DTM, Population Pyramids, and the ETM: AP Exam Review AP Human Geography AP Exam Review Unit
Stage 1: Low Growth NI Rate = 0 Hunting and gathering societies Little to no elements of culture No economic or political systems
Stage 2: Rapid Growth DR drops drastically BR remains same as Stage 1 (high) Population explosion Highest NIR of all stages Many countries entered this stage as a result of the Industrial Revolution after 1750. Today: many African countries in this stage: unavailability of healthcare/contraceptives, role of children. Huge dependency ratio for youth services.
Stage 3: Moderate Growth BR begins to drop sharply DR still falls, but slower than in Stage 2 Europe and N. America entered this stage first half of 20th century due to effects of IR and 2nd Ag Rev. Most Asian and Latin American countries entered this stage recently: healthcare and contraceptives more widespread, women in workforce and schools
Stage 4: Little/No Growth BR and DR are virtually equal NIR is zero ZPG Women are productive members of the country’s economy and involved in the political process. TFR is around 2. Gender inequality is less prominent. Women have access to a variety of contraceptives.
Stage 5: Negative Growth DR is consistently higher than BR Population is getting older and smaller Japan, Russia, Germany, Greece,
4 3 5
Big Picture Comparisons Rostow’s Model Traditional Society * Stage 1-2 of DTM Preconditions for Takeoff * Stage 2 of DTM Takeoff * Stage 2-3 of DTM Drive to Maturity * Stage 3-4-5 of DTM Mass Consumption * Stage 4-5 of DTM BRICs and NICs Stage 3-4 of DTM Semi-periphery Wallerstein’s Model Core * Stage 4-5 of DTM Semi-Periphery * Stage 3-4 of DTM Periphery * Stage 2 of DTM
Epidemiologic Transition Model Focuses on distinctive causes of deaths in each stage of the DTM Epidemiology: incidence, distribution, and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people
ET Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine Diffusion of the Black Plague High CDR Infectious and parasitic diseases are principal causes of human deaths Most violent: Black Plague
ET Stage 2: Receding Pandemics Rapidly declining CDR Pandemic: disease over a wide area and affects a high proportion of population Most violent: cholera Dr. John Snow’s Cholera Map, London, 1854 IR Cholera Deaths ½ million in NYC in 1832 1/8 of Cairo in 1831
ET Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases Moderately declining CDR Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging Most violent: cardiovascular diseases, various cancers Sharp drop in infectious diseases: Polio Measles
ET Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases Low, but increasing CDR Life expectancy increased due to medical advances
ET Stage 5? Reemerging Infectious Diseaeses A possible 5th stage due to: (1) Evolution of diseases: antibiotics and GE lead to new strains of viruses and bacteria (2) Poverty: diseases like TB controlled in MDCs but not in LDCs (3) Increased connections: cars, planes, trains H1NI (swine), SARS
Disease and Terrorism? Post 9/11/01, fear of smallpox Last epidemic in U.S. in 1947 20 cases in Oklahoma 1 million deaths within 3 months in 3 states U.S. vaccinations in 1947 (last reported case) Last reported global case in 1977 Somalia
AIDS (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) Caused by HIV 1980: 200,000 1990: 8,000,000 2001: 40,000,000 Impacts sub-Sahara Africa the most 11% of population; 70% of reported cases Crude death rates increased Botswana: Life expectancy declined from mid-50s during 80s to under 40 in the 90s and now up to 54 (2014)