data re; Geography & GIS, Geology and Environment topping list 9/18/20189/18/2018

Employer-Sponsored Remote Sensing Training Responses DRAFT Frequency 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software Which dominates? Which is (are) most cross-cutting Commercial, Government, Academic DRAFT Percentage of Total Responses 539 Respondents 1108 Responses The majority of Respondents use at least two categories Data and Information are used more than Software 9/18/20189/18/2018

Application Area Needs DRAFT Number of Responses Application Areas It appears that user needs are not being very well met across all market segments. (Opportunities in application upgrades?) 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Elevation Accuracy Number of Responses Level of Elevation Accuracy There is probably a need for some better elevation accuracy at the “finer” levels. 9/18/20189/18/2018

Elevation Accuracy: Government (Commercial and Academic to go.) There appears to be a decided need for increased elevation accuracy in the Government Sector (Fed v. SLT) DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Elevation Accuracy 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Spatial Resolution Number of Responses Level of Spatial Resolution Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for higher spatial resolution (3 feet or less). 9/18/20189/18/2018

Geo-location Accuracy DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Geo-location Accuracy Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for better geo-location accuracy (18” and less) 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Preferences for Timeliness Timeliness seems to be needs driven. 1-3 Weeks =20%-25% > 1 Week = ~40% ~20% Number of Respondents DRAFT Timeframe Timeliness seems to be needs driven. Not all users need/prefer to have data sooner . 9/18/20189/18/2018

DRAFT Use of Imagery Number of Responses Image Types Expectation of Technology Breakthrough? Number of Responses Image Types Largest increases in use: Hyperspectral LIDAR Digital Color Digital B/W Color IR Film 9/18/20189/18/2018

Survey Conclusions We have lots of work to do What we have looked at is generally consistent with Interviews and Phase I results When completed, Phase II will accomplish its Objectives. 9/18/20189/18/2018

Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives 1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER Academic Commercial Government 2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS 3. Determine Needs-driven APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline 4. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS 5. Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS Data COLLECTION (Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search) Analysis During Phase I of our process, we established a solid Commercial Remote Sensing Industry baseline. During that Phase we looked closely at Market Sectors, Market Segments and Business Segments. The focus for Phase II is the Line Manager and End-User. For this Phase we set the following objectives: 1. Identify and profile the Managers (Purchasers) and End-Users who use/need remote sensing data, information and software products to do their job; 2. Identify and baseline the on-the-job needs (in non-technical terms) of these same Managers and End-Users; 3. Determine needs-driven applications requirements as they derive from the managers and end-user needs baseline; 4. Determine if current applications provide cost effective solutions to needs-driven applications requirements 5. Assess current, emergent and future technology capabilities to meet needs-driven applications requirements The Team determined that the most efficient way to meet these objectives would be to collect and analyze data to meet goals 1 and 2 and then, through analysis, use that data to meet goals 3-5. This led to the development of a coordinated and integrated data collection plan using a Survey, Interviews, Focus Group and Literature Search techniques. Data collection and analysis is ongoing at this time 9/18/20189/18/2018

Back-Up 9/18/20189/18/2018

Phase I Survey Sample Size * = Excluded Students & Retired 9/18/20189/18/2018

Use of Imagery Types and Format Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 65% of the time. This preference is also reflected in the NACo sample. Mutispectral imagery collected from space is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms and second only to panchromatic imagery collected by aerial platforms. Digital Format is used 70% of the time; film is used 30%. (Preference? Trend? Cost? Ease of Use?) 9/18/20189/18/2018

Proportional Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software is about the same in each sector. DRAFT Number of Responses Sector Proportional Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software is about the same in each sector. 9/18/20189/18/2018