Hazards Planning and Risk Management INTRODUCTION TO HAZARDS Lecture No. 01 INTRODUCTION TO HAZARDS Fall 2016 US – Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water

Learning Objectives To become familiar with the subject related terminologies, definitions, prevailing theories, and basic concepts

What is meant by a Hazard? A dangerous condition or event, that threats or has the potential for causing injury to life or damage to property/environment

Definitions: Hazards A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. (UNISDR) The probability of occurrence within a specified period of time and within a given area of a potentially damaging phenomenon" (UNDRO, 1991). UNISDR - United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNDRO - United Nations Disaster Relief Organization

Hazard Categories Two main categories Natural Manmade Caused because of natural processes or phenomena within earth system Manmade Due to human negligence Some are Socio-natural Both natural and manmade Flood may be due to both excessive rain and change in land use practices

Examples Geological hazards Water & climatic Environmental Earthquake Volcanic eruption Tsunami Landslide Floods Droughts Cyclone Environmental pollution deforestation Forest fire War Industrial accidents Oil spills etc Geological hazards Water & climatic Environmental Manmade or technological Note: forest fire may also be accident related hazard Chemical, industrial and nuclear accidents: oil spill/fires Erath system: (lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere or atmosphere) "lithosphere" (land) or geosphere, "hydrosphere" (water), "biosphere" (living things), and "atmosphere" (air) Manmade or technological: also infrastructure failure Note: These categories are not mutually exclusive

What do you think about Global warming? Is this a hazard? If so, then what type of hazard – environmental or manmade or … ? Global warming and temperature rise may cause many other hazards – like? Glacier retreat, floods, droughts, forest fire, hurricanes, cyclones, etc.

Hazard Spectrum (Jones, 1993) http://booklens.com/e-mark-lee/landslide-risk-assessment quasi-natural . (landslide due to road cutting, dust storm due to over grazing, flood due to dam failure, etc.) If human activity has caused the natural hazard then it can be classified as a quasi-natural: Examples??? Na-tech: natural hazards triggering technological Disasters: Examples??

Disaster?

Meaning of the word ‘Disaster’ Meaning has changed through times In early usage it had reference to unfavorable or negative effects, usually of a personal nature, resulting from a star or a planet (E. L. Quarantelli) “we make guilty of our disasters the sun, the moon and stars” - Shakespeare, King Lear-Act I, Scene 2, 1605 Sir Slingsby, writing in his diary in 1684, that, “I am very ill of a disaster upon my stomach.” Source: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/edu/hazdisusems.asp

Later the term ‘Natural’ substituted for the term ‘Supernatural’ Then there came a time when the word disaster was applied to major physical disturbances such as earthquakes and floods or what traditionally known as the Acts of God (supernatural) Later the term ‘Natural’ substituted for the term ‘Supernatural’ In recent decades notion of “Acts of Men” going along with Acts of God or natural disasters Some social scientists phrased disasters as the manifestations of the vulnerabilities of social systems Source: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/edu/hazdisusems.asp Interactive effect of nature and society. Thus, while the notion of disaster as being something of an undesirable happening has prevailed from the beginning, there also have been the indicated changes about the perceived source of the problem going from the stars, to God, to nature, to men and women, and now to society.

Disaster? Sudden adverse or unfortunate extreme event which causes great damage to human being as well as plants and animals Either natural or manmade from intense to diffuse predictable to unpredictable Disaster occurs: Rapidly Instantaneously Indiscriminately Range from intense to diffuse (isolated events with wide and unrecognized temporal and spatial distribution e.g. diffuse epidemic) predictable to unpredictable Indiscriminately: at random, arbitrarily, haphazardly, by chance (earthquake, tsunami, landslide, etc.) (soil erosion, land degradation, glacier retreat, desertification, etc.)

Disaster? Severity varies and can be measured in absolute terms: Deaths Economic damages Number of people affected Impact depends on capability of area to absorb the destructive effects An event causing disaster at local level may not be impacting at regional level Economic disaster depends on the ability at jurisdictional level to deal with the financial consequences. Economic Loss in terms of: loss of 1% GNP People dead: include those confirmed as dead and missing and presumed dead People affected: need immediate assistance during a period of emergency.

Disaster - Definition by the United Nations A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR) Source: http://unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf Disaster impacts may include loss of life, injury, disease and other negative effects on human physical, mental and social well-being, together with damage to property, destruction of assets, loss of services, social and economic disruption and environmental degradation.

Disaster A disaster occurs when a significant number of vulnerable people experience a hazard and suffer severe damage and/or disruption of their livelihood system in such a way that the recovery is unlikely without an external aid. (Blaikie, 1994) A situation or event, which overwhelms local capacity, necessitating a request to national or international level for external assistance; an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes great damage, destruction and human suffering (CRED) Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). CRED’s database is EM-DAT. International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Source: http://www.aegis.com/files/ifrc/2008/IF080601_WDR2008-full%20report-LR.pdf

EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

EM-DAT EM-DAT provides geographical, temporal, human and economic information on disasters at the country level.

EM-DAT Screenshots Examples of database: Profiles and Trends http://www.emdat.be/database Examples of database: Profiles and Trends

Any comment on these trends?

Any comment on these trends?

Exercise Go to the database and determine Historically which disaster type caused more Total Deaths? Total affected? Total damages? You will find out that the answers to 1, 2, and 3 would not be the same. Do you have any explanation for this difference?

Home Assignment Explore further at http://www.emdat.be/database

EM-DAT Criteria EM-DAT includes all disasters from 1900 until the present, conforming to at least one of the following criteria: 10 or more people reported killed 100 people or more reported affected declaration of a state of emergency call for international assistance. The number of people killed includes people confirmed as dead and those missing and presumed dead. People affected are those requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency (i.e., requiring basic survival needs such as food, water, shelter, sanitation and immediate medical assistance). People reported injured or homeless are aggregated with those reported affected to produce a ‘total number of people affected’.

Disaster Classification Natural Disasters biological disasters: insect infestations, epidemics and animal attacks (the last two categories are not considered in the World Disasters Report) geophysical disasters: earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, dry mass movements (avalanches, landslides, rock falls and subsidence of geophysical origin) climatological disasters: droughts (with associated food insecurities), extreme temperatures and wildfires hydrological disasters: floods (including waves and surges), wet mass movements (avalanches, mud/landslides, rock falls and subsidence of hydrological origin) meteorological disasters: storms meteorological disasters: storms (divided into nine sub-categories)

Disaster Classification The Technological Disasters comprise three groups: industrial accidents: chemical spills, collapse of industrial infrastructure, explosions, fires, gas leaks, poisoning, radiation transport accidents: transport by air, rail, road or water miscellaneous accidents: collapse of domestic/non-industrial structures, explosions, fires

Disaster vs. Hazard Hazard is a danger that a disaster event may develop A disaster is a function of the risk process Risk results from the combination of exposure to a hazard, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk. A hazard may cause a disaster to a vulnerable society. Disasters are often described as a result of the combination of: the exposure to a hazard; the conditions of vulnerability that are present; and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce or cope with the potential negative consequences. Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats. When the threat becomes a reality, or when it materializes, the risk becomes a disaster. For example, a certain area might be located in a region where earthquakes might occur. There is a certain hazard. There is only risk if within the earthquake hazard area there is a vulnerable society. There is a risk that a future earthquake might cause considerable casualties and losses. When the hazard materializes, the earthquake actually takes place, causing the losses and casualties to the vulnerable society, and creating the disaster.

A disaster happens when a hazard impacts on the vulnerable population and causes damage, casualties and disruption A hazard is disastrous only when it affects people, their properties and activities For example; an earthquake in an uninhabited desert cannot be considered a disaster, no matter how strong the intensities produced Disaster occurs only when hazards and vulnerability meet

When Hazard and risk materializes then Disaster occurs Probability of hazard

Source: http://www. who

Terminology by UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Risk: The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Acceptable risk: The level of potential losses that a society or community considers acceptable given existing social, economic, political, cultural, technical and environmental conditions. Disaster risk: The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period. Capacity: The combination of all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals. This terminology is based on the 2009 version.

Vulnerability: The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. Exposure: People, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Forecast: Definite statement or statistical estimate of the likely occurrence of a future event or conditions for a specific area. Comment: In meteorology a forecast refers to a future condition, whereas a warning refers to a potentially dangerous future condition Mitigation: The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters.

Preparedness: The knowledge and capacities developed by governments, professional response and recovery organizations, communities and individuals to effectively anticipate, respond to, and recover from, the impacts of likely, imminent or current hazard events or conditions. Prevention: The outright avoidance of adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters. Recovery: The restoration, and improvement where appropriate, of facilities, livelihoods and living conditions of disaster-affected communities, including efforts to reduce disaster risk factors. Response: The provision of emergency services and public assistance during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected.

For more terms look at: http://unisdr For more terms look at: http://unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEngl ish.pdf

Discussion/Comment/Question