St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS)

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Presentation transcript:

St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS) Michael G. Cullum, P.E. Director, Bureau of Engineering

The Water Supply Impact study is the most comprehensive and rigorous investigation of the St. Johns River ever conducted. I want to briefly talk about the peer review process with NRC. First, our approach was unusual in that we collaborated with NRC from the start of the analysis. Normally, peer review is performed on a completed draft document and then revised to consider the peer review comments. We did not want to spend years performing our analyses and find out at the end that the NRC committee had major issues with our approach or analyses. So we interacted from the beginning with the NRC and I believe in the long term it resulted in a better report as we able to explore many approaches and issues regarding the engineering and science work efforts. We also conducted a series of six face-to-face meetings with the NRC Were able to take them on field trips to see the resources Able to build professional relationships of mutual respect and understanding Bottom line for me and I think our team that the interaction and input from NRC was very useful.

Major Conclusions The St. Johns River can be used as an alternative water supply source with no more than negligible or minor effects. Future land use changes, completion of the Upper St. Johns River Basin Project, and sea level rise reduce the effects of water withdrawals. Potential for environmental effects varies along the river’s length. The study provides peer-reviewed tools for use by the District and others.

National Academy of Sciences National Research Council (NRC) Peer Review Three-year process working with the NRC peer review committee. Committee consisted of nine experts. Six multi-day meetings, field trips and numerous teleconferences. NRC ̶ 105 page report, December 2011

NRC Concluding Comment “The overall strategy of the study and the way it was implemented were appropriate and adequate to address the goals that the District established for the WSIS.”

The first step: - Understand hydrology and hydraulics and predict the changes - Resulting from potential water withdrawals. Watershed hydrology models predict inflows into the river. River hydrodynamic model predicts river flow, level, and salinity.

Baseline Scenario 1995 Landuse Water Supply Planning Base Year Good Data set 1995-2006 Stable USJ Project Conditions Use for Calibration of Models

Forecast Scenarios 2030 Land-Use Complete Upper SJR Projects Fellsmere, C1- Sawgrass Lakes Three Forks Marsh Conservative Sea Level Rise (14 cm) Withdrawal Scenarios - 77.5 mgd, 155 mgd, & 262 mgd

Watershed Models Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) 90 separate models 11 in-house modelers External Peer Review Model for Upper SJR Basin 55 mgd - near Lake Poinsett

HSPF Modeling DEM LULC Soils Land Cover Soils Land-use, reaches, and rainfall gauges

Upper St. Johns River Basin 1,780 square miles Average 663 mgd Sub-watersheds USGS flow gages Calibrated tributaries

River Hydrodynamics Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) 3,000 horizontal x 6 vert. grids 7 in-house modelers,6 outside experts 55 mgd Lake Poinsett 50 mgd Yankee Lake 50 mgd Lake Jesup 107 mgd Ocklawaha River

Withdrawal and Grid

SJR Transect Bottom Elevations 50 100 200 300 -17 -33 -50 Blue Cypress Lake Lake Poinsett Lake Washington Lake Harney Lake Monroe Lake George Bottom Elevation NGVD29 feet Distance from Mouth (miles)

St. Johns River Salinity January 2002

St. Johns River Salinity May 2002

St. Johns River Salinity September 2002

Water Level differences for Forecast Scenarios Total +14 cm SLR Land-Use Projects +155 mgd withdrawal Lake George Lake Monroe Lake Harney Acosta Shands 6 4 Water Level Difference (in) 2 -2 100 200 300 Distance from River Mouth (miles)

Distance from River Mouth (miles) 10 20 40 60 Miles Distance from River Mouth (miles)

Salinitiy Animation title slide Ocean Simulation Date Salinitiy Animation title slide Baseline SAV Stress Withdrawal Effect { Scale Ocean Jacksonville Ocean 10 20 40 60 Miles Distance from River Mouth (miles)

The Next Step Was to Evaluate Hydroecological Effects Assessing ecological change resulting from changes in river flows and levels