Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Presentation transcript:

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Outlook for the U.S. and Florida October 25, 2017 Association for Corporate Growth Hank Fishkind Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12051 Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817

Factors Shaping U.S. Outlook How much momentum? Impact of structural change? New economic policies? Policies on trade and immigration? When will higher interest rates slow growth? Will the labor market overheat? 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Yogi Berra observed, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. U.S. Forecast Summary 2017 – 2020 Current status +/- 3% GDP growth Positive forces: Strong gains in jobs and rising wages Low interest rates, oil prices and inflation AI and big data Negative forces: Structural change without proper policy response Monetary policy – the shift to normal rates Trump’s fiscal policies will boost growth and interest rates in 2018 Big tax cuts for corporations and households Higher defense spending Reduced regulations Big unknowns are healthcare, immigration and trade policies Boom in 2018-19 then higher rates and recession Main forecasts risk: (1) fiscal policies under Trump, (2) Geopolitical risks, and (3) effects of higher interest rates 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Florida Summary Strong cyclical upswing underway Sustained job growth lead by tourism and healthcare Population growth stronger then expected Impact from Puerto Rico Recovery is accelerating, and it will be above average recovery by Florida standards by 2018 515,000 population growth 255,000 new jobs 135,000 housing starts Geographic focus of growth shifted and tightened 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. How much momentum? 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATION 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Structural change 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Structural Change AI and Automation Globalization Immigration Income inequality Impact on real estate development Less demand for space Retail and office in particular Climate Change and Current Impacts 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Low Growth Trajectory for Real GDP Fallout from Great Recession Increased regulation Lower risk tolerance Globalization Holds down prices Holds down wages Income Inequality Underestimate GDP Investment in Tech Consumption Social Media Current mix of monetary and fiscal Policies yields +/- 2% Growth GDP 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Structural Change, Retail Sales and Store Space Major structural changes in retail sales Historic shift to ecommerce Change in composition of sales: less goods and more services Impact on store space requirements 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Retail Sales Variations Retail sales up 5% YOY Weak sectors Department & general merchandise, appliances and apparel 10 bankruptcies including Payless ShoeSource, Limited Stores, HHGregg and Wet Seal Strong Sectors too 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Economic Policy Issues in a World of Structural Change Transformational forces Globalization/Trade Automation/Artificial Intelligence Migration Slow economic growth / low demand Distributional issues for those left behind / political & economic issues Debt and structural issues in the budget 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Long Term Economic Growth % GDP = % Productivity + % Population 1.8% to 1.75% GDP 0.8% to 1.5% productivity 1% to 1.25% population Investment in human & physical capital Reform entitlements and healthcare Revise immigration policy 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Current Impacts of Climate Change on Florida Increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones Increased “nuisance” flooding monthly in Miami Beach and the Keys Rising sea level and beach erosion Algal blooms and invasive plants/bugs Migration from Puerto Rico >500,000 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

$Billion Events Impacting the U.S. from 2005-2017 Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ Florida subject to hurricanes which are the most damaging of events 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Damage from Recent Florida Hurricanes 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

2017 Hurricanes in Perspective 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Forecast 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Trump Fiscal Policy Affordable Care Act - delayed Major fiscal stimulus - Maybe Tax cuts for corporations and households appears likely Increased spending for defense no infrastructure package Major unresolved issues remain Debt ceiling Structural budget deficit Major unknowns and risks Foreign trade Immigration 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Average Outlays Average Revenues 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. INTEREST RATES 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

GDP Growth (Percent growth SAAR) 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Correlation 0.88 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Correlations with U.S. GDP Orlando 0.90 Tampa 0.86 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Average 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Orlando MSA Growth Population and Employment 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Orlando MSA Housing Starts 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Orlando MSA Non Residential Construction 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. The End 9/19/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.