COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments EWGLAM 2003

Organizational Structure of COSMO EWGLAM 2003

Organizational Structure of COSMO (2) EWGLAM 2003

Internal Meetings (2002-2003) 2 Meeting of WPCs WG1: 23 September 2003 Latent Heat Nudging WG2: 23 September 2003 WG3: A workshop at DWD in the last week of July to work on convection WG4: “COSMO-LEPS” meeting 26-28 May 2003 Geneve 23 September 2003 WG5: 26-28 May 2003 Geneve WG6: Workshop on “Code Optimization and Portability“ MeteoSwiss, CSCS and DWD (a working group has been formed) 2 Meeting of WPCs 2 Meeting of the Steering Commitee 19/09/2018

COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics Basic equations: nonhydrostatic, fully compressible primitive equations no scale approximations, advection form subtraction of a stratified dry base state at rest To(z),po(z)) Prognostic variables: u,v,w, T, p’, qv, qc, qi, (etke, qr, qs) Coordinates: rotated geographical coordinates (λ,φ) and a generalized terrain-following coordinate ς EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics Grid structure: - Arakawa C (horizontal) - Lorenz vertical staggering Time integration: - Leapfrog (horizontally explicit, vertically implicit) time-split integration including extension proposed by Skamarock and Klemp 1992 Additional options for: a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit scheme a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme Numerical smoothing: 4th order linear horizontal diffusion with option for a monotonic version including an orographic limiter; Rayleigh-damping in upper layers; 3-d divergence damping and off-centering in split steps EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell : Physical parameterizations Grid-scale Clouds and Precipitation: - Cloud water condensation /evaporation by saturation adjustment. - Cloud Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002) further option; prognostic rain and snow (Gassman,2002) When IC/BCs are not exctrated from operational GME further options are: - The previous HYDOR scheme: precipitation formation by a bulk parameterization including water vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain and snow treated diagnostically by assuming column equilibrium) - a warm rain scheme following Kessler Subgrid-scale Clouds: - Subgrib-scale cloudiness based on relative humidity and height. Moist Convection: a) Mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedke) with closure based on moisture convergence. Further options: - a modified closure based on CAPE within the Tiedke scheme b) The Kain-Fritsch convection scheme EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell : Physical parameterizations Radiation: δ-two stream radiation scheme after Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for short and longwave fluxes; full cloud-radiation feedback Vertical Diffusion: Diagnostic K-closure at hierarchy level 2 with Louis scheme for surface fluxes. Options: a new surface scheme including a laminar-turbulent roughness sublayer Prognostic TKE-closure (level 2.5) effects of subgrid-scale condensation and evaporation are included and the impact from subgrid-scale thermal circulations is taken into account. Soil Processes: a) Two-layer soil model (Jacobsen and Heise, 1982) including snow and interception storage; climate values are prescribed as lower boundary conditions; Penman-Monteith plant transpitration. b) New multi-layer soil model including melting and freezing. EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell (LM): Initial and Boundary Conditions EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell (LM): Code and Parallelization EWGLAM 2003

COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments EWGLAM 2003

Lokal-Modell (LM) : Operational implementations EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR Organizational Structure of COSMO Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview Operational Applications of the LM Activities of the COSMO WGs Future developments EWGLAM 2003

Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Data Assimilation Operational implementation of the data-assimilation cycle in LAMI (the Italian application of LM) Some tuning of the Nudging scheme Development about assimilation of not-conventional data e.g.: ground based GPS data ( sensitivity study in COST 716 framework) (from LM_V3.3) wind profiler data latent heat nudging (radar reflectivity) evaluation on TOVS retrievals (and their use) assimilation of SATOB winds Estimation of realistic soil moisture (ELDAS) A lake temperature model has been developed and is under testing. EWGLAM 2003

The Z_coordinate LM for high resolution applications Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Numerics The Z_coordinate LM for high resolution applications The eulerian version is almost ready for test on real cases (Steppeler-Bitzer) A physical interface has been implemented SL-SI version developed and tested on ideal 2-D cases Formulation of a dynamical Boundary Condition Investigation and testing of RK schemes and high-order spatial discretization Prognostic precipitation scheme: implemented for testing EWGLAM 2003

Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Physical aspects Planetary boundary layer Documentation tuning higher vertical resolution of the lowest part of the boundary layer Parameterisation of boundary layer clouds & sub-grid scale cloudiness Implementation of 3D turbulence formulation (ongoing) The Cloud Ice (Doms, 2002) now operational KF scheme implemented (not yet optimized) New convection scheme (Doms) theoretically developed Prognostic precipitation scheme New multi-layer soil model developed ( both for LM and GME) Lake model (Mironov, 2003) developed EWGLAM 2003

Ensemble Prediction Methods Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Interpretation and Applicatios Ensemble Prediction Methods COSMO-LEPS (ARPA_SMR) test suite implemented at ECMWF; the system is running regularly on a daily basis. Products are disseminated to COSMO Partners Mars archiving is under development Verification package is being developed Data from COSMO partners will be collected for subjective verification Subjective verification by forecasters SLEPS system implemented (Meteoswiss) Statistical postprocessing by spatial and temporal aggregation wavelet methos (Theis) implemented at Meteoswiss EWGLAM 2003

Operational verification of surface parameters at all Met Services Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Verification (WG5) Operational verification of surface parameters at all Met Services Operational verification of vertical profiles at Meteoswiss, DWD and UGM Evaluation of various parallel suites at DWD, MeteoSwiss ,ARPA-SMR and UGM High resolution verification using regional radar data and non-GTS data Operational LM forecast maps, from the different COSMO countries, collected in the private COSMO WEB for subjective intercomparison A list of selected case studies has been defined (joint workshop of WG4 and WG5) as sensitive cases for verification EWGLAM 2003

Updates of programs and documentations Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Operational implementation (1) Updates of programs and documentations Define the first Reference Version The Reference Version is LM 3.1(GME2LM Version 1.17 as „official“ version) Install test cases and produce „Reference Output“ test cases have been selected for which Reference Output is available Code optimization and portability A working group (DWD, MCH, CSCS) has been formed Guidelines for the work have been setup Most important: Portable Optimization Maintaining, updating (and mirroring) the COSMO Web Site General information, collaborations, operational set-ups and model documentations Newsletters, Technical Reports and other publications Detailed work plans, operational maps, verification results (member area) Update histories of the programs EWGLAM 2003

Restructuring of Documentation Numerics and Dynamics Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Operational implementation (2) Restructuring of Documentation Numerics and Dynamics Physical Parameterizations Data Assimilation Implementation Documentation User Guide (but not web based) (Web based) Quick Reference Guide EWGLAM 2003

Planned developments for the LM NWP system A general effort to improve the performance of the LM system at the meso-γ scale Further improvements of non-conventional data assimilation (radar: LHN, satellite (TOVS, MSG data) ) Evaluation/improvement of DWD soil moisture analysis Prognostic precipitation scheme: Optimizations in two-timelevel scheme Prognostic precipitation also for 3-timelevel EWGLAM 2003

Planned developments for the LM NWP system The Z_coordinate LM for high resolution applications: The SL-SI version will be completed and 3-d tests will be performed The Z_coordinate system will be integrated in the LM library. Tests on real cases Restructuring of TKE-scheme Further development of 2-timelevel scheme 3D Turbulence EWGLAM 2003

Planned developments for the LM NWP system Assessment of COSMO-LEPS performance through objective and subjective evaluation Improvement of LM verification system high density observing network: non GTS data will be collected from COSMO partners and made available for the verification of the different LM suites and COSMO-LEPS stronger feedback with forecasters EWGLAM 2003

Planned developments for the LM NWP system (2) Interpolation of IC/BCs Toward INT2LM (GME2LM,IFS2LM,LM2LM) Nesting version of LM major revision required; under testing at HNMS and at ARPA Piedmonte Further development and improvement of the COSMO-WEB site e.g. Update histories of the programs and the operational setups Description of the Working Groups regularly updated Exchange of data Better comparison of operational applications The Grib code (clean implementation; external Grib table) Towards ISO 9000: DWD is about to start with ISO activities EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

Z_coordinate LM – SI-SL EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

" The COSMO-LEPS (Lam EPS) system“ EWGLAM 2003

THE NEED: REGIONALISATION OF SCENARIOS (1) Despite the recent increase of computer power resources, which has allowed the development of more and more sophisticated NWP models, the accurate forecast of extreme weather conditions, especially when related to intense and localised precipitation structures, is still difficult. This limitation is due, among other reasons, to the inherent low degree of predictability associated to this kind of phenomena. EWGLAM 2003

THE NEED: REGIONALISATION OF SCENARIOS (2) Global-model ensemble systems have turned out to be important tools to tackle the predictability problem beyond day 2. Probabilistic systems are usually run at a coarser resolution with respect to deterministic predictions. Ensemble skill to forecast intense and localised events in the short and medium--range is still nowadays limited. EWGLAM 2003

“late-short-range (>48h) - early-medium-range (120h)”. THE LEPS APPROACH The main purpose of the LEPS > COSMO-LEPS project is to introduce a probabilistic guidance to identify the possible occurrence of severe weather conditions in the time range “late-short-range (>48h) - early-medium-range (120h)”. By joining the ability of a global-ensemble prediction system to generate a satisfying set of larger scale evolution scenarios (through a good sampling of initial conditions phase-space) with the capacity of LAM of detailing atmospheric phenomena on local scales, particularly in regions with complex orography EWGLAM 2003

B.F. APPROACH One LAM integration for each global EPS member All the information from global EPS is used BUT Hard to be feasible on operational basis THE LEPS APPROACH LAM is nested only in a limited number of members selected from global EPS “Some” of the information from global EPS is lost BUT Feasible on operational basis EWGLAM 2003

LEPS – Limited area Ensemble Prediction System Dim 2 Possible evolution scenarios Dim 1 Initial conditions EPS and ensemble size reduction Cluster members chosen as representative members (RMs) Dim 2 Initial conditions Dim 1 LAM integrations driven by RMs LAM scenario EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

3 global ensembles starting 5/6 days before the verification time Methodology Super ensemble: 3 global ensembles starting 5/6 days before the verification time 153 members (50 + 1)*3 Hierarchical Cluster Analysis method: Complete Linkage area: Southern Europe fields: 4 variables at 4 levels (3D cluster) number of clusters: fixed to 5 5 clusters Representative Member Selection one per cluster base on the nearest (3D fields) to the mean of its own cluster AND the most distant to the other clusters’ means 5 representative members (RMs) 5 LM integrations nested on 5 RMs: COSMO-LEPS - Limited-area (High Resolution) Ensemble Prediction System EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

LEPS VERIFICATION on the MAP SOP Use of probabilistic (and deterministic) indices: ROC Curve / ROC area Brier Score and Brier Skill Score Cost-Loss Analysis Hypothesis testing by RESAMPLING (HAMILL, Weather and Forecasting 1999) EWGLAM 2003

LEPS – Limited area Ensemble Prediction System precipitation scenarios Dim 2 Initial conditions Dim 1 LAM scenario LAM scenario PROBABILITY MAPS LAM scenario EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

Verification domain and stations EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

EWGLAM 2003

LM: Changes in the last Year EWGLAM 2003

Planned developments for the LM NWP system (3) COSMO Software Operational Software β-Version Software Software Tools for Exchange EWGLAM 2003

Next Reference Version: LM: Future Plans Next Reference Version: Adaptations for new multi-layer soil model Update of Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Optimizations in two-timelevel scheme and prognostic precipitation Optimizations for the NEC Possibility of using additional GRIB tables More bug corrections EWGLAM 2003

LM: Future Plans (cont.) Optimization of MPE_IO etc. EWGLAM 2003

GME2LM: Changes in the last Year EWGLAM 2003

Adaptations for multi-layer soil model GME2LM: Future Plans Adaptations for multi-layer soil model Bug corrections and safety checks etc. EWGLAM 2003