A Time of Creative Destruction… 9/19/2018 9/19/2018 A Time of Creative Destruction… Emerging markets dot.com and Internet mania financial casino London funded global market infrastructure build-up (Argentina, Australia, USA) Railway mania Canal mania Roaring twenties Autos, housing, radio, aviation, electricity “Gilded Ages” Bubbles Sustainable global knowledge-society golden age? Post-war Golden Age Belle Époque (Europe) “Progressive Era” (USA) The Victorian Boom Great British Leap “Golden Ages” Booms 1771 Britain 1829 Britain 1875 Britain / USA Germany 1908 USA 1971 USA 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 2000/7–? Recessions 1890–95 Europe 1929–33 USA 1929–43 1848–50 1793–97 2008 -??? Source: Carlota Perez Imagining the next stage of market society – beyond the industrial era…? C.PEREZ - OME Foresight Forum Barcelona 2009 Perez Imperial C. June 2009 1

http://www.econ.washington.edu/news/millimansl.pdf – from Robert Lucas

Productivity Growth US http://dallasfed.org/fed/annual/2003/images/8trends.gif 2003 Annual Report – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, http://dallasfed.org/fed/annual/2003/images/8trends.gif

“Because productivity determines how well we live, Americans want to know how they're doing. … it's a Herculean task to calculate a productivity number that sums up the efforts of 130 million workers, employed in millions of establishments that produce more than $11 trillion in output. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does the best it can in producing quarterly estimates of output per hour, derived largely from surveys of businesses. BLS data show that U.S. productivity has grown steadily over the long haul, with output per hour rising an average 2.3 percent annually since 1870.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2003