Start Small and Retire Early With Weekly Options

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Presentation transcript:

Start Small and Retire Early With Weekly Options Welcome to the Start Small and Retire Early With Weekly Options Webinar/Video Series

Power of PPD in Weekly Options

Weekly Options Provide Unprecedented Opportunities for Traders Regardless of Account Size or Experience

In This Video, I am Going to Show You the Single Most Important Attribute Behind Creating These Unprecedented Trading Opportunities

But Before I Do That, You Need to Understand That Unprecedented Opportunities Does NOT Mean There are No Risks With the Weekly Option Strategies, Even Ones That Take Advantage of This Important Attribute

What I am Going to Show You is Very Powerful, so Powerful in Fact that if Traded Properly, the Probabilities of Long-Term Success are Mathematically Fixed in Your Favor

These Opportunities are So Powerful That Many Traders Throw Caution to the Wind and Are Lulled into Making Critical Mistakes Under a False Sense of Security

To Some Extent, I Would Say the Odds are Better Than if You Are the House in a Casino

But Having the Probabilities Mathematically Fixed in Your Favor Does Not Mean Success is Certain. Probabilities are NOT Certainties. So, However You Decide to Take Advantage of Weekly Options, START SMALL and Make Sure You Fully Understand the Strategy You are Trading and the Risks in General and Specifically Related to the Strategy.

So What is the Single Most Important Contributing Factor to the Unprecedented Opportunities in Weekly Options?

The Best Way to Explain it is to Introduce You to the Concept of PPD

PPD Stands for “Price Per Day”

If You Want to Really Understand How Options Work, This is Where You Start

Every Option Has a PPD. You Calculate the Overall PPD by Dividing the Time Value of the Option by the Number of Days Left Until Option Expiration

Option Price (Time Value) = $300 Days Until Expiration = 30 For Example, If I Have an Out of the Money Option That is Priced at $300 with 30-Days Left Until Expiration, Then the PPD for this Option is $10 PPD. Option Price (Time Value) = $300 Days Until Expiration = 30 $300/30-Days = $10 PPD

In the Money by $50 Total Option Price = $300 If I Have an Option That is “In the Money” by $50 With an Overall Price of $300 and 30-Days Left Until Expiration, Then I would Subtract the Amount the Option is In the Money and Then Apply the Same Formula In the Money by $50 Total Option Price = $300 Time Value = $300 - $50 = $250 Days Until Expiration = 30 $250/30-Days = $8.33 PPD

The Key to Understanding the Unprecedented Opportunities in Weekly Options is to Understand the Warped PPD Values Between Various Options

What Do I Mean by “Warped”?

Let’s Take a Look at 2 Different Options. Option 1 = 200.00 Strike Call With 3-Days Left Option 2 = 200.00 Strike Call With 30-Days Left Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 Option 2 is Priced at 3.65

Option 1 PPD = 0.36 PPD Option 2 PPD = 0.12 PPD Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 with 3-Days Left Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 with 30-Days Left Option 1 PPD = 0.36 PPD Option 2 PPD = 0.12 PPD In This Example, the Overall PPD of the 3-Day Option is 300% Greater Than the PPD of the 30-Day Option

Option 1 = 0.00 (Was 1.10) Option 2 = 3.29 (Was 3.65) The 30-Day Option May be More Expensive, But if the Market Goes Nowhere Over the Next 3-Days the Projected Values Are: Option 1 = 0.00 (Was 1.10) Option 2 = 3.29 (Was 3.65)

Option 1 = 0.00 (Was 1.10) Option 2 = 3.29 (Was 3.65) In Other Words, Option 1 Dropped 0.74 in Value MORE Than Option 2 Dropped.

Option 1 PPD = 0.36 PPD Option 2 PPD = 0.12 PPD From the Perspective of PPD, Which Option is Cheap and Which Option is Expensive? Option 1 PPD = 0.36 PPD Option 2 PPD = 0.12 PPD

Option 1 PPD = 0.36 PPD Option 2 PPD = 0.12 PPD From the Perspective of PPD, Which Option is Cheap and Which Option is Expensive? Option 1 PPD = 0.36 PPD Option 2 PPD = 0.12 PPD Obviously, the Expensive Option is Option 1 and the Cheaper Option is Option 2 When it Comes to PPD

Buy Cheap PPD Options Sell Expensive PPD Options Here is the Over-Riding Principle You Need to Remember When Trading Weekly Options, and it Doesn’t Matter What Option Strategy You Want to Trade… Buy Cheap PPD Options Sell Expensive PPD Options

Buy Cheap PPD Options Sell Expensive PPD Options This Principle Alone is Worth More Than You Have Paid for All Option Related Books or Educational Courses in Options Combined.

Buy Cheap PPD Options Sell Expensive PPD Options I Know Because it is the Backbone Behind Every Option Strategy I Trade. I Don’t Look at the Price of the Option First to Determine Which is the Best Option to Buy or Sell, I Look at the PPD Value First.

Buy Cheap PPD Options Sell Expensive PPD Options And I Have Had Some Pretty Crazy Track Records Associated With PPD Type Strategies, Including One Where I Had 54 Winning Trades in a Row, Not Suffering a Single Losing Trade for an Entire Year (Not Hypothetical)

Let’s Build on What You Already Know With PPD and See Just How Warped Time Value Really is in Weekly Options

Option 1 = 200.00 Strike Call With 3-Days Left Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 = 0.36 PPD Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 = 0.12 PPD

Option 1 = 200.00 Strike Call With 3-Days Left Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 = 0.36 PPD Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 = 0.12 PPD This isn’t Quite Accurate.

Option 1 = 200.00 Strike Call With 3-Days Left Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 = 0.36 PPD Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 = 0.12 PPD I Know That When Option 2 Gets to Where There is Only 3-Days Left, It is Going to Be Valued at Around 1.10.

(That 0.81 Difference Instead of 0.74 Difference) Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 = 0.36 PPD Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 = 0.12 PPD So in Reality, the Average PPD Over the Next 27 Days for Option 2 is Going to Be (3.65 – 1.10) / 27 Or 0.09 PPD (Actually 0.094 PPD). This Means That Option 1 Time Decay Will Actually Be About 380% Faster Than Option 2 Over the Next 3-Days (That 0.81 Difference Instead of 0.74 Difference)

Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 = 0.36 PPD Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 = 0.12 PPD But, We Can Take it a Step Further. Thanks to Weekly Options, We can Compare the Prices of a 30-Day Option With a 23-Day Option and Find Out What the Time Decay Will be Over the Next 7-Days. This Will be More Accurate.

Option 1 is Priced at 1.10 = 0.36 PPD Option 2 is Priced at 3.65 = 0.12 PPD Weekly Options Are Available Concurrently for the Next 6-Fridays (In Markets Where Weekly Options are Available)

For Example, it is January 6th and Each of the Following Fridays Have an Option Expiring in SPY: 1/9/15 1/16/15 1/23/15 1/31/15 2/6/15 2/13/15

I Can Take a Look at an At The Money Option For Each One of the Following Expirations and Determine Not Only the Average Overall PPD, But the PPD for the Next 7-Days 1/9/15 (3-Days) 1/16/15 (10-Days) 1/23/15 (17-Days) 1/31/15 (24-Days) 2/6/15 (31-Days) 2/13/15 (38-Days)

Overall Average PPD (Price of Option Divided by Days to Expiration) 1/9/15 (3-Days) = 1.10 (0.37 PPD) 1/16/15 (10-Days) = 2.00 (0.20 PPD) 1/23/15 (17-Days) = 2.65 (0.16 PPD) 1/31/15 (24-Days) = 3.22 (0.13 PPD) 2/6/15 (31-Days) = 3.65 (0.12 PPD) 2/13/15 (38-Days) = 3.97 (0.10 PPD)

Overall Average PPD Over Next 7-Days (Price of 2/13 – Price of 2/6 Divided by 7 Days) 1/9/15 (3-Days) = 1.10 (0.37 PPD) (0.37) 1/16/15 (10-Days) = 2.00 (0.20 PPD) (0.13) 1/23/15 (17-Days) = 2.65 (0.16 PPD) (0.09) 1/31/15 (24-Days) = 3.22 (0.13 PPD) (0.08) 2/6/15 (31-Days) = 3.65 (0.12 PPD) (0.06) 2/13/15 (38-Days) = 3.97 (0.10 PPD) (0.045)

Overall Average PPD Over Next 7-Days 1/9/15 (3-Days) = 1.10 (0.37 PPD) (0.37) 1/16/15 (10-Days) = 2.00 (0.20 PPD) (0.13) 1/23/15 (17-Days) = 2.65 (0.16 PPD) (0.09) 1/31/15 (24-Days) = 3.22 (0.13 PPD) (0.08) 2/6/15 (31-Days) = 3.65 (0.12 PPD) (0.06) 2/13/15 (38-Days) = 3.97 (0.10 PPD) (0.045) The Rate of Time Decay of the 3-Day Option vs the 38-Day Option Over the Next 3-Days is 822% Faster

And When You Get Down to the Last Day, the 1-Day Rate of Time Decay Between Similar Options Can Exceed 1,000% Faster

1/9/15 (3-Days) = 1.10 (0.37 PPD) (0.37) 1/16/15 (10-Days) = 2.00 (0.20 PPD) (0.13) 1/23/15 (17-Days) = 2.65 (0.16 PPD) (0.09) 1/31/15 (24-Days) = 3.22 (0.13 PPD) (0.08) 2/6/15 (31-Days) = 3.65 (0.12 PPD) (0.06) 2/13/15 (38-Days) = 3.97 (0.10 PPD) (0.045) 38-Days = 3.97 31-Days = 3.65 So, in 7-Days, the 38-Day Option Should Drop From 3.97 to 3.65, or a Total of 0.32 Over the 7-Day Period

1/9/15 (3-Days) = 1.10 (0.37 PPD) (0.37) 1/16/15 (10-Days) = 2.00 (0.20 PPD) (0.13) 1/23/15 (17-Days) = 2.65 (0.16 PPD) (0.09) 1/31/15 (24-Days) = 3.22 (0.13 PPD) (0.08) 2/6/15 (31-Days) = 3.65 (0.12 PPD) (0.06) 2/13/15 (38-Days) = 3.97 (0.10 PPD) (0.045) 38-Days = 3.97 31-Days = 3.65 0.32/7 = 0.045 PPD

One Last Thing Before Moving On The Most Time Value of Any Option Will be in the “At the Money Option” ALWAYS

Chart of PPD of 7-Day Option Verses a 14-Day Option Over the Next 7-Days

The Rate of Time Decay is the Most Important Contributing Factor to the Unprecedented Opportunities Available to Weekly Option Traders

But it is NOT the ONLY Contributing Factor to Option Prices

Don’t Think That You Can Just Buy Cheap Options and Sell Expensive Options Based on PPD and Consider Nothing Else

Another Major Contributing Factor is Price Movement

Everything I Have Shown You is Based on No Price Movement…and of Course, Markets Move

Market Movement Can (And Does) Enhance, Diminish, or Nullify Probabilities Gained From Warped PPD Values

This is Why You Have Different Strategies for Different Objectives Based on Different Possible Price Movements

Certain Strategies Work Better in Stagnant Markets, Others Work Better in Bull Markets, Others in Bear Markets. However, Properly Trading Any of Them Requires That You Structure the Trade to Take Advantage of the Warped Time Value as the Backbone of the Strategy…Always.

Start Small and Retire Early Weekly Option Series My 27% Weekly Option Strategy ($97) One-Two Punch Weekly Option Strategy ($97) Time Warp Weekly Option Strategy (4-Variations) ($497) “Risk Free Projection” Weekly Option Strategy ($197) How to Own a Stock at a Cost Basis of $0 ($97) 12-Month Subscription to PDS Trader ($497) All for Only $497 (You Won’t See This Offer Again)

In Each of the Strategies in This Series, I Explain Everything, Including Risks, What Has to Happen for the Risks to Occur, How to Exit, and in Some Cases, How to Dramatically Reduce Risks Once the Market has Made an Adverse Move

If You Are Serious About Your Growing Your Account, Get Your Copy of the “Start Small and Retire Early With Weekly Options” Video Series and Software Package Offer Ends February 27th