World Geography Chapter 5 - Population Human Geography World Geography Chapter 5 - Population

Demography Demography: the study of population Why do we study population? Trends Find out what is changing Make predictions Demographics: population characteristics of a particular area

Population

Most/Least Populated http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIZWX_AypNg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiIEz1D3It0

People are NOT distributed evenly across the Earth.

Population Concentrations Where do people in the world live? Temperate (mid-latitude climates): not too hot or too cold, lots of vegetation (but no extremes – rainforest, tundra) Near water

Major Population Centers East Asia 1/4 of the world’s population is here-China with over 1.3 billion. Most Chinese live on the east coast. Other areas include Japan, Korea and Vietnam. Most people are farmers, not city dwellers.

Major Population Centers South Asia 2nd major population cluster. dense pop. Along the Ganges and Indus rivers. 1.5 billion in South Asia and over 1.1 billion in India alone Bangladesh (size of Iowa) with 141 million.

Major Population Centers Europe 3rd in population with 700 million 75% to 90% living in cities. Population density varies from the highest in the Netherlands to very low in Iceland.

Major Population Centers North America Megalopolis Boston to Washington, D.C. which includes New York, Philadelphia and Boston. Other major population concentrations: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Unlike Europe, North America has large areas of sparsely populated regions.

Arithmetic Density the total number of people divided by the total land area highest population densities are found in Asia, Europe and Central America.

Physiological Density the number of people per unit of arable land a better measure than arithmetic density of the relationship between population and resources can be misleading since it does not consider the productivity of the soil or the resources and expertise of the farmers

World Population Growth – Rate of natural increase (does not take into account immigration and emigration).

Today, the pace of world population growth is slowing Today, the pace of world population growth is slowing. Where have Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) fallen below replacement level and why?

Population Growth After 2 centuries of slow growth, world population began explosive growth after WW II. UN Projections are for global growth are at nearly 9 billion by 2050. The total may rise to over 11 billion by the end of the 21st century. Greatest growth in the 1990s took place in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa.

After 2 centuries of slow growth, world population began explosive growth after WW II. UN Projections are for global growth of nearly 9 billion by 2050. The total may rise to over 11 billion by the end of the 21st century. Greatest growth in the 1990s took place in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa.

Crude Birth Rate: total # of births per 1000 of the population

Total Fertility Rate TFR is the average number of children a woman will have throughout her child-bearing years (roughly ages 15 through 49). It is age-adjusted, thus 2 nations with identical birth rates may have quite different fertility rates and prospects for growth.

Total Fertility Rate

Replacement Rate Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which newborn girls would have an average of exactly one daughter over their lifetimes. That is, women have just enough female babies to replace themselves (or, equivalently, adults have just enough total babies to replace themselves).

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per TFR is the average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the same rate as women of those ages actually did in a given year. It is age-adjusted, thus 2 nations with identical birth rates may have quite different fertility rates and prospects for growth. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per woman is considered “replacement level.”

TFR: UN Projections Years TFR 1950–1955 4.95 1955–1960 4.89 1950–1955 4.95 1955–1960 4.89 1960–1965 4.91 1965–1970 4.85 1970–1975 4.45 1975–1980 3.84 1980–1985 3.59 1985–1990 3.39 1990–1995 3.04 1995–2000 2.79 2000–2005 2.62 2005–2010 2.52 2010–2015 2.36

Crude Death Rates Aka mortality rate # of deaths per 1000 individuals per year (thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total) show less world wide variability than do birth rates due to widespread availability of at least minimal health care and a generally youthful population in the developing nations where death rates are frequently lower than in “old age” Europe.

Crude Death Rates show less world wide variability than do birth rates due to widespread availability of at least minimal health care and a generally youthful population in the developing nations where death rates are frequently lower than in “old age” Europe. Crude Death Rates

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In the US 85 years and older is the fastest growing group in the US Population 2005 the “old old” topped 5 million By 2050 it is expected to be 20 million Midwest has a high percentage since the young leave for jobs elsewhere. Boston and San Francisco have gone grayer as seniors age in place.

85 years and older is the fastest growing group in the US Population 2005 the “old old” topped 5 million By 2050 it is expected to be 20 million Midwest has a high percentage since the young leave for jobs elsewhere. Boston and San Francisco have gone grayer as seniors age in place.

Infant Mortality Rates Dramatic declines in the rates have occurred in all countries as a result of international health care delivery programs. Despite these efforts the most dramatic decreases in infant mortality have been in the urbanize, industrialized west.

Dramatic declines in the rates have occurred in all countries as a result of international health care delivery programs. Despite these efforts the most dramatic decreases in infant mortality have been in the urbanize, industrialized west. Infant Mortality Rate: - the number of deaths of children under the age of 1, per thousand of the general population.

Life Expectancy: The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

Dependency Ratio The number of people under the age of 15 and over age 64, compared to the number of people active in the labor force.

Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

Mean Age http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html “Train surfing” in Brazil

What is the Demographic Transition? The shift from high to low mortality and fertility through four distinct stages. Based on the experience of Western Europe’s Industrial Age. Began by Warren Thompson in 1929. Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress? The shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility is known as the “demographic transition.” It is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales. This model was first described by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. In 1945, Frank W. Notestein further developed this theory and suggested that there was a relationship between population change and industrialization. A debate continues questioning if population growth must decline for economic development or if economic progress (or industrialization) leads to slower population growth. In light of this debate, the completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress. [FYI – The factors that drive childbearing trends—such as the economy, education, gender relations, and access to family planning—are numerous and complex. These same factors are signs of socioeconomic development.]

The Classic Demographic Transition Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. This chart explains the typical changes in the birth rate and death rate that happen as a country industrializes (including the U.S.). It models the classic demographic transition. This shift occurred throughout Europe, North America, and a number of other areas in the 19th and early 20th centuries, and started in many developing countries in the middle of the 20th century. Stage 1: The trend of high birth and death rates (and minimal population growth) Stage 2: Starts when the death rate begins to drop for years, and often decades, until the beginning of its stabilization at a new, low level. (In Europe, this stage happened because of improved health and living conditions and marked beginning a period of rapid population growth.) Stage 3: Next the birth rate falls to about the same, low level as the death rate. Stage 4: With birth and death rates at similar low levels, the equilibrium of slow population growth is regained. [FYI - Declines in the birth rate around the world have also become steeper due to the widespread availability of contraceptives in the last half of the 20th Century. In 1960 10% of married women worldwide had access to family planning. By 2003 60% of married women had access to family planning. (PRB, “Transitions in World Population,” Population Bulletin, p. 8)]

Stage 1 - High Fluctuating Reasons Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today. Crude Birth Rate: High 40-50 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: High 40-50 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: None 0 / 1,000 Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

Stage 2 - Early Expanding Reasons Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria Crude Birth Rate: High 40+ / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Lower 15 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: Very High 25+/1,000

Stage 3 - Late Expanding Crude Birth Rate: Lower 20 / 1,000 Reasons Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil. Crude Birth Rate: Lower 20 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: Low 10 / 1000

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating Reasons Economy is settled Fully developed Middle Class Political stability Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain Crude Birth Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: None 0 / 1,000